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Start with the annual amount your portfolio must provide—not your total spending—and multiply that gap by 25. The formula is: (desired annual retirement spending − dependable Social Security and other guaranteed income) × 25. A household spending $80,000 a year and expecting $30,000 of dependable Social Security would therefore use a $50,000 gap and a $1.25 million starting estimate. That figure is a planning baseline, not a guarantee.
What “25 times” means
The Rule of 25 is the reverse of a 4% initial withdrawal rate. You withdraw 4% of the portfolio in the first retirement year, then increase the dollar withdrawal for inflation in later years. Because 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25, every $1 of annual portfolio-funded income corresponds to $25 of starting assets.
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The U.S. Social Security Administration’s 2020 bulletin summarizes it this way: “The 4 percent rule suggests that $25 in assets are needed for every $1 of retirement income.” The bulletin connects the rule’s roughly 30-year historical framing to William Bengen’s 1994 work.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesApply the multiplier only to the spending Social Security and other genuinely dependable income will not cover. A pension or annuity belongs in the income subtraction only if its payments are expected to continue under the terms you are using; investment dividends, rent, or planned part-time work are not automatically guaranteed.
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Calculate the gap before multiplying
- Set a retirement spending target. Build it from your own planned housing, food, transportation, insurance, travel, gifts and other expenses.
- Estimate dependable income. Use your personal Social Security estimate at the claiming age you are considering, plus any pension or other lifetime income you can reasonably count on.
- Subtract income from spending. The result is the annual amount the portfolio must supply.
- Multiply the gap by 25. Treat the result as a first-pass target to stress-test, not as a promise that the money will last.
Illustrative calculations
| Annual spending target | Dependable Social Security and other guaranteed income | Portfolio-funded gap | Gap × 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $60,000 | $24,000 | $36,000 | $900,000 |
| $80,000 | $30,000 | $50,000 | $1,250,000 |
| $100,000 | $40,000 | $60,000 | $1,500,000 |
These are arithmetic illustrations. They do not predict investment returns, inflation, benefit changes or longevity.
Do not use a national replacement rate as your benefit estimate
Social Security does not replace one fixed percentage of every worker’s previous income. The Social Security Administration explains that the result changes with the definition of preretirement earnings and that different denominators can produce misleading conclusions.
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Under one commonly cited framing, benefits replace roughly 40% of preretirement earnings. In the Administration’s stylized-worker figures for people retiring at age 65 in 2006, replacement was 56% for low earners, 41% for medium earners and 35% for high earners. Those figures describe examples from that article, not a universal promise for today’s household.
Your dependable-income number can differ because of your earnings record, claiming age, spousal or survivor benefits, taxes and other income. Use your own benefit estimate and budget rather than subtracting 40% from spending by default.
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Why 25 is a starting point, not a safety guarantee
The classic rule assumes a 4% first-year withdrawal, inflation adjustments thereafter and approximately a 30-year retirement. Market valuations, interest rates, inflation, investment mix and the order of returns can produce a different outcome.
The Social Security Administration’s bulletin notes that lower interest rates can reduce sustainable spending and discusses a 2.5% alternative in the cited research. A 2.5% starting rate implies $40 of assets for each $1 of annual portfolio income—40 times the gap instead of 25 times it.
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Longer retirements also call for more caution. Fidelity’s historical analysis, using data through December 31, 2025 and published in 2026, shows the following withdrawal rates at a 90% historical success level:
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →| Retirement horizon | Historical starting withdrawal rate | Equivalent asset multiple | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 years | 5.0% | 20.0× | Historical illustration, not a guarantee |
| 30 years | 4.6% | About 21.7× | Historical illustration, not a guarantee |
| 35 years | 4.4% | About 22.7× | Historical illustration, not a guarantee |
| Conservative 2.5% example discussed by the Social Security Administration | 2.5% | 40.0× | Alternative assumption cited in the bulletin |
Fidelity says the appropriate rate also depends on retirement age, investment mix, inflation and longevity. Morningstar likewise continues to describe 4% as the familiar rule while reevaluating safe starting rates under newer assumptions. A plan for a 40-year retirement, unusually high inflation risk or little ability to cut spending should not rely on 25× without sensitivity testing.
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Separate essential spending from flexible spending
List expenses in two layers. Essential costs—such as housing, food and healthcare—are difficult to reduce after a market decline. Fidelity’s guidance is to cover those costs as much as possible with lifetime guaranteed-income sources. Portfolio withdrawals can then fund discretionary travel, gifts, upgrades and other spending you can postpone or trim.
Make the spending figure explicit: is it before or after tax? Include taxes associated with withdrawals, Medicare premiums, supplemental coverage and a reserve for long-term-care risk. If healthcare or taxes are omitted from the target, the calculated gap will be understated and so will the 25× result.
A practical planning sequence
- Choose the retirement date and horizon. Test at least 25, 30 and 35 years; retiring earlier or planning for exceptional longevity generally requires more assets.
- Build an annual spending worksheet. Mark each line as essential or discretionary and identify expenses that may rise, fall or disappear.
- Pull the household’s Social Security estimates. Record the claiming age, individual benefits and any spousal or survivor amount you are actually including.
- Document other guaranteed income. State the payer, start date, inflation adjustment and whether the payment is available for life.
- Compute the gap and baseline target. Subtract dependable income from the spending target, then multiply by 25.
- Run lower-withdrawal and longer-horizon cases. Compare 25× with a 40× case or another rate appropriate to your risk tolerance, age and flexibility.
- Set a review rule. Revisit spending, benefits, taxes, healthcare costs and the portfolio mix when markets, family circumstances or the retirement date change.
How this differs from a salary-based savings benchmark
A spending-gap calculation answers, “How much capital must fund the expenses my guaranteed income does not cover?” A salary milestone answers a different question about progress during the accumulation years.
Fidelity’s 2026 guideline targets savings sufficient to replace at least 45% of preretirement income after accounting for Social Security. Its broad milestones are 1× income by age 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60 and 10× by 67, under Fidelity’s stated framework.
| Method | What it measures | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|
| 25× the spending gap | Assets needed for a chosen retirement budget after dependable income | Depends on withdrawal assumptions, horizon, taxes, healthcare and market outcomes |
| 45% replacement guideline | Savings-funded share of preretirement income after Social Security | Income is not the same as a household’s actual retirement spending |
| Age-based multiples | Broad accumulation progress markers | Not interchangeable with an individualized spending-gap calculation |
Common calculation errors
- Multiplying total spending. Subtract dependable Social Security and other guaranteed income first.
- Using an average benefit. Claiming age and earnings history can materially change the household estimate.
- Ignoring a second person. Include both spouses’ benefits and the survivor-income outcome you are planning for.
- Mixing gross and net figures. Keep spending, benefits and withdrawals on a consistent tax basis.
- Assuming a 30-year horizon automatically fits. A younger retiree may need a 35-year or longer test.
- Treating 4% as fixed forever. A severe early-market decline may require a temporary spending reduction, delayed discretionary purchases or additional income.
- Leaving healthcare out of the budget. Medicare premiums, supplemental policies and long-term-care exposure can create large late-retirement expenses.
What the number can—and cannot—tell you
The 25× result gives you a transparent starting point: it ties the portfolio target to the part of your lifestyle that guaranteed income does not fund. It does not forecast a specific balance, insure against inflation or establish that a particular asset mix will support withdrawals for life. Use the baseline alongside horizon tests, essential-versus-flexible spending categories and a plan for reducing withdrawals when conditions require it.
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