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Yes—but only as an early, model-specific estimate. On September 15, 2024, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that first-weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max was below the comparable iPhone 15 period. His figures were based on supply-chain checks and Apple Store delivery estimates, not audited sales reported by Apple. Later evidence showed a mixed result: the standard iPhone 16 models reportedly performed better than their predecessors, Apple later described overall iPhone 16 demand as strong, and regional results varied sharply.
What Ming-Chi Kuo actually estimated
Apple opened iPhone 16 pre-orders on September 13, 2024, in the United States and numerous other markets. Two days later, Kuo published an estimate covering the opening pre-order weekend.
| Measure | Kuo’s estimate | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Total iPhone 16-series first-weekend demand | Approximately 37 million units | Nearly 13% below the comparable iPhone 15-series period |
| iPhone 16 Pro | Down 27% year over year | Compared with iPhone 15 Pro in the equivalent period |
| iPhone 16 Pro Max | Down 16% year over year | Compared with iPhone 15 Pro Max |
| iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus | Stronger than the prior generation | Kuo said the standard models did not offset the Pro-series decline |
These figures come from Kuo’s supply-chain survey and publicly visible Apple Store shipping windows, as reported by MacRumors on September 15, 2024.
“Demand” was not the same as confirmed sales
Kuo’s roughly 37-million figure was an estimate of early demand, not a unit-sales tally released by Apple. Apple does not normally publish model-by-model iPhone pre-order counts, and its financial reporting emphasizes aggregate product-category revenue rather than individual model units.
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- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
Shipping dates are useful signals, but they can also reflect inventory allocation, production planning and regional supply constraints. The careful wording is therefore “Kuo estimated approximately 37 million first-weekend pre-orders,” not “Apple sold exactly 37 million iPhones.” The estimate also cannot by itself establish a full-quarter or full-year sales result.
Why Kuo thought Pro demand was softer
Apple Intelligence was not available at launch
Kuo attributed part of the weakness to Apple Intelligence not being available when the phones began shipping. Initial features were scheduled for iOS 18.1 in October 2024 rather than launch day, even though Apple marketed the lineup as built for its AI platform. Apple’s launch announcement described several capabilities as arriving later; see Apple’s September 2024 announcement.
That timing matters for an upgrade decision. A customer paying a Pro premium for an AI-led reason could have postponed a purchase until the software was usable. The delay is verifiable; the claim that it caused the decline remains Kuo’s interpretation rather than an independently measured causal result.
Rank #2
- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
More intense competition in China
Kuo also pointed to competition in China, where Apple faced Huawei and other domestic brands. China is not a single, uniform demand environment: language support, patriotic purchasing, carrier and retailer promotions, currency conditions and macroeconomic pressures can all change the result.
Apple’s fiscal 2024 filing reported lower Greater China net sales and cited lower iPhone and iPad sales among the contributors. The filing is available through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Apple’s international launch materials also listed China among initial iPhone 16 Pro markets, while AI availability and language expansion followed a separate timetable; see Apple’s international announcement.
Other plausible explanations
Several factors could have reduced the urgency to upgrade, but they are not proven causes in Kuo’s estimate:
Rank #3
- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
- Many iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max owners were also eligible for Apple Intelligence, reducing its exclusivity as a reason to switch.
- The standard iPhone 16 models added prominent controls and camera features, potentially narrowing the perceived gap with Pro models.
- Some buyers may have waited for later software releases, promotions or clearer regional language support.
- Year-over-year comparisons can be affected by the previous generation’s inventory and shipping constraints, as well as changes in product mix.
Was the whole iPhone 16 lineup weak?
No. Kuo’s estimate described a split: the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus were reportedly stronger than the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus during the same pre-order window, while the Pro models were weaker. It is therefore inaccurate to turn a Pro-series warning into a claim that consumers rejected every iPhone 16 model.
Apple’s product positioning also differed by tier. Apple highlighted larger Pro displays, advanced cameras, 4K 120-fps Dolby Vision video, Camera Control, the A18 Pro chip, battery-life improvements and Apple Intelligence compatibility for the Pro models. Those are Apple’s stated features, not evidence that every buyer considered the upgrade worthwhile.
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October 2024: strong demand overall, but China remained difficult
In October 2024, Apple said it was seeing strong iPhone 16 demand while reporting continued weakness in China, according to The Guardian’s coverage of Apple’s quarterly results. That statement did not disprove Kuo’s launch-week estimate: it covered a later period, could refer to the lineup in aggregate, and came after Apple Intelligence began rolling out.
Rank #4
- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
January 2025: a regional AI signal
In January 2025, CEO Tim Cook said iPhone 16 sales were outperforming the prior year in countries where Apple Intelligence had launched. At the same time, Apple’s broader iPhone performance and Greater China revenue remained under pressure, as reported by Axios.
The most defensible reading is geographic and time-dependent: Apple Intelligence may have supported demand in some markets, but it did not create a uniform global surge. Pricing, promotions, replacement cycles, launch timing and local competition cannot be cleanly separated from the AI effect.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for buyers and investors
If you are deciding between a Pro and standard iPhone
- Choose Pro for specific hardware needs: the Pro camera and video system, larger display options, high-refresh experience and battery priorities matter more than an analyst’s early demand estimate.
- Consider the standard iPhone 16 for value: it offers the same generation’s core platform and Apple Intelligence compatibility without the full Pro premium, but with fewer Pro-oriented camera and display features.
- Check local AI availability: language, region and rollout timing determine whether Apple Intelligence is a present benefit or a future promise.
- Account for your current phone: an iPhone 15 Pro or Pro Max already supports Apple Intelligence, so AI alone may not justify an upgrade.
At launch, Apple advertised $180–$650 in credit for eligible iPhone 12-or-newer trade-ins and up to $1,000 with a carrier promotion, with terms varying by market and condition. Those were launch-era offers, not current prices. For a present purchase, verify terms through Apple Trade In and any carrier’s official installment offer. Carrier credits may require a qualifying plan, trade-in and multiple years of bill credits, so compare total cost rather than the headline discount.
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- 6.1" Super Retina XDR OLED, HDR10, Dolby Vision, 1000nits (typ), 2000nits (HBM), 2556x1179px at 460ppi, 3561mAh Battery
- 128GB 8GB RAM, Apple A18 (3nm), Hexa-core (2x4.04 GHz + 4x2.20 GHz), Apple GPU 5-core, 16‑core Neural Engine
- Rear camera: 48MP, f/1.6, wide + 12MP, f/2.2, ultrawide, Front Camera: 12MP, f/1.9, wide, iOS 18, upgradable to iOS 18.5
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If you are assessing Apple as an investment
A single pre-order estimate is not enough to forecast Apple’s revenue or stock performance. Investors need to separate unit demand from average selling price, Pro-versus-standard mix, promotions, regional results, gross margin and services revenue. Apple’s fiscal filing and later earnings commentary are more informative for that purpose than an early shipping-window survey, and this episode does not support a stock recommendation by itself.
How to state the story accurately
- Say that Kuo estimated weaker first-weekend Pro demand.
- Identify the September 15, 2024 date and the September 13 pre-order opening.
- Label the 37 million, 13%, 27% and 16% figures as estimates.
- Explain that standard iPhone 16 models reportedly performed better than their predecessors.
- Attribute the Apple Intelligence delay and China competition explanations to Kuo.
- Include later Apple comments showing that results varied by time, model and region.
The Bottom Line
Kuo identified a meaningful early warning for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, but his indirect pre-order estimate did not prove that Apple’s entire iPhone 16 generation failed. The full picture was mixed, with stronger standard-model signals, later demand improvement in some Apple Intelligence markets and continuing pressure in Greater China.
Quick Recap
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