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Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that iPhone 16 Pro pre-orders fell about 27% year on year during the launch weekend, while iPhone 16 Pro Max pre-orders fell about 16%. His estimate put pre-orders for the full iPhone 16 lineup at about 37 million, down roughly 12.7% from the comparable iPhone 15 period. These were analyst estimates—not Apple-reported sales—so they point to a weaker start, not proof that the phones’ full sales run failed.
What the launch-period estimates showed
Kuo, an Apple supply-chain analyst at TF International Securities, published his estimate after the iPhone 16 pre-order opening in September 2024. He drew on supply-chain surveys, Apple Store delivery estimates in major markets, estimated production plans and pre-launch shipments. The figures below describe estimated first-weekend pre-orders compared with the corresponding iPhone 15 models; Apple did not report these model-level sales numbers.
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| Measure | Kuo’s estimate |
|---|---|
| iPhone 16 Pro | About 27% fewer pre-orders year on year |
| iPhone 16 Pro Max | About 16% fewer pre-orders year on year |
| iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus | Stronger than the corresponding iPhone 15 models |
| Entire iPhone 16 lineup | About 37 million first-weekend pre-orders, approximately 12.7% below the comparable iPhone 15 period |
Kuo’s estimate and methodology and contemporary coverage of the model-level figures indicate a mixed launch: the sharper weakness was in the Pro models, while the standard models reportedly improved. It is inaccurate to say that confirmed iPhone 16 sales fell 12.7%; that percentage refers to an estimate of first-weekend pre-orders across the lineup.
Why Pro demand may have started more slowly
Apple Intelligence was not ready on launch day
Apple promoted the iPhone 16 family as built for Apple Intelligence, but the first public features arrived later through software updates, beginning with iOS 18.1 in October 2024. The gap between the hardware launch and the software features may have reduced the immediate upgrade incentive for customers drawn chiefly by AI. Kuo identified the delayed rollout as a factor, but the pre-order estimate does not establish how much it affected demand—or prove that it caused the decline. Availability also depended on language and region; Apple’s release announcement described the initial rollout.
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- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
Competition in China was a broader pressure
Kuo also pointed to intense competition in China. Huawei and other domestic brands were part of the environment, and Huawei’s Mate XT trifold launch received attention at the time. But the evidence does not show that one device caused Apple’s estimated decline. Local-brand preference, pricing, distribution, trade-in support and the lack of initial Chinese-language Apple Intelligence availability are relevant context, not individually proven causes. Contemporary reporting on Huawei’s launch helps explain the competitive backdrop.
Hardware changes may not compel every recent owner to upgrade
The iPhone 16 Pro models brought an A18 Pro chip, Camera Control, larger displays than their predecessors, camera changes and compatibility with Apple Intelligence. Those are documented product differences, but Apple’s launch announcement does not show how buyers valued them. For someone already using an iPhone 15 Pro, the practical case to upgrade could depend on whether the camera controls, display size or later AI features mattered enough to outweigh the cost. That is a plausible interpretation of demand, not a measured explanation for Kuo’s estimate.
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Why a pre-order estimate is not a final sales verdict
Delivery estimates are a useful but imperfect demand signal. A shorter wait can mean Apple prepared more inventory or allocated it more effectively, not necessarily that fewer people ordered. A longer wait can reflect constrained production or regional stock allocation rather than unusually strong demand. Kuo’s supply-chain and delivery-time evidence is informative, but it is not audited sell-through data.
- Pre-orders capture an opening period, not all purchases after retail availability.
- Order timing and channels vary by country, while carrier promotions and trade-in offers can shift purchases after launch.
- Holiday promotions can change the later sales mix; the Pro Max comparison may also be affected if iPhone 15 Pro Max supply was unusually constrained.
- Regional results may differ, so one estimate should not be treated as a uniform global response.
- Unit volume and revenue can diverge: a weaker Pro share could affect average selling prices even if total iPhone sales remained resilient.
A stronger assessment of the launch would put Apple’s reported revenue and management commentary first, then consider independent shipment or sell-through estimates, channel data and delivery observations. Apple generally does not disclose unit sales for each iPhone model, so the public evidence does not provide a direct model-by-model sales tally.
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- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
Launch timing and what could change the picture
Apple announced the iPhone 16 family on September 9, 2024. Pre-orders opened September 13 in initial launch markets, and retail availability began September 20. The first Apple Intelligence features were still to come. Apple’s event announcement and iPhone 16 and 16 Plus announcement give the launch schedule and initial-market context.
At the time of the estimate, software releases and seasonal promotions were possible later demand catalysts—not evidence that a rebound had already happened. Kuo said Apple’s near-term production plans were unlikely to change significantly, despite softer estimated Pro demand, and pointed to later opportunities including Apple Intelligence and holiday selling periods. That initial assessment does not support claims that Apple immediately slashed production. See contemporary reporting on Kuo’s production outlook.
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- Titanium frame combines strength and lightness, giving the iPhone 16 Pro a premium feel while reducing weight for prolonged daily use. The polished edges and textured back enhance grip and handling, making it easier to use during long calls, gaming sessions, or when capturing photos and videos on the move.
What this means for a buyer
The pre-order figures alone are not a reason to treat the iPhone 16 Pro as a failed product or to assume that a discount is imminent. A buyer weighing an upgrade should compare the features they will use with the effective purchase cost, including any eligible trade-in or carrier offer. Apple’s Trade In and carrier offers pages show options whose value depends on location, device condition, plan and current terms. The launch evidence does not establish current prices or offers.
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Verdict: a weak Pro opening, not proven failed sales
Kuo’s launch-period estimates support the conclusion that iPhone 16 Pro pre-orders started weaker than the comparable iPhone 15 cycle, and that the Pro models pulled down the lineup’s estimated opening despite stronger results for the standard models. They do not establish that Apple’s final iPhone 16 sales or revenue failed expectations. That stronger claim would require later sales, shipment or financial evidence beyond a pre-order estimate.
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