Data-center growth is reordering industrial real estate primarily through electricity, connection schedules and site readiness. In selected North American markets, a large new electrical connection can take nearly five years, while data-center users are absorbing capacity faster than developers can deliver it. That makes parcels with credible power access more valuable and can put data-center campuses and logistics projects in competition for land, substations and transmission capacity.
The evidence does not show data centers broadly replacing warehouses. It shows a more local and more complex contest: data centers may outbid other uses for powered, entitled sites in particular submarkets, while logistics operators still prioritize highways, labor, customers and occupancy costs. The outcome depends on each location’s grid, permitting process, freight network and development timetable.
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The market shift is about power before it is about buildings
Traditional industrial site selection usually starts with transportation access, labor, customer proximity, zoning and rent. Data-center demand adds a constraint that can determine whether a project is feasible at all: a deliverable block of electricity at a known date. A site with inexpensive land is not useful for a high-density computing facility if the utility cannot provide capacity, the substation cannot be expanded or approvals will take years.
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That constraint changes the value of industrial land. Developers increasingly seek parcels with transmission proximity, existing substations, fiber connectivity and a realistic interconnection queue position. The same characteristics can matter to advanced manufacturing, cold storage and automated warehouses, but data centers generally require much larger and more concentrated electrical loads.
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JLL reported that grid connections for large new loads in major data-center markets were approaching five years on average in its 2026 energy research. Its North America year-end 2025 release separately described average connection timelines of four years or longer. Those figures use different wording and reporting contexts; together they indicate that power scheduling has become a multiyear real-estate decision rather than a late construction detail.
What the latest data says about data-center demand
CBRE’s North America H2 2025 summary, published in 2026, shows unusually tight data-center conditions in the eight primary markets it tracks. The figures describe data-center capacity, not warehouse demand.
| Measure | Reported result | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 net absorption | 2,497.6 MW | Eight primary North American data-center markets; 38% above 1,809.5 MW in 2024 |
| Year-end capacity | 9,432 MW | 36% higher than a year earlier in those markets |
| Year-end vacancy | 1.4% | Same eight-market data-center set |
| Average lease rate | $194.95 per kW per month | North American data-center average; up 6.5% year over year |
| Capacity under construction | 5,994.4 MW | Down from 6,350.1 MW at the end of 2024, as permitting, zoning and power-sourcing timelines lengthened |
Demand outpacing available powered space helps explain why developers and occupiers are willing to investigate less-established locations. It does not mean every industrial market has a data-center shortage or that every warehouse parcel is a candidate for conversion. The market statistics are concentrated in a defined set of data-center hubs.
CBRE described the dynamic directly in February 2026: “Demand is outpacing supply, while power and supply chain shortages are reinforcing a power-first approach that prioritizes sites with the fastest path to power.” The statement also points to on-site-generation approvals and transmission investment as conditions for unlocking more supply.
Are data centers taking land away from warehouses?
Sometimes a data-center proposal and a logistics proposal compete for the same broad category of industrial land, especially on the edge of a metropolitan area where large parcels, highways and utility corridors overlap. A municipality may also have to choose how to allocate scarce substation capacity or upgrade a road and water system for one major project rather than another.
However, the available evidence does not quantify direct warehouse displacement. It does not establish how many warehouses were demolished, cancelled or priced out because a data center won the site. Treating the issue as a nationwide replacement of warehouses would overstate what the market data supports.
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Why competition is local
Land competition depends on parcel characteristics. A data center may need a large, contiguous campus, security setbacks, cooling infrastructure and high-voltage service. A logistics building may be more flexible about parcel shape but may need trailer storage, highway access, employee parking and proximity to customers. Two projects can therefore be competitors in one industrial corridor and poor substitutes in another.
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What a displacement claim would require
A defensible claim that data centers are taking warehouses would need local evidence such as rezoning records, cancelled logistics projects, parcel-level sales, conversion counts or measurable changes in industrial vacancy attributable to data-center development. The cited market reports instead identify land and power availability as factors shaping where data centers can expand.
How data-center site selection changes industrial real estate
Electrical capacity and connection timing
For a data-center developer, the question is not simply whether a utility serves the parcel. The critical questions are how much firm capacity is available, when it can be delivered, what transmission or substation work is required, and whether the schedule is contractually credible. Long queues make an apparently available site less valuable than a smaller site with an executed interconnection plan.
Industrial owners should apply the same discipline to their own projects. Electrification of material-handling equipment, refrigeration, robotics or manufacturing processes can increase peak demand. A tenant that signs a lease before confirming service capacity may face upgrade costs, delays or operating limits.
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Data centers can trigger scrutiny over noise, backup generators, water use, emissions and visual impact. Entitlement risk therefore varies sharply by jurisdiction. CBRE’s Q1 2025 global report described tight conditions in established hubs and identified land or power availability as reasons developers considered other markets.
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For industrial investors, entitlement diligence should include the permitted use, maximum building and generator equipment, environmental conditions, storm-water requirements, utility easements and the public process for upgrades. A parcel marketed as “data-center ready” may still require zoning amendments or separate approvals for generation and cooling systems.
Connectivity and infrastructure delivery
Data centers require dense fiber routes and resilient network paths. Logistics projects need roads, truck circulation, labor access and dependable utilities. Shared infrastructure can create either synergy or conflict: a road widening or substation upgrade may improve several sites, while construction traffic and utility easements can constrain adjacent warehouse development.
The timing of these works matters to valuation. A site that receives power in two years may command a premium over one that receives the same capacity in five years, even if both have similar acreage. Investors should model carrying costs, taxes and interest during the waiting period rather than valuing only the completed building.
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Industrial properties also face a changing electricity-cost environment
Data-center demand affects industrial real estate even where no data center is built. JLL Research, citing BloombergNEF, reported that industrial power prices in six major markets rose approximately 18% from 2019 to 2024, compared with 4% growth in the preceding five-year period. This is a six-market comparison, not a universal index for every warehouse or state.
Higher prices can change logistics economics. A distribution center with refrigeration, automated storage or extensive charging may see a larger increase in operating expenses than a lightly powered warehouse. Lease structures also determine who bears the risk: a tenant paying utilities directly experiences the price change immediately, while a property owner with a pass-through arrangement may face collection and credit risk.
Reliability is as important as the tariff. Voltage interruptions can spoil temperature-sensitive inventory, stop automated systems or force a tenant to run backup generation. During site selection, operators should examine outage history, utility reliability programs, demand charges, curtailment provisions and the cost of redundant service.
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Development is spreading beyond traditional data-center hubs
JLL said 64% of a 35 GW North American data-center construction pipeline extended beyond traditional mature markets at the end of 2025. The measure describes the geography of a data-center pipeline; it is not a forecast of warehouse construction or industrial absorption.
CBRE identified interest in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Michigan where land, permitting conditions or potential power access could support expansion. Its Q1 2025 report also described strong absorption in Northern Virginia, Atlanta and Phoenix, power-procurement challenges in Chicago, and power-related expansion west of Chicago. These examples show why a national average can conceal very different local outcomes.
What outward movement means for logistics
New data-center locations can improve roads, substations and fiber, which may benefit nearby industrial users. They can also raise land prices, intensify competition for skilled electrical contractors and lengthen utility queues. A logistics market may gain infrastructure while losing some developable parcels or facing higher construction costs.
There is no automatic relationship between a data-center pipeline and warehouse demand. A region can attract both uses because of population growth and infrastructure investment, or it can see one use dominate a constrained corridor. Local rents, vacancy, labor availability and delivered power determine the result.
A practical framework for comparing an industrial site
Owners, tenants and investors can compare a logistics proposal with a data-center proposal using the same five lenses, then assign weights based on the property’s business plan.
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|---|---|---|
| Electrical capacity and schedule | How many megawatts are firm, when can service begin, and what upgrades are required? | Utility letters, interconnection studies, queue position, upgrade budget and milestone dates |
| Land and entitlement | Is the parcel large and usable enough, and are the intended buildings and equipment permitted? | Zoning map, title and easement review, environmental reports, site plan and approval calendar |
| Freight, workforce and customers | Can trucks, employees and suppliers reach the site efficiently? | Travel-time analysis, road capacity, labor data and customer-distance assumptions |
| Electricity cost and reliability | What are energy, demand and backup costs, and how often does service fail? | Tariffs, outage history, resiliency design and tenant load profile |
| Permitting and delivery risk | What could delay construction or prevent the planned operating date? | Agency schedules, contractor availability, equipment lead times and contingency allowances |
Step-by-step due diligence for owners and tenants
- Define the load and operating model. Estimate peak and average electricity demand, hours of operation, cooling or refrigeration needs, charging equipment and backup requirements. Do not rely on a generic “industrial” load assumption.
- Obtain written utility confirmation. Ask for available capacity, interconnection milestones, required customer-funded work, deposit terms and the conditions that could change the date.
- Map competing uses and infrastructure. Identify data-center proposals, substations, transmission projects, fiber routes, highway works and other large-load applications within the relevant service territory.
- Test entitlement feasibility. Confirm zoning, generator and cooling permissions, noise limits, water rights, environmental obligations, truck access and public-hearing requirements.
- Model the delivered occupancy cost. Include rent or land price, utility tariffs, demand charges, upgrade contributions, taxes, downtime and the cost of carrying a site during a delayed connection.
- Stress-test the schedule. Run cases for a one-year and two-year delay, higher electricity prices, a denied upgrade or a requirement for temporary generation. Compare the results with alternative sites.
- Set decision gates. Make acquisition, lease signing and construction starts conditional on specific utility, entitlement and financing milestones rather than on a broker’s informal availability statement.
Implications for different industrial stakeholders
Warehouse owners
Owners near power-constrained corridors should document service capacity, upgrade rights and the cost of future tenant electrification. A data-center proposal may create an alternative sale or redevelopment opportunity, but a premium is not guaranteed if the parcel lacks an executable power plan.
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Logistics developers
Developers can protect schedules by screening utility capacity before purchasing land. Sites with modest but reliable service may outperform more ambitious parcels that depend on an uncertain transmission project. Design flexibility—such as reserving space for electrical rooms, charging and future capacity—can preserve tenant options.
Occupiers
Tenants should separate building availability from usable capacity. A completed shell does not prove that the utility can support automation, refrigeration or fleet charging. Lease language should address utility upgrades, outage remedies, pass-through charges and the allocation of delay risk.
Investors and lenders
Underwriting should distinguish contracted power from aspirational capacity and distinguish a data-center pipeline from general industrial demand. Assumptions about rent growth, exit liquidity and redevelopment value should be tied to local evidence rather than to national data-center headlines.
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Risks that can make the trend look larger than it is
- Confusing capacity with buildings: Megawatts of data-center absorption measure electrical capacity, not square feet of logistics space removed from the market.
- Generalizing from a hub: A 1.4% vacancy rate in CBRE’s eight primary data-center markets does not describe warehouse vacancy nationwide.
- Ignoring the queue: A proposed substation or interconnection is not the same as energized service.
- Overlooking operating costs: Land discounts can disappear when demand charges, reliability equipment or utility upgrades are included.
- Assuming co-location benefits: New fiber or roads may help nearby warehouses, but construction impacts, labor competition and land prices can offset those gains.
What to watch next
The most useful indicators are local rather than headline national totals: utility interconnection queues, executed service agreements, substation and transmission construction, zoning decisions, industrial asking rents, warehouse vacancy, power tariffs and the number of projects that actually reach construction.
For data centers, CBRE’s reported decline in capacity under construction despite strong absorption highlights the importance of delivery constraints. For industrial property, the key question is whether infrastructure investment expands the pool of usable sites faster than power costs and entitlement delays raise operating and development expenses.
Data-center demand is therefore changing logistics and industrial real estate by making power, timing and infrastructure central to value. It can create direct competition for selected parcels and grid capacity, but the evidence supports a geographically uneven reallocation of opportunity—not a broad replacement of warehouses.
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