The project described as “set up to fail” was New Branch IT (NBIT), the Post Office’s planned replacement for Fujitsu’s Horizon system. Nigel Railton, then interim chairman of Post Office Ltd, told the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry on 8 October 2024 that two foundational decisions had made NBIT exceptionally difficult to deliver: defining success as simply “getting off Horizon” and choosing to build the replacement in-house.
Railton’s statement was his assessment as a witness, not a final finding by the inquiry. It matters because NBIT was intended to move the Post Office away from the technology at the centre of a major accounting and justice scandal, yet the replacement itself became a costly, delayed and governance-heavy programme.
What NBIT was—and what it was not
NBIT means New Branch IT. It was designed to replace Horizon in Post Office branches and support the accounting, transaction and operational functions on which branch work depends. Horizon, supplied by Fujitsu, was the existing system associated with unexplained accounting shortfalls, wrongful prosecutions and severe financial and personal consequences for sub-postmasters.
That distinction is essential: NBIT was the attempted replacement, not the system blamed for the original prosecutions. The statutory inquiry is examining the wider Horizon failures, the Post Office’s response, governance, accountability, redress and lessons for the future. Its hearing archive is at postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/hearings, with the government’s overview at GOV.UK.
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What Nigel Railton told the inquiry
Railton said NBIT needed to be reset because its original design contained two “fundamentally wrong” decisions.
1. The goal was to escape Horizon, not define the future platform
Railton’s criticism was that “getting off Horizon” became the project’s strategic objective. Leaving a discredited supplier and system was understandable, but it is narrower than specifying what the Post Office needed from a safe, maintainable and resilient branch platform.
In transformation terms, that distinction can affect every decision: the timetable, success measures, data migration, payments, accounting controls, branch support, resilience and fallback arrangements. A programme driven mainly by a reputational or supplier-exit deadline can encourage a rushed replacement and measure success by whether the old system has been removed, rather than whether the new one works reliably at scale. That is an interpretation of the problem Railton described, not a formal inquiry conclusion.
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2. The Post Office chose to build the replacement internally
An in-house build can give an organisation more control over architecture, product priorities, data and long-term capability. It can also reduce dependence on a controversial incumbent. But it requires a mature engineering and product organisation, sustained funding, security and architecture governance, rigorous testing, release management, operational ownership, and the ability to recruit and retain specialist staff.
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Railton’s evidence was that the Post Office had not created the structure and capability needed to make that choice dependable. The issue was not that internal development is always wrong; it was the apparent mismatch between the chosen model and the organisation’s delivery capacity.
The contractor concentration
Railton said about 80% of people working on NBIT were contractors. That figure is his evidence rather than an independently audited workforce statistic. He linked the arrangement to high cost, turnover, loss of institutional knowledge and difficulty retaining the capability needed to own and challenge the system.
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A contractor-heavy team can provide specialist skills quickly, but it may leave the permanent organisation unable to explain design decisions, manage suppliers or operate the service after contracts end. For a branch system that must be supported continuously, that creates a risk of apparent capacity without durable ownership.
How the money and timetable changed
Computer Weekly reported that an Infrastructure and Projects Authority assessment rated NBIT “currently unachievable” and that the reported estimate had risen from about £180 million to £1.1 billion. The same coverage reported a delay of up to five years.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →| Measure | Reported position | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Initial estimate | Approximately £180 million | Earlier reported project estimate |
| Later forecast | Approximately £1.1 billion | Revised forecast reported in connection with the programme; not proof of final audited spending |
| Original replacement target | 2025 | Target reported in coverage of the inquiry’s final phase |
| Forecast discussed by Railton | 2028 | His October 2024 assurance and forecast, not a completed outcome |
| Reported delay | Up to five years | As reported by Computer Weekly |
These figures should not be collapsed into a claim that the Post Office had already “spent £1.1 billion”. A revised budget or forecast is different from money paid, money still required and the eventual whole-life cost. Railton said he was confident the programme could be completed in 2028 without exceeding the then-current £1.1 billion forecast; that was an assurance at the hearing, not evidence that the date or cost was ultimately achieved.
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The core figures and Railton’s evidence are reported by Computer Weekly.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why this was a governance failure as well as a software problem
NBIT’s difficulties illustrate several failure modes that go beyond coding.
Strategic and governance risks
- Defining success as supplier exit rather than a safer operating model.
- Starting development before agreeing the target branch and technology model.
- Allowing a reputational deadline to substitute for a credible delivery plan.
- Insufficient independent challenge of optimistic cost and schedule assumptions.
- Unclear accountability among executives, contractors, suppliers and government.
- Continuing a programme after its business case or delivery assumptions no longer looked credible.
Delivery risks
- Complex integration with payments, accounting, branch operations and support.
- Incomplete testing, migration, continuity and fallback arrangements.
- Changing requirements without a controlled baseline.
- Weak product ownership and knowledge retention.
- The danger of attempting a high-risk, effectively “big bang” transition from a critical live system.
Replacing a transaction and accounting platform across a national branch network is not an ordinary software upgrade. It requires the organisation to keep branches operating while data, controls, support processes and supplier responsibilities change underneath them.
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- This USB drive provides plug and play simplicity with the included 18 inch USB 3.0 cable
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Why the Horizon history made replacement urgent
The Post Office needed to move beyond a system that had lost the confidence of many sub-postmasters and the wider public. But a new platform could not, by itself, resolve wrongful convictions, compensation claims or questions about who made and challenged earlier decisions.
The inquiry’s work concerns that wider chain: technical evidence, Post Office management, legal strategy, disclosure, governance, supplier conduct, government oversight and redress. NBIT was therefore a second-generation crisis: an organisation already damaged by a technology scandal struggled to deliver the technology intended to leave that scandal behind.
What happened after the October 2024 evidence?
In February 2026, Computer Weekly reported that the in-house NBIT route had run into trouble and had eventually been axed, with the Post Office pursuing a different approach to replacing Horizon and removing Fujitsu’s role. That is a later reported development, not part of Railton’s October 2024 testimony.
The report described a possible combination of separate supplier arrangements covering continued Horizon support, cloud migration and a new platform. It does not, on its own, establish the final 2026 contract awards or architecture. Those details should be treated as unconfirmed unless supported by a later official Post Office or government announcement. See Computer Weekly’s February 2026 account.
What the evidence means for accountability
Railton’s phrase “set up to fail” should be read as a criticism of conception and management, not as proof that one decision or one supplier caused every problem. The significant pattern is the combination of an escape-focused objective, an ambitious internal build, heavy contractor dependence, weak capability retention, rising forecasts and inadequate challenge.
For a publicly important organisation, replacing Horizon was necessary. The evidence also suggests that technology decisions must be matched to internal skills, independent assurance, realistic sequencing and clear accountability. Otherwise, changing the system can reproduce the governance failures that made the original system so damaging.
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