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The five cartoons named in the title cannot be identified from the available information: no images, artists, outlets, dates, or captions are provided. Rather than inventing what they depict, this article explains the economic story their subject points to. Research published in 2026 links conflict-related disruption in energy and fertilizer markets with higher farm input costs, but the burden varied by farm and timing—and higher costs did not automatically translate into an equal loss of farm income or higher grocery bills.
Why the conflict can raise farm costs
Two main channels connect the conflict to U.S. farm budgets: nitrogen fertilizer and fuel. Nitrogen fertilizer production is energy-intensive, so changes in energy prices and supply routes can affect fertilizer markets. The Strait of Hormuz is one route relevant to energy and fertilizer flows, and disruption or uncertainty there can move prices. Diesel is another direct expense, used in farm operations and in transporting inputs and crops. The University of Illinois farmdoc analysis, Purdue’s March brief, and Associated Press reporting describe these connections (farmdoc; Purdue; AP).
These are market effects, not a uniform surcharge on every farm. The amount a grower paid depended on when fertilizer was purchased, which product was used, crop and input mix, and whether application or planting decisions could be adjusted. Higher crop prices could also offset some added costs, though that did not guarantee every farm recovered them.
What the reported fertilizer prices show
Illinois farmdoc’s May 5, 2026 analysis gives examples of how timing affected exposure. These are Illinois price observations, not a national average or a bill paid by every grower:
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| Product and location | Earlier comparison | Later observation |
|---|---|---|
| Anhydrous ammonia, central Illinois | $828 per ton average from September 2025 through February 2026 | $1,123 per ton in the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Illinois Production Cost Report on April 17, 2026 |
| 28% nitrogen solution, Illinois | $436 per ton average from September 2025 through February 2026 | $543 per ton on May 1, 2026, reported as a 25% increase |
Farmdoc said farms that bought fertilizer before February 2026 were relatively protected for that crop year, while farms that delayed purchases were more exposed. It anticipated broader cost effects for the 2027 crop. The timing distinction matters: a price reported in spring does not tell us what every farmer paid for inputs already purchased.
Why estimates of losses differ
Published analyses measure different things and use different assumptions. Iowa State’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development modeled potential effects on the U.S. corn sector using USDA and futures price estimates from before and after the war. Its April 2026 brief said oil and fertilizer prices rose by nearly 50% in the weeks after the market reaction. Under its model, corn growers stood to lose $6 billion in revenue and face $4 billion in additional costs, producing an approximate $6 billion reduction in profits, or producer surplus. The brief also estimated a roughly $13 billion loss in total U.S. corn supply-chain sales, including about $10 billion in U.S. gross domestic product. These are conditional model results, not audited realized losses for all farmers (Iowa State CARD).
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Purdue’s March 2026 brief emphasizes that growers may respond by adjusting fertilizer use or crop choices, and that commodity-price responses may mitigate some added expenses. Such adjustments can help, but they may carry trade-offs, including potential yield effects; they are not proof that each grower made up the cost increase. The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s later analysis adds a different comparison: in late September 2026, diesel prices were over 75% higher than a year earlier, and its estimates put the added fuel cost for corn at about $0.11 per bushel while corn prices had risen by more than $0.80 over the comparison period. Those figures use national cost-and-return estimates, fuel prices, and average yields for selected crops; they compare fuel costs with crop prices, not total farm expenses with net income (Kansas City Fed).
The Center for American Progress reported urea prices 27% above prewar levels and fuel prices up 51% from prewar times in its 2026 analysis. These are figures attributed to CAP’s analysis and its timing, not current price quotes. CAP advances a policy argument about the conflict’s costs; its framing should be distinguished from the local price observations, university analyses, and Federal Reserve comparison above (Center for American Progress).
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Do higher farm costs mean higher grocery prices?
Not in a one-for-one relationship. Farm fertilizer expense is only a small share of the final supermarket price, according to an agricultural economist quoted by AP. Fuel can also affect transport and packaging through other channels, but that does not establish that grocery prices must rise in proportion to fertilizer costs. Iowa State agricultural economist Chad Hart told AP: “However, the increased fertilizer prices shouldn’t significantly lead to grocery store increases even as they put a crimp in farmers’ profits.” That is a comment about the expected relationship, not a guarantee that food prices will not change for other reasons.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What can—and cannot—be said about the five cartoons
Without the actual cartoons or identifying details, it is not possible to say what any one of the five depicts, who created it, when or where it appeared, or whether the works share a particular argument. The economic evidence supports a narrower account: conflict-related energy and fertilizer market disruption was associated with higher input costs, with uneven effects across farms and important uncertainty about net income. It does not establish that every farm paid the same amount, that the conflict alone caused every price movement, or that each modeled loss became a realized loss.
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