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Did Virginia Data Centers Support $17 Billion in Economic Output in 2021?

By TheFinanceBase Team 5 min read

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Yes—but $17 billion is not the exact figure in the underlying report. A 2022 study by Mangum Economics, commissioned by the Northern Virginia Technology Council (NVTC), estimated that Virginia’s data-center industry supported $15.3 billion in total economic output in 2021. The study estimated $7.5 billion in direct output, with the balance coming from modeled indirect and induced effects. The frequently repeated $17 billion figure appears to be a rounded or imprecise restatement of that estimate.

The numbers at a glance

Measure 2021 estimate
Direct economic output $7.5 billion
Total modeled economic output $15.3 billion
Operational jobs 5,550
Construction and manufacturing jobs 10,230
Total supported jobs 45,460
Direct employee pay and benefits $1.6 billion
Total associated pay and benefits $3.6 billion
Estimated state tax revenue $174 million
Estimated local tax revenue Approximately $1 billion

These figures come from the 2022 Virginia Data Center Report, released in March 2022 and focused on activity during calendar year 2021.

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Why does one headline say $17 billion?

A Data Center Knowledge headline described the result as $17 billion. However, the report itself gives two central output figures: $7.5 billion in direct output and $15.3 billion in total output after modeled ripple effects.

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The available source material does not establish whether the $17 billion wording came from rounding, a different calculation, or an editorial mistake. The defensible version of the claim is therefore: the study estimated $15.3 billion in total modeled economic output, not exactly $17 billion.

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What “economic output” means

Economic output is broader than revenue received by the government and is not automatically the same as an increase in Virginia’s gross domestic product. It generally measures production associated with an activity, including its direct activity and estimated effects elsewhere in the economy.

  • Direct effects: Data-center operations, construction, and related manufacturing.
  • Indirect effects: Purchases from suppliers and contractors, such as electrical, mechanical, security, cooling, maintenance, and professional-services businesses.
  • Induced effects: Spending by workers whose income is connected to the industry and its supply chain.

The Richmond Fed summarized the $15.3 billion estimate as roughly 2.5% of Virginia’s economic output in 2021, while emphasizing that it was a study estimate rather than an independently reproduced official statistic. The report’s methodology and findings are described in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s analysis.

How many jobs were actually inside data centers?

The 45,460 figure refers to jobs supported across Virginia—not 45,460 permanent data-center employees.

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The report estimated approximately 5,550 operational jobs and 10,230 construction and manufacturing jobs as direct employment-related activity. After adding indirect and induced effects, it estimated 45,460 supported jobs. The report presented this as approximately 4.1 additional jobs elsewhere in Virginia for every operational data-center job, excluding construction jobs from that particular multiplier presentation.

Northern Virginia accounted for most operational employment: approximately 4,920 jobs, compared with about 330 in Southern Virginia, 250 in Central and Coastal Virginia, and 50 in the Valley and Western Virginia.

Pay and wages

The study estimated $1.6 billion in direct employee pay and benefits and $3.6 billion after associated ripple effects. The Richmond Fed reported that the average private-sector data-center employee in Virginia earned an estimated $134,308 in 2020, compared with approximately $62,250 for the average Virginia private-sector employee.

The wage comparison uses 2020 earnings, while the headline output estimate concerns 2021, so the two figures should not be treated as measurements from the same year.

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What tax revenue did the industry generate?

The report estimated that data centers were directly and indirectly responsible for approximately $174 million in state tax revenue and $1 billion in local tax revenue.

Those are gross revenue estimates, not proof that every locality received a net fiscal gain. Local governments may also incur costs for roads, public safety, planning, permitting, schools, water and sewer capacity, emergency response, grid infrastructure, and environmental review.

The report said Loudoun and Prince William counties received more than $13 in tax revenue for every dollar the counties invested in data centers. It did not provide equivalent calculations for every Virginia locality because comparable local data was unavailable. The Richmond Fed noted that the study considered local fiscal effects, including education and public-service costs, rather than merely counting tax receipts.

Who produced the study?

Mangum Economics prepared the report for NVTC, a technology-industry trade association. Sponsors and participants included data-center companies, utilities, economic-development organizations, and local groups, including CloudHQ, Digital Realty, Dominion Energy, Iron Mountain, Microsoft, and Vantage Data Centers.

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That sponsorship does not by itself invalidate the estimates, but it matters when weighing their independence. This was a commissioned industry study—not a government audit, official GDP calculation, or independent academic replication. NVTC and Mangum Economics modeled the industry’s broader economic effects; the Richmond Fed summarized the findings but did not independently reproduce the underlying model.

How Virginia’s tax exemption fits in

Virginia offers a sales-and-use-tax exemption for qualifying data-center computer equipment and software. According to Virginia Tax, the main requirements include:

  • Locating the facility in Virginia;
  • Making at least $150 million in capital investment;
  • Creating at least 50 new jobs paying at least 1.5 times the locality’s average salary; and
  • Entering into a memorandum of understanding with the Virginia Economic Development Partnership.

Special rules can reduce thresholds in certain distressed localities. Not every data center automatically qualifies, and the exemption should not be treated as the cause of the industry’s entire $15.3 billion modeled impact.

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Virginia’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) provides an important counterpoint. In its review of data-center and manufacturing incentives, JLARC found that the exemption was relatively effective at influencing location and expansion decisions, but that its economic benefit per dollar of forgone state revenue was moderate. It was also Virginia’s largest incentive by forgone revenue during the period examined and represented more than one-fifth of economic-development incentive spending from fiscal years 2010 through 2017.

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What has changed since 2021?

The 2021 estimate is a historical baseline, not a current 2026 measurement. Virginia now requires biennial reporting on the data-center sales-and-use-tax exemption. The 2024 report covered fiscal years 2022 and 2023, and Virginia published another report on January 2, 2026.

Those later reports address the tax-exemption program—its qualifying expenses, tax benefits, jobs, and related revenues—not precisely the same question as the 2022 industry-wide economic-impact study. They should therefore not be substituted for the 2021 $15.3 billion estimate.

What the claim does—and does not—prove

The evidence supports the conclusion that Virginia’s data-center industry had a substantial estimated economic footprint in 2021. It does not prove that:

  • Virginia received $17 billion in tax revenue;
  • $15.3 billion was added dollar-for-dollar to state GDP;
  • All 45,460 supported jobs were permanent;
  • The tax exemption created the entire economic impact; or
  • Every Virginia locality benefited after accounting for infrastructure and public-service costs.

It also would be misleading to combine the $6.8 billion in major data-center investments announced in 2021 with the $15.3 billion modeled output figure. Investment announcements and economic output are different measures.

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The Bottom Line

Bottom line: Virginia’s data centers supported a large estimated economic impact in 2021, but the best-supported figure is $15.3 billion in total modeled output. The $17 billion headline is a rounded or imprecise restatement, and the estimate should be read with its industry sponsorship, its inclusion of ripple effects, and the public cost of Virginia’s tax incentives in mind.

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