Neither Goodman Group nor Prologis can be called the better investment from the available figures alone. Goodman’s latest detailed report (the half year ended 31 December 2025) shows a large, highly occupied portfolio and a development pipeline dominated by data centres. Prologis’ latest detailed material (FY25) describes a global logistics platform and reports debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 5.3x. Those facts describe operating businesses, not expected shareholder returns. A defensible choice also requires same-date share prices, comparable valuation measures, aligned reporting periods, and your currency, tax and income objectives.
What this comparison does—and does not—answer
Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) and Prologis, Inc. (NYSE:PLD) are listed real-estate businesses with major logistics exposure, but the evidence available for each is not synchronized. Goodman’s detailed numbers below cover 1H FY26, ended 31 December 2025. Goodman’s investor archive records FY26 full-year results and a 2026 annual report published on 19 August 2026, but the detailed full-year figures are not included in the source material used here. Prologis’ detailed figures are from FY25. Treating the two sets as if they were identical periods would create a false precision.
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This is therefore a framework for deciding what to verify before buying either security, not a current buy or sell call. The central question is whether the price you would pay properly compensates you for each company’s growth opportunities, financing structure, execution risks and currency exposure.
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At-a-glance operating evidence
| Measure | Goodman Group | Prologis |
|---|---|---|
| Listing and reporting currency | ASX:GMG; Australian dollars (A$) | NYSE:PLD; US dollars (US$) |
| Detailed period represented | Half year ended 31 December 2025 (1H FY26) | FY25 results and annual filing |
| Operating result | A$1,203.5 million operating profit; 58.5 cents operating earnings per security; A$824.7 million statutory profit | The cited FY25 materials do not provide a directly matching Goodman-style operating-profit and operating-earnings-per-security set |
| Portfolio scale | A$87.4 billion total portfolio at 31 December 2025 | The cited FY25 materials describe a global logistics platform but do not provide a directly comparable portfolio total in the supplied figures |
| Occupancy and property-income growth | 95.9% occupancy; 4.2% like-for-like net property income growth at 31 December 2025 | The cited FY25 materials do not provide a matching occupancy and like-for-like NPI pair |
| Development pipeline | A$14.4 billion work in progress across 51 projects; forecast yield on cost of 8.1% | The supplied FY25 figures do not include a matching WIP value and forecast-yield pair |
| Data-centre and power exposure | Data centres represented 73% of development WIP; a reported 6.0 GW global power bank across 16 major cities | The supplied FY25 figures do not quantify a comparable data-centre WIP share or power bank |
| Leverage indicator | 4.1% gearing and 17.8% look-through gearing; definitions are company-specific | 5.3x debt-to-adjusted EBITDA in FY25; this is a different methodology from gearing |
| Distribution information | 15.0 cents per security for 1H FY26; 30.0 cents forecast for FY26, which is not guaranteed | The supplied FY25 figures do not include a directly comparable distribution forecast |
The table is a map of disclosed evidence, not a league table. A missing comparable figure is a reason to retrieve the companies’ same-date reports, not a reason to assume the other company is weaker.
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Goodman Group: what the latest detailed report shows
A diversified operating platform with a development-heavy growth engine
Goodman comprises Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited. Its stated activities span logistics, distribution, warehouse, light-industrial and data-centre assets. That combination means reported results can reflect several economic activities at once: rent from operating properties, gains or losses associated with property investment, development progress and management-related earnings.
The 1H FY26 result provides three different views of performance. Operating profit was A$1,203.5 million, operating earnings were 58.5 cents per security and statutory profit was A$824.7 million. Operating earnings are intended to describe the recurring operating outcome more closely than statutory profit, which can be affected by valuation movements and other accounting items. Before comparing Goodman with Prologis, identify the corresponding company-defined recurring measure in Prologis’ report rather than matching unlike profit lines.
Portfolio quality and current income
Goodman reported a total portfolio of A$87.4 billion and occupancy of 95.9% at 31 December 2025. Like-for-like net property income grew 4.2%. Occupancy helps indicate how much space is generating rent, while like-for-like NPI growth focuses on properties held across comparable periods. Neither metric alone reveals lease duration, tenant concentration, renewal spreads, incentives, market rents or the cost of maintaining and upgrading buildings. Those details matter when testing whether current income can persist.
For context, Goodman’s FY25 release reported an A$85.6 billion portfolio, 96.5% occupancy and 4.3% like-for-like NPI growth at 30 June 2025. The change between those dates should not be treated as a simple six-month trend without reconciling portfolio valuation, acquisitions, disposals, development completions and reporting definitions.
Development work in progress and forecast yield
Goodman reported A$14.4 billion of development work in progress across 51 projects. The company’s forecast yield on cost was 8.1%. Yield on cost is a project-level development measure: expected stabilized income divided by the cost basis. It is not a guaranteed return to shareholders, an earnings-per-share forecast or a total-return estimate. Delivery delays, construction inflation, leasing terms, financing costs, planning approvals and changes in market rents can all reduce the realized outcome.
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The scale of WIP makes execution a central part of the Goodman thesis. Investors should ask how much capital remains to be spent, when projects are expected to complete, whether customers have committed to space, how much development is funded from operating cash flow or debt, and what happens if demand or asset values weaken before completion.
Data centres, power and concentration risk
Data centres accounted for 73% of Goodman’s development WIP. Goodman also reported a 6.0 GW global power bank across 16 major global cities. The power-bank figure describes pipeline and strategic access, not completed data-centre capacity or revenue-producing facilities. Turning power access into operating assets requires grid connection, planning and environmental approvals, construction, equipment procurement, customer commitments and substantial capital.
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This exposure can raise growth potential because data-centre demand may support higher-value development opportunities. It also concentrates risk in power availability, permitting, construction delivery, technology requirements, customer credit and the timing of hyperscale or other large-customer commitments. A prudent model should separate secured projects from prospective capacity and should not capitalize the entire power bank as if it were contracted rent.
Balance sheet and distributions
Goodman reported 4.1% gearing and 17.8% look-through gearing for 1H FY26, alongside net tangible assets of A$11.18 per security. Look-through gearing is intended to capture exposures that may sit beyond the most immediate consolidated balance sheet, but the exact methodology and perimeter must be read in Goodman’s reporting notes.
The group declared a 15.0-cent-per-security distribution for 1H FY26 and forecast 30.0 cents for FY26. The forecast is management guidance, not a contractual payment. Test it against operating cash flow, development spending, debt maturities and the policy governing distributions. A high distribution can be less attractive than reinvestment if retaining cash would fund projects at compelling risk-adjusted returns; conversely, a pipeline can destroy value if it requires expensive capital.
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Prologis: what the latest detailed report shows
Global logistics scale, with FY25 leverage as the clearest supplied metric
Prologis’ FY25 results release and annual filing describe a global logistics real-estate platform that includes operating properties and development opportunities. The specific quantitative evidence supplied for this comparison is debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 5.3x. That ratio relates debt to an adjusted earnings measure and is useful for thinking about financing capacity and resilience, but it is not interchangeable with Goodman’s gearing percentages.
Debt-to-adjusted EBITDA can rise because debt increases, adjusted earnings fall, or both. Its usefulness depends on the adjustments, treatment of joint ventures, currency effects, secured versus unsecured debt and the period used for EBITDA. Review the definition in Prologis’ FY25 filing before comparing the ratio with any other landlord’s leverage statistic.
Why the Prologis evidence cannot be treated as a complete head-to-head snapshot
The supplied FY25 material does not provide a matching set of occupancy, like-for-like property-income growth, development WIP, data-centre exposure, net tangible assets or distribution guidance alongside Goodman’s 1H FY26 figures. That is a limitation of the comparison date, not evidence that Prologis lacks those metrics. Obtain Prologis’ next full-year or interim report and extract the company-defined measures on the same date as Goodman’s detailed FY26 results.
The comparison dimensions that actually drive an investment decision
1. Earnings growth and composition
Start by separating recurring property income from development profits, valuation movements and management or fee income. Development can accelerate growth but is lumpy and sensitive to project timing. Property income can be steadier but still changes with occupancy, lease expiries, rent reviews, incentives and operating costs. Compare each company’s recurring measure, growth rate and reconciliation to statutory profit for the same period.
2. Occupancy, leasing and property quality
Occupancy is only the first screen. Examine weighted-average lease expiry, tenant concentration, renewal probability, contractual escalations, market-rent reversion, geographic mix and the age and specification of buildings. A portfolio with slightly lower occupancy could produce better long-term returns if rents and lease terms are stronger; a high occupancy number can conceal near-term expiries or expensive incentives.
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3. Development execution
Goodman’s WIP and forecast yield demonstrate why development deserves its own analysis. Compare remaining spend, presales or preleases, construction timelines, cost-to-complete risk, expected stabilization dates and funding sources. Do not compare a forecast yield on cost with a stock’s dividend yield or an equity return. They measure different layers of the capital structure and different stages of an asset’s life.
4. Data-centre exposure and power constraints
Goodman’s data-centre weighting makes power and delivery a defining issue. Determine how much capacity is secured, permitted, under construction or merely being pursued. Check whether the economics depend on a small number of large customers and whether contracts transfer power-price, construction or obsolescence risk. Investors seeking a more traditional warehouse exposure may view this concentration differently from investors deliberately targeting digital-infrastructure growth.
5. Leverage and access to capital
Use a common framework before ranking balance sheets. Gather gross debt, cash, secured debt, maturities, interest coverage, fixed-versus-floating exposure, joint-venture obligations and undrawn facilities. Recalculate or reconcile each company’s leverage under consistent definitions. Goodman’s 4.1% gearing and 17.8% look-through gearing cannot be placed on a numerical scale beside Prologis’ 5.3x debt-to-adjusted EBITDA without that work.
6. Valuation and expected shareholder return
A high-quality property company can still be a poor investment when its shares price in too much growth. Retrieve same-day share prices and calculate relevant measures such as price-to-NTA, forward funds from operations or operating earnings, distribution yield, enterprise value to operating cash flow and the premium or discount to asset value. Use the same forecast period and currency conventions for both securities. None of those current valuation inputs are established in the supplied material, so an operating-metric comparison cannot produce a credible buy ranking.
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Goodman is an Australian-dollar security listed in Australia; Prologis is a US-dollar security listed in New York. Your realized return can differ from the underlying property return because of exchange-rate movements. Withholding tax, dividend or distribution treatment, estate-tax rules, account type, trading costs and the ability of your broker to access ASX:GMG or NYSE:PLD also vary by jurisdiction. These are personal circumstances, so verify them with a qualified tax adviser and your broker rather than assuming one company is universally more efficient.
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A practical process for choosing between GMG and PLD
- Align the dates. Download Goodman’s detailed FY26 annual figures and Prologis’ corresponding FY26 or latest interim report. Record the fiscal period beside every number.
- Normalize the accounting. Build a bridge from statutory profit to each company’s recurring operating measure, documenting valuation gains, development earnings, joint ventures and other adjustments.
- Normalize the property KPIs. Compare occupancy, lease expiry, rent growth and property-income growth only when definitions and periods match.
- Map the pipeline. Separate completed assets, construction WIP, permitted projects and early-stage power or land positions. Record remaining capital, expected completion and leasing status.
- Reconcile leverage. Put debt, cash, maturities and joint-venture exposure into a common schedule. Do not rank a gearing percentage against a debt-to-EBITDA multiple without a bridge.
- Calculate valuation at one timestamp. Use the same market close, currency conversion convention and forward-period assumptions for both securities.
- Stress-test the thesis. Model lower occupancy, slower rent growth, higher interest rates, construction overruns, delayed data-centre energization and weaker asset values. Observe the effect on distributions, covenants and required equity.
- Apply your investor constraints. Decide whether you need current income, long-duration growth, Australian or US market access, a particular currency exposure or a limit on development and data-centre risk.
Who might prefer each business model?
Goodman may suit an investor seeking development-led growth
Goodman’s disclosed profile may appeal to investors comfortable with a substantial development pipeline, data-centre execution and power-related infrastructure risk. The attraction is the possibility that projects convert into higher-value, income-producing assets. The trade-off is that forecast yield and pipeline value depend on delivery, leasing, funding and market conditions.
Prologis may suit an investor seeking global logistics scale
Prologis’ described global platform may appeal to investors who prioritize broad logistics exposure and want to analyze a mature, internationally diversified operating base. Its FY25 leverage disclosure makes debt capacity an important part of the case. The decision still depends on the current share price, the quality and growth of its recurring cash flows, and how its leverage behaves under weaker conditions.
These are profile descriptions, not recommendations. Either company can be attractive or unattractive at different prices.
Risks that can invalidate a seemingly strong comparison
- Period mismatch: comparing Goodman’s 1H FY26 operating figures with Prologis’ FY25 leverage can make one company appear more current than the other.
- Metric mismatch: gearing, look-through gearing and debt-to-adjusted EBITDA have different denominators and consolidation rules.
- Development underperformance: forecast yields can fall when costs rise, approvals slip, projects are delayed or leasing is weaker than expected.
- Data-centre delivery risk: a power bank is not the same as energized capacity, contracted revenue or completed facilities.
- Valuation risk: strong operations do not protect shareholders if the entry price already assumes unusually high growth.
- Currency and tax risk: exchange rates and local tax treatment can materially change an investor’s after-tax result.
- Distribution risk: Goodman’s FY26 distribution forecast is guidance, not a guarantee; distributions from any property company depend on cash flow, capital needs and board decisions.
What would justify a final preference?
A final preference should follow a completed, same-date worksheet containing recurring earnings growth, occupancy and leasing data, development commitments, debt and maturity schedules, distribution coverage, net asset value, share price and valuation multiples. It should also include a scenario analysis for rates, property values, construction costs and currency. Until those inputs are assembled, the evidence supports two distinct business exposures rather than a winner.
Bottom line
Goodman offers a clearly disclosed, development-intensive story with high reported occupancy and significant data-centre and power exposure. Prologis offers a global logistics platform whose supplied FY25 leverage measure is 5.3x debt-to-adjusted EBITDA. Neither set of facts establishes the better investment. Choose only after aligning periods and definitions, checking current valuation, and deciding which company’s risks and currency fit your portfolio.
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