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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchHigher interest rates increase federal borrowing costs, enlarge budget deficits and, when the government borrows to cover those deficits, add to future debt and interest costs. The increase is gradual rather than instantaneous: most Treasury securities carry fixed rates until they mature, so the average rate on debt held by the public rises as older securities are refinanced at newer market rates. The size of the effect depends on both the average rate and the amount of debt outstanding.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections illustrate the scale. In its February 2026 baseline, net interest outlays rise from $1.0 trillion in 2026 to $2.1 trillion in 2036, increasing from 3.3% to 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). Those are projections, not realized spending, and they will change with economic conditions, legislation and future forecasts.
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What higher rates do to the federal budget
The federal government continually rolls over maturing Treasury bills, notes and bonds while issuing new securities to finance deficits. If market yields are higher when those securities are replaced, the Treasury generally pays more interest on the replacement debt. Existing securities do not immediately reprice, so the budget impact builds as the debt stock turns over.
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CBO describes two channels in its October 2026 analysis: “In these scenarios, higher interest rates increase net interest costs and federal budget deficits in two key ways.” First, refinancing maturing securities becomes more expensive. Second, the larger interest bill increases the deficit, requiring additional borrowing that creates still more interest-bearing debt. CBO’s October 2026 report explains both channels.
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The first channel: refinancing
Treasury securities have different maturities and fixed coupon terms. A bond issued years ago may continue paying its original rate even after market rates rise. When it matures, however, the replacement security reflects current financing conditions. The average interest rate on debt held by the public therefore adjusts over time rather than jumping to the latest market rate in one day.
The second channel: borrowing the interest
Interest is part of federal spending. If tax receipts and other revenues do not cover total spending, including the higher interest bill, the government records a larger deficit. Financing that deficit requires more Treasury borrowing. The added debt raises the amount on which future interest is calculated, creating a compounding budget pressure.
Key terms: what the numbers actually measure
Net interest outlays
Net interest outlays are interest paid on debt held by the public minus interest income the federal government receives. They are the budget measure used in CBO projections. Interest paid between federal accounts, such as payments to government trust funds, is an intragovernmental transaction and does not increase the deficit. The distinction matters: a figure for net interest is not a tally of every interest payment made by the Treasury. See the definitions and projections in CBO’s February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook.
Debt held by the public
Debt held by the public is the stock of federal debt owned by investors outside the federal government, including households, banks, pension funds, businesses, foreign investors and the Federal Reserve. It is the debt measure used in the CBO projections discussed here. Intragovernmental holdings are accounted for separately.
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Primary deficit and total deficit
The primary deficit is the deficit excluding net interest outlays. The total deficit includes net interest. Separating them shows whether a change in the deficit comes from the government’s underlying revenue-and-spending balance or from the cost of servicing debt already accumulated. A higher rate directly raises net interest; it does not, by itself, change the primary deficit.
Baseline and scenario
A baseline is CBO’s projection under its stated economic assumptions and current-law framework. A scenario changes one or more assumptions—such as interest rates—and reports the conditional results. A higher-rate scenario is not CBO’s baseline forecast and should not be described as a prediction that the assumed rates will occur.
CBO’s 2026 baseline: the near-term interest bill
CBO’s February 2026 baseline projects that net interest outlays will rise substantially during 2026–2036. The figures below refer to the same baseline vintage and to net interest, not total federal spending.
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| Measure | 2026 | 2036 | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest outlays | $1.0 trillion | $2.1 trillion | Projected annual net interest spending in CBO’s February 2026 baseline |
| Net interest as a share of GDP | 3.3% | 4.6% | Projected interest burden relative to the size of the economy |
These amounts can rise even without a sudden rate shock because debt held by the public is projected to remain large and maturing securities must be refinanced. GDP growth can change the percentage measure, so a rising dollar total and a rising GDP share are related but distinct indicators. The projections are model-based estimates and will be revised as rates, inflation, growth, legislation and borrowing change.
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Why the effect is delayed
The timing of the pass-through depends on the Treasury’s maturity schedule. Short-term bills mature quickly and reprice more often; longer-term notes and bonds lock in their rates for years. When rates rise, newly issued securities and refinanced maturities carry higher yields, while older low-rate securities continue paying their contractual coupons until maturity.
That structure creates a gradual increase in the average rate paid on the debt stock. The delay can temporarily cushion the budget after a rate move, but it also means that a period of high rates can continue raising interest costs even if market rates later decline: securities issued during the high-rate period remain outstanding until they mature.
How interest costs feed the debt spiral
- Market rates rise. Treasury’s new borrowing and refinancing operations face higher yields.
- Average debt costs adjust. As maturing securities are replaced, a larger share of debt carries the higher rates.
- Net interest outlays increase. The federal budget records higher interest spending, net of interest income.
- The total deficit widens. Unless taxes rise or other spending falls, the higher interest bill is financed through additional borrowing.
- Debt held by the public grows. The larger debt stock creates a bigger base for future interest calculations.
- Future interest costs can rise further. The result is a feedback loop whose size depends on future rates, deficits, growth and inflation.
This loop does not mean every rate increase produces an equal dollar increase in debt. The outcome also depends on the primary deficit, the maturity mix of Treasury securities, economic growth and the inflation-adjusted cost of borrowing.
Long-term higher-rate scenarios: what changes by 2056
CBO’s September 24, 2026 analysis compares an extended baseline with a conditional scenario in which interest rates are 1 percentage point above the extended-baseline path. Both figures below use debt held by the public and express it as a share of GDP. They are not two competing current forecasts; one is the baseline path and the other is the result of the specified rate assumption.
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| Projection for 2056 | Debt held by the public as a share of GDP | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Extended baseline | 175% | CBO’s long-term path under its baseline assumptions |
| Rates 1 percentage point above the extended baseline | 222% | Conditional scenario showing the effect of persistently higher rates |
The 47-percentage-point difference is not a claim that rates will necessarily be one point higher. It shows how sensitive a very long debt path can be to a sustained change in borrowing costs. CBO presents the comparison in its September 2026 report.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.A separate 2026–2036 rate scenario
CBO’s October 2026 report uses a different horizon and assumption. In the forecast underlying that analysis, the average 10-year Treasury rate is 4.3% over 2026–2036. Its separate higher-rate scenario sets that average at 4.8%, or 50 basis points higher. These numbers should not be combined with the September long-term scenario: the horizons, rate changes and analytical setups differ. Details are in the October report.
Keeping those comparisons separate avoids a common error—treating every “higher-rate” number as if it came from one forecast. When reading a projection, identify the publication date, the time horizon, the Treasury-rate assumption, the debt measure and whether the result is a baseline or a scenario.
What a larger interest bill competes with
Net interest is an obligation that generally cannot be reduced by postponing a discretionary program in the same way as an agency’s annual appropriation. As it takes a larger share of the budget, policymakers have fewer resources available for other priorities unless they change taxes, mandatory programs or discretionary spending.
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- Discretionary programs: Higher interest can leave less room for annual appropriations such as infrastructure, research, defense or domestic services.
- Mandatory programs: Interest growth can intensify pressure to change programs whose spending is set by eligibility and benefit rules.
- Taxes and fees: Revenue increases can offset borrowing, but their budget effect depends on design and timing.
- Economic resilience: Large financing needs may make the budget more sensitive to future rate shocks, especially when substantial debt matures in a short period.
These are budget trade-offs, not automatic predictions about which program will be cut. The actual policy response determines how much of a rate increase appears as higher debt, lower primary spending or higher revenue.
How to read debt and interest projections correctly
- Check the measure. Confirm that the figure is net interest and that debt means debt held by the public, rather than gross federal debt or intragovernmental holdings.
- Check the units. A dollar amount measures annual budget cost; a GDP percentage measures the burden relative to the economy. Neither replaces the other.
- Check the vintage. CBO’s February, September and October 2026 publications use different assumptions and purposes. A later publication is not automatically a revision of every earlier scenario.
- Check the rate path. “One percentage point higher” and “50 basis points higher” are assumptions applied over specified periods, not descriptions of today’s rate.
- Check the deficit definition. Compare primary deficits when asking about underlying fiscal policy; compare total deficits when asking how much borrowing is required after interest.
- Check whether the result is conditional. Scenario figures show sensitivity to an assumption. They are not guaranteed outcomes.
Exploring the effect of policy changes
CBO’s 2026–2036 debt-service tool lets readers explore approximate changes in net interest costs, deficits and debt relative to CBO’s February 2026 baseline. It is useful for understanding direction and scale—for example, how a hypothetical revenue increase or spending change could alter borrowing and subsequent interest.
The tool’s results are approximate and do not constitute an official CBO estimate for a particular policy proposal. Treat an output as an illustration of the debt-service mechanism, not as a score that replaces a formal estimate.
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Practical takeaways for interpreting a rate increase
- Expect the federal interest bill to adjust over time as securities mature, not all at once when the central bank or market changes rates.
- Focus on both the average rate and debt held by the public; either one can increase the interest burden, and together they can magnify it.
- Distinguish net interest from intragovernmental interest and distinguish the primary deficit from the total deficit.
- Read long-term numbers with their rate assumptions and comparison baseline attached.
- Remember that CBO baseline figures are projections from a specific publication vintage, not records of realized spending.
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