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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Elon Musk’s 2024 warning was partly borne out: transformer supply and access to grid capacity became serious constraints for some projects, especially large data centers. But the evidence does not show that the world—or the United States as a whole—ran out of electricity in 2025. The more precise problem was that power, wires, substations and equipment could not always be delivered to the right place quickly enough.
What Musk predicted about AI, transformers and electricity
Speaking during a February 2024 Q&A connected with the Bosch Connected World conference, Musk described a sequence of potential constraints on AI development: first chips, then voltage transformers, then electricity generation. He warned that AI and electric-vehicle growth were increasing demand for electrical equipment and power, and suggested that by the following year—2025—there might not be enough electricity to run all the AI chips being produced. New Atlas reported his remarks; Reuters separately reported the core claim in April 2024.
This was Musk’s personal forecast, not a projection issued by Tesla, a grid operator or a reliability regulator. His quip about “transformers to run transformers” also played on two unrelated meanings: transformer neural networks are an AI architecture, while electrical transformers change voltage in power systems.
What electrical transformers do
Electricity typically travels from generators at high voltage over transmission lines, then passes through substations and transformers that lower the voltage for industrial, commercial and residential use. Other transformers step voltage up for efficient long-distance transmission. The equipment serving a data center depends on where and at what voltage it connects; there is no single transformer type used by every AI server.
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- Large power transformers are specialized, high-value equipment used at transmission substations and major grid connections.
- Distribution transformers lower voltage nearer to customers, serving local networks and loads such as buildings, factories and charging facilities.
- Medium-voltage equipment and data-center power-conversion systems may also be needed within a project. They are not interchangeable with utility transformers.
A shortage can therefore mean long procurement times for a particular class of equipment, not an absence of every kind of transformer everywhere.
Why AI and EV growth put pressure on different parts of the grid
AI data centers concentrate demand
AI training relies on clusters of high-performance processors, while inference—the use of trained models—can create recurring demand as services run. A data center also needs cooling, networking, storage, backup power and electrical conversion equipment. A large campus can request a substantial amount of power at one location, potentially requiring a new substation, transmission upgrades or dedicated generation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies electricity supply, grid connections and power-equipment supply chains as material issues for data-center expansion. IEA, Energy and AI; IEA, AI and energy security.
EV demand is more distributed, but not always small
Electric vehicles draw power through home charging, commercial and fleet depots, fast-charging stations, and the factories that make vehicles and batteries. A single household charger usually adds demand differently from a large data-center campus. But a cluster of fast chargers, a fleet depot or a manufacturing site can create significant local demand and require distribution or substation upgrades. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) lists data centers, EVs and charging stations, and renewable generation among drivers of future U.S. distribution-transformer demand. DOE distribution-transformer announcement.
| Feature | AI data center | EV charging |
|---|---|---|
| Typical load pattern | Concentrated at one site; often continuous, with demanding uptime requirements | Distributed across many locations, except at large fleet or fast-charging hubs |
| Common infrastructure needs | Substations, transmission capacity, backup systems and cooling | Chargers, local distribution upgrades and, in some cases, transformers and substation work |
| Potential flexibility | Some workloads may shift, but uptime and service demands limit flexibility | Charging schedules can often be adjusted, depending on drivers’ needs and site operations |
Both trends increase electricity needs, but they do not necessarily compete for identical equipment at the same point in the grid.
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What the evidence showed about transformer supplies
On transformers, Musk’s warning was directionally credible. In a February 2025 report, the IEA said procurement times for large power transformers had reached as long as four years under the industry conditions it examined. It also reported that power-transformer prices had risen about 75% in real terms since 2019. These figures concern power transformers and do not mean every local distribution transformer takes four years to obtain. IEA executive summary; IEA supply-chain findings.
For the United States, DOE’s cited data show distribution-transformer lead times increasing from roughly three to six months in 2019 to 12 to 30 months in 2023. That is the period covered by those figures, not a separate measurement of conditions in 2025. DOE supply-chain and market analysis.
Long waits reflect more than AI and EV demand. DOE has also identified post-pandemic demand and supply-chain disruption, workforce constraints, component and materials shortages, and an aging grid as pressures on transformer supply. Renewable-energy and transmission construction, manufacturing expansion and broader electrification add to demand. DOE supply-chain background. The evidence supports the conclusion that AI and EV growth intensified an existing equipment problem, not that either one caused it alone.
Why a grid can have electricity but still be unable to serve a project
Electricity supply is not just a question of how much energy a country generates over a year. A project needs enough capacity at the right location and time, along with a workable connection to the grid. A region could have sufficient annual energy yet lack spare capacity at a particular substation, a transmission path to move power, an available transformer, or a completed interconnection review.
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- Generation constraint: available power plants cannot meet demand at a particular time or under stressed conditions.
- Transmission constraint: lines cannot move enough power to the area where it is needed.
- Distribution or substation constraint: local equipment cannot safely serve a new large load.
- Interconnection delay: studies, upgrades, approvals or construction needed to connect a project are not complete.
- Equipment constraint: the required transformer or other grid hardware has a long procurement or installation timeline.
A power contract does not by itself guarantee that the grid connection and equipment will be ready on the project’s schedule. The IEA analysis says grid constraints could delay around 20% of global data-center capacity planned for construction through 2030. This is an estimate of capacity exposed to connection delays, not a confirmed count of projects that will be canceled or a record of what happened in 2025. IEA, AI and energy security.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did Musk’s 2025 prediction come true?
The answer depends on which part of the warning is being evaluated.
| Part of the warning | Retrospective assessment | What the evidence establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Transformers would become a major constraint | Broadly supported | Long procurement times and rising prices were documented for specified transformer categories; they were not universal measures of every transformer market. |
| AI and electrification would increase electricity pressure | Supported, with geographic and timing limits | Demand and connection concerns increased, but the effects varied by region and project. |
| The world would lack enough electricity for AI chips in 2025 | Too broad as a literal global claim | The cited evidence does not establish a universal worldwide, or U.S.-wide, electricity shortage in 2025. |
The IEA’s Electricity 2025 described strong demand growth through 2027, driven by data centers as well as transportation, buildings, industry and cooling. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2025 long-term assessment projected substantial demand growth over the following decade, with digital-economy data centers accounting for much of the increase in its forecast. That is a forward-looking reliability assessment, not proof of actual consumption or a shortage in 2025. NERC long-term reliability assessments.
Later U.S. data help explain why the concern persisted: the Energy Information Administration reported in March 2026 that U.S. electricity demand grew about 1.7% per year from 2020 to 2025, compared with 0.1% per year from 2005 to 2019. That is an observed national demand trend, not evidence that AI alone drove it or that electricity ran out. EIA analysis, March 12, 2026.
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How to judge a claim about an electricity or transformer shortage
When a utility, company or commentator warns of a shortage, these questions reveal what is actually constrained:
- Which equipment? Distribution, medium-voltage or large power transformers have different roles and procurement timelines.
- Where? A finding about the United States, a North American planning region or global data-center capacity may not describe a particular utility territory.
- What does “shortage” mean? It could mean limited inventory, long lead times, higher prices, delayed connections or insufficient generation. Those are related but different problems.
- What period and baseline? A comparison with 2019 differs from one based on post-pandemic conditions; a forecast through 2030 is not an observed 2025 result.
- What is the source? A manufacturer’s order book, a utility’s connection queue and a reliability regulator’s outlook answer different questions.
- Is hardware the binding constraint? A project may instead be waiting on generation, transmission construction, permitting, an interconnection decision or skilled workers.
What could ease the bottlenecks
Addressing a delayed connection can require several measures at once: more transformer manufacturing, grid modernization, new generation and transmission, and better coordination between utilities and large-load developers. Standardized equipment can simplify manufacturing, while domestic production may improve supply resilience but affect costs. Faster connections also have to be balanced against reliability: adding a large load before the supporting capacity is ready can put pressure on the local system.
Projects may consider dedicated generation, storage or flexible operations, but each choice brings different costs, permitting requirements and environmental effects. More efficient AI systems could reduce energy use per task; if lower costs spur much greater use, total demand may still rise. No single remedy addresses every regional constraint.
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