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No verified public evidence shows that Trump administration officials used ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, Gemini, or another chatbot to create the April 2, 2025 “reciprocal” tariff schedule. The connection arose because analysts and technology writers found that several chatbots could produce a similar deficit-based formula. That resemblance shows the method was simple enough to reproduce—not that an AI system wrote U.S. trade policy.
What Trump announced on April 2, 2025
Executive Order 14257 established an additional 10% tariff on imports generally, scheduled to begin April 5, 2025, plus higher country-specific rates listed in an annex and scheduled for April 9. The White House called them “reciprocal tariffs,” although the rates were not simply mirror images of each trading partner’s published tariff schedule. The original order also listed exceptions and interacted with existing product-specific duties, so an announced country rate was not necessarily an importer’s complete cumulative tariff burden.
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Read the Executive Order 14257 for the original dates, rates and exclusions.
The apparent formula in one minute
The Tax Foundation and other analysts found that the country table was broadly consistent with this calculation:
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Tariff-like rate = the greater of 10% or (U.S. goods trade deficit with a country ÷ U.S. imports from that country)
In plain English, the method starts with the bilateral goods deficit, divides it by the value of goods imported from that country, and applies a 10% floor. Analysts describe this as an inferred reconstruction of the table; the administration’s formal explanation uses a broader “tariff equivalent” framework.
The independent reconstruction is discussed by the Tax Foundation.
A rounded Vietnam example
Reported 2024 figures used in coverage put U.S. imports from Vietnam at approximately $136.6 billion and the U.S. goods deficit at approximately $123.5 billion:
$123.5 billion ÷ $136.6 billion ≈ 90.4%
That produces a result close to the roughly 90% figure shown for Vietnam before later policy changes. These are rounded figures tied to the data used for the 2025 announcement, not a permanent or current Vietnam tariff rate. The reported calculation appears in Techmeme’s coverage.
What the administration said it calculated
The U.S. Trade Representative’s paper says the rate was theoretically necessary to eliminate a bilateral goods trade deficit. It treats a persistent deficit as evidence of a combined burden from tariffs, non-tariff barriers, taxes, regulations, currency effects and other economic conditions. The White House order similarly argues that trading partners’ policies, including measures that suppress domestic consumption, contribute to persistent U.S. goods deficits.
That is different from saying officials measured each foreign tariff and copied it. The official rationale is a proxy: use the deficit-related ratio as an estimate of the overall barrier supposedly facing U.S. exports. The methodology is set out in USTR’s “Reciprocal Tariff Calculations” paper.
Why the formula looked like a chatbot answer
Reports said ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and Claude generated similar deficit-to-import calculations when asked for a simple way to balance trade between countries. The convergence is understandable:
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- The equation is short and easy to explain.
- A prompt asking for a “reciprocal” or “balancing” tariff points toward a single percentage.
- When a question omits trade-theory details, language models often return a neat aggregate rule rather than a product-by-product analysis.
WinBuzzer reported the chatbot comparison in its April 3, 2025 article. But several systems arriving at the same elementary arithmetic establishes convergence on a simple answer, not its provenance.
What would prove that AI helped write the schedule?
A firm attribution would require evidence connecting a particular government process to a particular AI system, such as:
- Internal prompts, chat transcripts or exported conversations.
- Testimony from an administration official who used the system.
- Procurement, account-access or usage records.
- Drafts, version history or metadata linking the formula to generated text or code.
- A direct government confirmation that an AI system produced the schedule.
The publicly described evidence does not establish any of these. A matching equation, social-media post or chatbot demonstration cannot by itself show that ChatGPT, Grok or another named service was used.
Why economists criticized the calculation
A deficit is not a foreign tariff rate
A bilateral deficit can reflect consumer demand, comparative advantage, exchange rates, savings and investment patterns, supply chains and the types of goods traded. It is not a direct measurement of the tariff charged on American products.
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The denominator can create extreme percentages
Dividing by imports turns a dollar balance into a rate. When imports are relatively small, even a modest imbalance can generate a very high percentage. As the deficit approaches the import value, the ratio approaches 100%; depending on data definitions, it can exceed 100%. A trade surplus could produce a zero or negative ratio, but the 10% floor may still impose a positive rate.
Aggregate data hide product-level facts
A country-wide percentage cannot show which industries face barriers. One nation may charge high duties on a narrow group of products while leaving most goods relatively open; the aggregate ratio does not identify that pattern. The method also focuses on goods, so services, investment flows and supply-chain relationships can produce a very different picture.
Data and classification matter
Census trade figures can be revised. Re-exports, transshipment, customs treatment and special territories can affect country-level totals. Existing duties, including product-specific measures, are separate from the additional rate announced in April 2025.
The Tax Foundation characterized the approach as economically unsound and warned that it could penalize mutually beneficial trade. That criticism addresses the method’s assumptions, not proof of how officials produced it.
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Was it really “reciprocal”?
In ordinary trade language, a reciprocal tariff usually means applying roughly the same tariff that a trading partner applies to U.S. goods. The administration used a broader definition: the deficit ratio was presented as a proxy for the combined impact of tariffs, non-tariff barriers, taxes, regulations and structural conditions. Whether that proxy is economically persuasive is separate from whether the label accurately describes a mirror-image tariff.
How to assess the claim
| Evidence level | What can responsibly be said |
|---|---|
| Established | The administration announced the rates; analysts found a simple deficit/import ratio consistent with much of the table; U.S. documents described a deficit-balancing methodology; multiple chatbots reportedly produced similar arithmetic. |
| Plausible but unproven | An employee may have used an AI tool for brainstorming, drafting or checking calculations, or may have independently reached the same formula. |
| Unsupported | “ChatGPT wrote the tariff plan,” “Grok calculated the official rates,” or “the matching formula proves AI was involved.” |
What changed after the announcement
The April 2 order was the starting point of the formula controversy, not necessarily the final tariff regime. Later executive orders changed rates and implementation in response to retaliation, negotiations and China-related arrangements, including:
- April 2025 modifications for retaliation and alignment.
- July 2025 extension of modified rates.
- November 2025 China-related modification.
Therefore, the controversy concerns the formula announced on April 2, 2025. It should not be treated as a complete description of tariff policy on August 18, 2026, or at any later date.
What a more conventional reciprocal analysis would examine
A conventional assessment would look beyond one aggregate ratio, including:
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- Documented non-tariff barriers, subsidies and discriminatory regulations.
- Services trade, exchange rates and macroeconomic conditions.
- Supply-chain dependence, domestic availability and likely consumer and producer effects.
- Retaliation risks and obligations under WTO or bilateral agreements.
The Bottom Line
The tariff formula was simple enough for several chatbots to reproduce, but that is evidence of simplicity—not evidence that a chatbot wrote U.S. trade policy. The public record supports a comparison between chatbot outputs and the administration’s deficit-based method, not a verified claim that ChatGPT, Grok or another AI system created it.
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