Yes, the watch industry was under pressure in the first half of 2024, but it was not a uniform global collapse. The sharpest weakness was concentrated in China and Hong Kong and among more aspirational price bands, while many other markets held up better. For buyers, export data, retail availability and pre-owned prices describe different parts of the market and should not be treated as interchangeable.
How severe was the slowdown?
The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reported that Swiss watch exports fell 3.3% year over year in January–June 2024, reaching CHF12.9 billion. That is a meaningful contraction for a sector heavily exposed to discretionary spending, but exports are shipments leaving Switzerland, not confirmed purchases by end consumers. The FH explicitly cautions that its statistics do not represent sell-through at the retail counter.
An export decline can therefore reflect inventory already held by distributors, delayed orders or changes in trade flows as well as weaker consumer demand. No single authoritative global sell-through figure was available for this period. Deloitte’s survey of more than 6,000 consumers in Switzerland and major export markets provides consumer context, but survey sentiment is not a substitute for transaction data.
China and Hong Kong were the main drag
The regional split explains why the headline number should not be read as a uniform worldwide decline.
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- China: Swiss watch exports fell 21.6% in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
- Hong Kong: Exports fell 19.9% year over year.
- All other markets combined: Exports increased 1.0%.
The FH linked the pressure in the Chinese market to the property-sector crisis, high youth unemployment, weaker economic confidence, the strong Swiss franc and geopolitical tensions. Those factors reduce willingness or ability to make large discretionary purchases, and they can also cause retailers to order less inventory before a customer arrives.
Why the middle of the market felt weaker
Aspirational spending is more confidence-sensitive
Luxury watches priced around several thousand dollars often depend on bonuses, asset prices and confidence rather than basic necessity. When household finances feel uncertain, a buyer who might stretch for a new watch can delay the purchase, trade down or consider a pre-owned example. The same caution affects retailers, which may reduce forward orders.
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The Swiss franc raises the pressure
A strong Swiss franc can make Swiss-made watches more expensive in local-currency terms or squeeze exporters’ margins when prices cannot be raised immediately. It does not affect every brand or country equally, but it adds friction when demand is already soft.
Weakness was not evenly distributed by price
WatchCharts reported that declines accelerated during the second quarter among many brands positioned around the $5,000–$10,000 range on the secondary market. The evidence points to greater exposure in lower and aspirational bands than at the very highest end, where scarcity and wealthier buyers can provide more support. That is a market pattern, not a claim that every watch in a price band moved in the same direction.
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What happened to pre-owned watch prices?
WatchCharts showed a gradual monthly decline
WatchCharts’ Overall Market Index fell 0.4% in May 2024 and another 0.3% in June. Its July 2024 update said secondary prices were continuing to decline as the second half began. The index covers a basket of watches, so an individual reference can perform very differently.
Chrono24 also recorded a modest first-half fall
Chrono24’s ChronoPulse index showed a 0.83% decline in secondary luxury-watch prices during the first half of 2024, according to Chrono24’s 2025 summary of its 2024 data. ChronoPulse and the WatchCharts index use different baskets and methodologies; their percentages are directional signals, not figures that can be added together to produce a single market total.
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How to read the three different market signals
| Signal | What it measures | What it can tell you | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss export statistics | Value of watches shipped from Switzerland | Manufacturing and distribution demand by destination | Does not show final-customer sell-through or inventory already in stores |
| WatchCharts Overall Market Index | Secondary-market price movement for its tracked basket | Direction and pace of resale-price changes | Basket composition means results vary by brand, reference and condition |
| Chrono24 ChronoPulse | Secondary luxury-watch price movement using Chrono24’s methodology | A separate directional view of resale pricing | Different coverage and methodology from WatchCharts |
| Deloitte consumer survey | Reported attitudes and intentions from more than 6,000 respondents | Evidence of confidence and purchase sentiment | Intentions are not completed transactions |
New versus pre-owned: what the downturn means for a buyer
If you are considering a new watch
- Do not assume weaker exports automatically mean an official retail-price cut. Export shipments, brand list prices and local dealer discounts are separate decisions.
- Check the exact reference, region, tax treatment, warranty and delivery date. A store with excess stock may negotiate even when the brand has not changed its list price.
- Buy because the watch fits your budget and intended use, not because a small monthly index movement appears to identify a perfect entry point.
If you are considering a pre-owned watch
- Compare several completed or currently offered examples of the same reference, including age, condition, service history, box and papers. A broad index cannot price those differences for you.
- Budget for authentication, servicing, shipping, taxes and the seller’s return policy. A lower sticker price can disappear once those costs are included.
- Treat resale-value forecasts cautiously. The first-half indexes indicate softening in aggregate, but they do not guarantee that a particular model will fall further or recover quickly.
A practical comparison checklist
- Identify the exact reference and compare like-for-like condition.
- Calculate the all-in cost, including taxes, insurance, servicing and delivery.
- Verify seller reputation, authenticity protections and return terms.
- Check warranty coverage and the likely cost of the next service.
- Decide how long you expect to own the watch; a short holding period exposes you more to transaction costs and price volatility.
What to monitor after the first half of 2024
For a clearer picture, follow regional export releases rather than a single global headline, watch secondary indexes by price tier and brand, and distinguish asking prices from completed transactions. Changes in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, currency movements and consumer-confidence measures will help explain whether weakness is broadening or remaining concentrated. Retail availability may improve even while resale prices fall, or vice versa, because inventory and demand adjust at different speeds.
The first half of 2024 therefore describes a selective correction: a pronounced regional shock, softer demand for many aspirational watches and modest aggregate declines in the secondary market, alongside resilience elsewhere. A purchase decision should start with the specific watch and its total cost, then use industry statistics as context rather than as a guarantee of future value.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
