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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesOn October 9, 2024, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said iPhone 16 sales were broadly matching Apple’s expectations and that no near-term production cutbacks were anticipated. The evidence was not an Apple-reported sales figure: it was a supply-chain assessment, including continued production of the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max during China’s National Day holiday.
That distinction matters. “Meeting expectations” did not mean the iPhone 16 was outselling the iPhone 15, and it did not prove that demand would remain strong throughout the product cycle. On October 23, Kuo reportedly said Apple had cut roughly 10 million iPhone 16 orders across the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first half of 2025, with most reductions affecting non-Pro models.
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What Kuo said on October 9
According to Kuo’s October 9, 2024 update, iPhone 16 sales were so far in line with Apple’s expectations. He also said Apple’s supply-chain production plans were not expected to be reduced in the near term.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →One signal was that suppliers continued producing the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max during China’s National Day holiday. Kuo interpreted that activity as evidence that demand for the Pro models was acceptable enough for Apple to maintain production.
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The report was based on supply-chain information, not an official Apple disclosure. Apple does not normally publish unit sales for individual iPhone models, so Kuo’s assessment should be treated as an analyst estimate rather than audited sell-through data.
9to5Mac’s report on Kuo’s October 9 assessment and Gadgets 360’s summary provide the relevant context.
Production, shipments and sales are not the same thing
Reports about the iPhone supply chain often use several terms interchangeably, but they describe different stages:
- Sell-through or sales: Phones purchased by customers.
- Shipments: Phones delivered to Apple’s stores, carriers and other sales channels.
- Assembly orders: Production instructions sent to manufacturers.
- Component orders: Orders for displays, processors, cameras, memory and other parts.
Kuo’s October 9 claim was primarily an inference from supplier activity and production plans. Continued assembly does not prove that every model was selling well. It may reflect stronger Pro demand, production commitments made before enough customer data was available, different manufacturing schedules or Apple’s decision to build inventory for the holiday season.
Why the “no cutbacks” detail was notable
Apple and its manufacturing partners can adjust component and assembly orders when demand materially differs from forecasts. The absence of an immediate broad reduction suggested that Apple did not see a reason, at that moment, to retreat from its near-term production plan.
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But “no cutbacks anticipated” was a time-sensitive statement. It was not a guarantee that orders would remain unchanged, nor did it rule out reductions for particular models. Production changes can also reflect inventory levels, product mix, manufacturing yields, component availability and updated forecasts—not just customer demand.
How the report compared with early pre-order estimates
The October 9 report followed a mixed start for the iPhone 16 lineup. Kuo had estimated first-weekend sales of about 37 million units, approximately 12.7% below the comparable iPhone 15 launch period. The estimate was based on Apple Store delivery times and a supply-chain survey, not confirmed Apple sales data.
The reported model-level estimates pointed in different directions:
| Model | Estimated change versus predecessor |
|---|---|
| iPhone 16 Pro Max | Down approximately 16% |
| iPhone 16 Pro | Down approximately 27% |
| iPhone 16 Plus | Up approximately 48% |
| iPhone 16 | Up approximately 10% |
The standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus were therefore estimated to be doing better than their predecessors in the first weekend, while the Pro models were estimated to be weaker. The gains in the standard models were not enough to offset the reported Pro decline in the aggregate estimate.
These figures should be read cautiously. Delivery windows can reflect inventory allocation, manufacturing capacity, regional logistics and launch planning as well as demand. A long delay can indicate constrained supply rather than unusually strong sales, while a short delivery window can reflect adequate inventory or weaker demand.
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- This product will have a battery which exceeds 90% capacity relative to new.
- Accessories will not be original, but will be compatible and fully functional. Product may come in generic Box.
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See 9to5Mac’s coverage and MacRumors’ summary for the earlier estimates.
“Meeting expectations” did not mean beating the iPhone 15
This is the most important qualification. Kuo’s benchmark on October 9 was Apple’s internal expectations—not necessarily the iPhone 15 generation.
Before launch, Kuo estimated approximately 89 million iPhone 16 shipments for 2024, slightly below the roughly 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered or shipped in the comparable period. That suggested Apple was planning for broadly flat demand rather than a major upgrade cycle.
As a result, weaker first-weekend estimates could still be consistent with Apple’s plan if Apple’s expectations were conservative. A product can meet a cautious forecast while selling fewer units than its predecessor.
Kuo’s earlier shipment outlook is the reason the October 9 headline should not be rewritten as “the iPhone 16 was selling strongly.”
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The model mix mattered
“iPhone 16 demand” was not one uniform trend. The available estimates suggested:
- The iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max were weaker relative to their predecessors during the early pre-order period.
- The standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus were stronger relative to the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus in the same estimate.
- Pro production was still continuing during the October holiday period.
A later report made the split even more important. On October 23, Kuo reportedly said Apple had reduced iPhone 16 orders by approximately 10 million units across the fourth quarter of 2024 through the first half of 2025, with most of the reductions affecting the non-Pro models.
That later report did not necessarily contradict the October 9 update. The two reports covered different dates and different parts of the lineup. It is possible for Pro production to hold up in early October while Apple later reduces standard-model orders after receiving more sales and inventory information.
The reported production estimates in the October 23 coverage were approximately 80 million units for the fourth quarter of 2024, 45 million for the first quarter of 2025 and 39 million for the second quarter of 2025. These were analyst estimates, not Apple disclosures. Read the later 9to5Mac report and Investing.com’s account for that follow-up.
Apple Intelligence was a timing problem, not proof of failure
Apple positioned Apple Intelligence as a major reason to consider the iPhone 16 generation. However, the first Apple Intelligence features were not available at launch; they began arriving with iOS 18.1 in October 2024.
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That limited the feature’s ability to drive launch-day upgrades. Availability also varied by region and language, and China presented an especially important complication because Apple Intelligence was not initially available there.
Kuo had warned before launch that expectations for an AI-driven demand increase might be too optimistic. That is a proposed explanation for uncertain demand, not proof that Apple Intelligence caused weak sales or that the feature failed. The delayed rollout could also have supported later holiday demand, meaning launch data alone could not settle its long-term effect.
Apple’s official September 2024 announcement confirms the product and launch context, but it does not verify Kuo’s sales or production estimates.
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What the October 9 report did—and did not—tell buyers
The report suggested that Apple was not making an immediate broad production retreat at that specific point in time. It did not establish that:
- the iPhone 16 was a commercial success;
- iPhone 16 revenue would rise;
- stock would remain scarce;
- Apple would avoid later discounts;
- Apple Intelligence had already increased demand; or
- the Pro models were outselling the standard models.
For someone deciding whether to buy an iPhone 16, this analyst update is therefore weak evidence about future pricing or availability. A purchase decision should instead consider the current price, trade-in value, software-support horizon, model differences and any carrier requirements. Current availability and offers can change substantially from the 2024 launch period; check Apple’s official buying page and Trade In page for current terms.
How to interpret the headline accurately
- Start with the date: Kuo’s positive assessment described the situation on October 9, 2024.
- Identify the metric: It primarily concerned supply-chain production and order activity, not confirmed customer sell-through.
- Use the correct benchmark: Matching Apple’s expectations is different from growing faster than the iPhone 15.
- Separate models: Early estimates showed stronger relative performance for the standard models and weaker performance for the Pro models.
- Include subsequent information: The October 23 report of roughly 10 million order reductions materially changed the longer-term interpretation.
The most defensible reading is that Kuo’s October 9 statement was an accurate snapshot of Apple’s near-term production posture as he understood it. It was not a final verdict on lifetime iPhone 16 demand. The later order-cut report shows why supply-chain commentary must always be read with a date, a model breakdown and a clear distinction between estimates and official results.
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