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The iPhone 17 helped make 2025 a growth year for smartphones, but it did not protect the market from the memory crunch that followed. IDC’s latest cited forecast projects worldwide shipments will fall 13.9% in 2026 to about 1.09 billion phones, a historic annual contraction. Apple is expected to fare better than Android overall, not escape the downturn.
How the iPhone 17 lifted the 2025 forecast
In December 2025, IDC forecast that global smartphone shipments would rise 1.5% year over year to 1.25 billion units, revising its earlier growth estimate of 1%. IDC attributed much of the improved outlook to the iPhone 17 series and raised its Apple shipment forecast to more than 247 million units, up 6.1% year over year from a previous 3.9% estimate. It also forecast Apple device revenue above $261 billion, up 7.2%. These were forecasts, not audited final shipment or sales results. IDC’s smartphone-market forecast
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China was an important part of the stronger Apple outlook. IDC said Apple ranked first there in October and November 2025, with more than 20% share in those months. It revised its forecast for Apple’s fourth-quarter China growth from 9% to 17%, and changed its full-year China smartphone-market outlook from a 1% decline to 3% growth. The figures establish a strong market outcome and a major contribution from Apple; they do not isolate which iPhone 17 features caused buyers to choose it.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteShipments are phones sent into the distribution channel, not a direct count of devices activated or bought by end users. A strong Apple shipment forecast can therefore coexist with a market that is not broadly healthy, and the iPhone 17 should be treated as a significant contributor to 2025 growth rather than its sole cause.
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- Please check with your carrier to verify compatibility.
- When you receive the phone, insert a SIM card from a compatible carrier. Then, turn it on, connect to Wi-Fi, and follow the on screen prompts to activate service.
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What is causing the memory shortage?
Smartphones rely on DRAM for working memory and NAND flash for internal storage. IDC says growing demand for AI infrastructure is intensifying the squeeze: memory makers are directing capacity toward higher-margin products such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 used in data centers. That leaves less relative capacity for conventional DRAM and NAND used in consumer devices. IDC’s analysis of the memory shortage
IDC forecast 2026 supply growth of about 16% for DRAM and 17% for NAND, below historical norms. Those rates describe expected supply growth, not a guarantee that every phone maker will receive enough components. IDC later expected the shortage and elevated memory prices to persist through 2026 and likely into 2027, rather than return to 2025 levels within its forecast horizon. IDC’s February 2026 outlook
How the 2026 forecast deteriorated
The scale of the change is clearer when the forecasts are read in order. These are successive IDC estimates, not a single fixed prediction:
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- This phone is unlocked and compatible with any carrier of choice on GSM and CDMA networks (e.g. AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, US Cellular, Cricket, Metro, Tracfone, Mint Mobile, etc.).
- Please check with your carrier to verify compatibility.
- When you receive the phone, insert a SIM card from a compatible carrier. Then, turn it on, connect to Wi-Fi, and follow the on screen prompts to activate service.
- The device does not come with headphones or a SIM card. It does include a generic (Mfi certified) charger and charging cable.
- Tested for battery health and guaranteed to have a minimum battery capacity of 80%.
| Forecast point | IDC’s 2026 global shipment outlook | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | Down 0.9% | Initial outlook as memory constraints began to affect expectations. IDC |
| February 2026 | Down 12.9% | A sharper revision amid higher memory costs and supply constraints. IDC |
| June 2026 | Down 13.9%, to about 1.09 billion units | IDC’s later forecast, described as the steepest annual contraction in smartphone-market history. IDC |
Quarterly figures show the downturn was already visible in shipments. IDC reported that Q1 2026 shipments fell 2.9% year over year to 293.8 million units, and that Q2 shipments fell 6.7% to 277.5 million. Quarterly declines do not, on their own, establish how many consumers delayed or canceled purchases; they are evidence of weaker channel shipments. IDC’s press-release archive
Part of the timing also reflects vendors pulling shipments forward in late 2025 to get ahead of expected memory-price increases. That can lift shipments temporarily and make the subsequent slowdown look sharper; it is distinct from the underlying shortage and does not prove demand itself improved. IDC’s February 2026 outlook
Why a memory squeeze can cut phone shipments
Memory shortages affect phones through both availability and cost. The sequence is not identical for every manufacturer, but the main pressures are:
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- This phone is unlocked and compatible with any carrier of choice on GSM and CDMA networks (e.g. AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, US Cellular, Cricket, Metro, Tracfone, Mint Mobile, etc.).
- Please check with your carrier to verify compatibility.
- When you receive the phone, insert a SIM card from a compatible carrier. Then, turn it on, connect to Wi-Fi, and follow the on screen prompts to activate service.
- The device does not come with headphones or a SIM card. It does include a generic (Mfi certified) charger and charging cable.
- Tested for battery health and guaranteed to have a minimum battery capacity of 80%.
- Higher component costs: More expensive DRAM and NAND increase a phone’s bill of materials and can squeeze a manufacturer’s margin.
- Higher retail prices or weaker margins: A vendor can absorb some of the increase, pass it to buyers, or use a mix of both. IDC described raising prices and shifting product portfolios toward more expensive, higher-margin models as possible responses.
- Production prioritization: When supply is limited or uneconomical, manufacturers may favor models that generate more profit per component. That can mean fewer lower-priced models, without implying that every premium phone will be readily available.
- Less demand at the low end: A price increase can be especially difficult for buyers with limited budgets, making upgrades easier to postpone and reducing the commercial case for the cheapest models.
- Possible configuration changes: A vendor could offer less memory or storage at a given price, but the available evidence does not establish this as a universal industry response.
Why budget Android phones face more pressure
IDC specifically warned that low- and mid-range Android devices are more exposed because their buyers are more price-sensitive. Lower-priced phones also leave manufacturers less margin to absorb a rise in memory costs. Smaller brands may have less purchasing leverage or less access to scarce components than the largest suppliers, though the effect varies by company.
The sub-$100 category is particularly vulnerable. IDC counted more than 170 million smartphones below $100 shipped in 2025 and said structurally higher memory and NAND costs could make that segment economically unviable. That is a warning about the business model, not a prediction that every phone below $100 will immediately disappear. IDC’s May 2026 forecast
Why Apple may be more resilient, but is not immune
IDC’s clearest explanation for Apple’s relative position is that it secured memory supply early. Its premium-heavy mix also gives it more room to absorb higher component costs or prioritize profitable models than a manufacturer dependent on low-margin devices. Strong iPhone 17 demand, including in China, adds support. These advantages can help Apple hold shipments or gain share while the total market shrinks; they do not ensure that every model or region is insulated.
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- Please check with your carrier to verify compatibility.
- Tested for battery health and guaranteed to have a minimum battery capacity of 80%.
IDC revised its 2026 iOS shipment outlook to a 5.2% decline, considerably less severe than the projected Android decline. Even that forecast is a decline, not immunity. Premium Android brands may also benefit from their product mix or secured supply, so the impact should not be reduced to a simple Apple-versus-all-Android divide. IDC’s smartphone-market update
A separate product-cycle assumption also affected IDC’s earlier iOS outlook: it said moving the next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 would reduce 2026 iOS shipments by 4.2% under that forecast. This is a forecast assumption about shipment timing, separate from the industry-wide memory and cost shock; it should not be read as the sole cause of the market contraction or as an independently confirmed Apple announcement.
Why average prices can rise as shipments fall
IDC’s December 2025 outlook estimated a 2026 average selling price (ASP) of $465 and market value of $578.9 billion. Its later forecast put 2026 ASP at about $550 even as it projected shipments down 13.9%. The estimates came from different forecast points, so the earlier price projection should not be treated as the current one. IDC’s December forecast and IDC’s May 2026 forecast
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- This phone is unlocked and compatible with any carrier of choice on GSM and CDMA networks (e.g. AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon, US Cellular, Cricket, Metro, Tracfone, Mint Mobile, etc.).
- Please check with your carrier to verify compatibility.
- When you receive the phone, insert a SIM card from a compatible carrier. Then, turn it on, connect to Wi-Fi, and follow the on screen prompts to activate service.
- The device does not come with headphones or a SIM card. It does include a generic (Mfi certified) charger and charging cable.
- Tested for battery health and guaranteed to have a minimum battery capacity of 80%.
There is no contradiction in fewer phones shipping while the average price rises. Price increases can offset some component, logistics, or other costs, and premium devices can make up a greater share of the phones that do ship. The result may be a more expensive market by average unit price without more phones reaching buyers; an ASP forecast is not a promise that every handset’s sticker price will rise by the same amount.
What this could mean for phone buyers
For consumers, the clearest risk is not a confirmed universal iPhone shortage but a more expensive and less varied market, especially at the low end. Depending on how individual manufacturers respond, buyers could see fewer compelling budget choices, higher prices, or less memory or storage for the same price. These are plausible industry responses to cost and supply pressure, not announced changes to every phone model.
If replacing a phone is optional, the economics may favor keeping a well-supported device longer rather than upgrading solely because a new model has arrived. If a replacement is necessary, compare total cost and storage needs, and check the specific model’s support and trade-in terms; financing can spread payments but does not reduce the purchase price. Regional currency movements, tariffs, transport costs, and subsidies can also affect what a buyer pays independently of memory costs.
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Forecasts can move as component supply, pricing, and channel inventory change. Useful indicators include:
Quick Recap
- DRAM and NAND pricing and whether supply growth meets expectations.
- Apple’s procurement and supply-chain commentary, alongside iPhone sell-through rather than shipments alone.
- Android manufacturers’ inventory, product mix, and changes to lower-priced portfolios.
- Quarterly shipment revisions and ASP estimates from market trackers.
- Whether AI-memory demand continues to redirect capacity from conventional consumer memory.
- Shipment and product availability in the sub-$100 and sub-$200 segments.
- Whether Apple gains share during an overall market contraction, and whether that reflects stronger demand or better component access.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
