U.S. shoppers did not abandon the 2025 holiday season, but they managed it more carefully. Bank of America Institute measured household credit- and debit-card spending up just 1.3% year over year in November 2025, while Deloitte’s survey found planned Black Friday–Cyber Monday spending falling to $622. Consumers looked for discounts earlier, split payments more often and showed a wider gap between higher- and lower-income households.
That pattern is caution—not proof that Americans broadly stopped buying or that every card purchase became unaffordable. Payment volume shows what was charged, not whether a balance was carried, paid in full or financed at a high rate.
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Holiday spending kept growing, but at a slower pace
Bank of America Institute’s aggregated proprietary card data found total credit- and debit-card spending per household rose 1.3% year over year in November 2025. The average concealed a sharp income divide: spending by higher-income households increased 2.6%, compared with 0.6% for lower-income households.
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What the income split means
Higher-income households had more room to maintain or increase purchases, while lower-income households’ much slower growth is consistent with tighter budgets. It does not establish how much any household earned, borrowed or carried forward on a card; the dataset measures transactions.
Planned Black Friday budgets were smaller
Deloitte’s 2025 holiday survey projected average Black Friday–Cyber Monday spending of $622, down 4% from the prior year. Among respondents who planned to cut back, 69% cited a higher cost of living and 43% cited financial constraints. Those are stated intentions, not completed transactions, but they show that shoppers entered the event with a lower target.
Price sensitivity was also explicit: 47% said gifts cost more than a year earlier, and 34% believed retailers were discounting less. At the same time, the season remained active. TransUnion found 57% expected to spend the same amount or more than the previous year, 58% expected to spend more than $250, and 55% were optimistic about their household finances.
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Shoppers moved deal hunting into October and early November
The calendar changed because consumers wanted more time to find a price they could accept. Deloitte reported that 76% planned to use deals beginning earlier in November, while 68% viewed October promotions as the start of the holiday season. Sixty percent had already placed items in carts for Black Friday–Cyber Monday, and 42% planned to use cashback websites.
Building a cart early can help a shopper watch a price, compare sellers and avoid a rushed purchase. It can also create a temptation to add items simply because a promotion is available. The useful test is the final cost against the original plan, not the size of a banner discount.
People were still shopping in stores and online
Mastercard reported U.S. retail sales excluding autos up 4.1% on Black Friday and 3.3% on Cyber Monday. Its survey of more than 4,000 consumers found 90% shopped in stores. Adobe Digital Insights reported $44.2 billion in U.S. online Cyber Week sales, up 7.7% year over year, in its 2026 release covering the 2025 season.
These numbers cannot be placed on a single leaderboard: Mastercard’s measure excludes autos and is not inflation-adjusted, while Adobe measures online commerce. They nevertheless show that caution changed timing, prices and payment choices more than it eliminated shopping.
Credit cards and BNPL helped stretch cash flow
Payment flexibility was common. Deloitte found 64% planned to use credit cards or buy now, pay later (BNPL) to stretch Black Friday–Cyber Monday budgets. NerdWallet’s holiday survey found 74% planned to use credit cards and 38% BNPL for holiday expenses. TransUnion said credit cards were the preferred payment method for 42%, up from 38% in 2024.
Using a card is not the same as carrying debt. A purchase can be paid in full when the statement arrives, while a revolving balance can accrue interest. BNPL generally divides a purchase into scheduled installments, but missed payments, late fees, account restrictions or other terms depend on the provider and plan.
What the available risk measures show
NerdWallet reported that 19% of holiday spenders expected a credit-card bill they could not pay in full and on time. Among BNPL users, 38% expected not to make payments in full and on time. Bank of America’s aggregate data showed a small but rising share of retail spending through BNPL, yet little overall indication of excessive reliance on cards or BNPL.
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The results are not contradictory. A minority can face repayment difficulty even when aggregate use does not look excessive. Neither card transaction totals nor survey intentions alone reveal the interest rate, existing balance, income or emergency savings of a particular shopper.
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Compare the option against the complete cost and the date the money leaves your account, rather than the advertised installment or discount.
| Option | Cash-flow timing | Main cost to check | When it is safer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pay from available cash | Money leaves immediately | Opportunity cost and the risk of reducing an emergency cushion | The purchase fits the budget without using money needed for bills |
| Credit card paid in full | Payment is due on the statement’s schedule | Annual fee, foreign or other account fees, and any failure to pay the full statement balance | The full balance is reserved before buying and will be paid by the due date |
| Credit card revolving balance | Part of the cost is deferred beyond the statement | APR, interest, fees and the date a promotional rate ends | Only with a documented payoff plan and room in future budgets |
| BNPL installments | Several scheduled payments over the plan term | Late or other fees, automatic-payment risk and the consequences of a missed installment | Every installment is affordable alongside existing obligations |
NerdWallet senior writer Liz Weston advised: If you do need to make purchases that you can’t afford to pay in full by the billing cycle, look for cards with 0% APR offers.
A 0% offer is promotional, not a guarantee of affordability: eligibility, the promotional end date, required minimum payments and the post-promotion APR vary by account. Borrow only an amount that can be repaid before the terms change.
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A practical checklist for a cautious holiday purchase
- Set the total limit first. Include gifts, travel, food, shipping and expected returns rather than budgeting for gifts alone.
- Record the all-in price. Add shipping, taxes, membership requirements and any installment or late fees; compare that figure with other sellers and earlier prices.
- Decide the repayment source. For a card, identify the cash that will pay the statement. For BNPL, list every installment date alongside rent, utilities and other debt payments.
- Check the timing. An October or early-November deal can be useful, but buying earlier only helps if the item is needed and the return window will not expire before the gift is opened.
- Stop when the plan is full. A discount that causes an unplanned purchase is not savings.
How to read the headline numbers without overclaiming
- Bank of America: aggregated proprietary card data, November 2025; not necessarily representative of all U.S. consumers.
- Deloitte and TransUnion: surveys of stated expectations, not records of completed purchases.
- Mastercard: U.S. retail excluding autos, with a separate in-store survey; its sales figures are not inflation-adjusted.
- Adobe: online commerce only, reporting $44.2 billion for Cyber Week and a 7.7% year-over-year increase in its 2026 release.
Because the sources use different populations, periods and definitions, their percentages should not be added together or treated as one national spending total.
Does more card spending mean more holiday debt?
No. The 2025 evidence supports a more limited conclusion: shoppers continued to spend, but many lowered planned event budgets, waited for deals and used payment tools to manage timing. Card and BNPL use can coexist with full, on-time repayment. The debt risk appears concentrated among people who cannot meet the scheduled payment, and the available surveys show that risk was higher among BNPL users than among credit-card users.
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The most reliable personal indicator is not the amount charged by other shoppers. It is whether the buyer can pay the full card statement or every installment without missing essential expenses or borrowing again.
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