Short answer: Tariffs created a credible risk that some laptops, smartphones, and game consoles would become more expensive, but the widely repeated figures—26% for smartphones, 40% for consoles, and nearly double for laptops—were scenario estimates, not guaranteed retail-price increases. As of August 18, 2026, the answer depends on each product’s tariff classification, country of origin, exclusions, supply chain, inventory, and how much cost the manufacturer passes to shoppers.
The November 5, 2024 election did not itself impose a tariff. It changed the likelihood of particular trade policies. Since then, tariff actions and suspensions have changed repeatedly, so consumers should not assume that every device from a particular brand—or every product assembled outside China—receives identical treatment.
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What the original warning actually said
The warning came from a November 4, 2024 report, published one day before the US presidential election. It examined the possible effect of campaign proposals associated with Donald Trump, including a proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a proposed 20% tariff on imports generally.
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The Biden administration already had China-related tariffs and technology trade restrictions in place. Vice President Kamala Harris also took a China-focused trade position, although the policy details and proposed rates differed. For electronics companies, the uncertainty itself mattered: changing sourcing, contracts, shipping plans, and product pricing can take months or years.
How a tariff can reach the price you pay
- Import: A US importer brings a finished device or component into the country.
- Classification: Customs determines the applicable duty using the product’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule classification, country of origin, and any exclusion or special tariff action.
- Payment: The US importer generally pays the duty to the government.
- Business response: The company may absorb the cost, reduce its margin, raise the wholesale price, change specifications, alter suppliers, move assembly, or delay shipments.
- Retail outcome: Retailers may pass along some or all of the increase—or offset it with discounts.
This is why the claim that “China pays the tariff” is misleading. The legal obligation is generally imposed on the US importer. The economic burden can be shared among importers, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. The tariff percentage also does not automatically equal the percentage increase in the final retail price.
The US Trade Representative’s tariff-search guidance emphasizes that treatment depends on the relevant HTS subheading and applicable trade action. “Consumer electronics” is not one universal legal tariff category.
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Where the 2024 price estimates came from
The Consumer Technology Association modeled a severe tariff scenario and estimated approximately:
- Smartphones: 26% higher prices.
- Video-game consoles: 40% higher prices.
- Laptops: potentially close to twice the existing price.
These estimates were industry-backed modeling, not a neutral forecast or a record of measured US retail prices. They depended on assumptions about tariff pass-through, sourcing, margins, demand, exchange rates, and the ability of companies to shift production.
An earlier CTA analysis of a proposed 15% consumer-technology tariff estimated that console prices could rise immediately by about 25% and cost US consumers roughly $840 million more. That figure was also a scenario estimate, not evidence that every console would actually become 25% more expensive.
The correct interpretation is: broad tariffs could have produced large price pressure, especially for products with China-linked supply chains. It is not: every laptop, phone, or console was destined to rise by the quoted percentage.
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Electronics supply chains are distributed across many countries. Final assembly may occur in China, India, Vietnam, Mexico, or elsewhere, while displays, batteries, memory, processors, camera modules, printed circuit boards, chargers, magnets, and other parts come from several additional sources.
A product assembled outside China may still contain Chinese-origin components. Conversely, a US brand is not necessarily the manufacturer or importer of every part in the device. Country of origin is a customs determination based on applicable rules, not simply the country printed in a marketing description.
Relocating production is also slow and expensive. Companies must move tooling, qualify suppliers, establish testing and quality-control systems, obtain certifications, train workers, renegotiate logistics, and build enough capacity to serve the US market. A manufacturer may therefore keep some production in place, redesign the supply chain gradually, or accept lower margins rather than immediately raising prices.
Laptops, smartphones, and consoles will not respond identically
Laptops
Laptops combine many imported components and often operate on thin margins, particularly at the budget end. A duty on a finished laptop could therefore produce a noticeable percentage increase in an inexpensive model. Premium laptops may give manufacturers more room to absorb costs, although their complex components and global supply chains can still create exposure.
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A tariff affecting a display, battery, processor, aluminum enclosure, or other input can raise costs even when the finished laptop is treated differently. That does not mean every model is subject to the same duty.
Smartphones
Phones vary substantially by model and production year. Final assembly may be outside China, but phones still rely on globally sourced screens, memory, processors, camera systems, batteries, radios, and circuit boards.
A tariff on a complete phone is legally distinct from a tariff on an individual component. The retail effect can also differ by price tier: a company may protect the advertised price of a flagship, raise the price of a midrange model, reduce promotions, or change storage and accessory bundles.
Game consoles
Consoles are produced at large scale and sold through a relatively small number of platform companies. That concentration can make tariff exposure commercially important, because a price increase affects not only the hardware but also games, accessories, subscriptions, and the size of the installed user base.
Console accessories—including controllers, docks, headsets, storage devices, and chargers—may have different tariff classifications and sourcing patterns. A console and its accessories should not be assumed to receive identical treatment.
What changed after the election?
The policy timeline matters more than the election headline:
- November 5, 2024: The US presidential election took place. No tariff was imposed merely because the election occurred.
- April 2025: Reciprocal-tariff actions introduced rapidly changing rates, exceptions, and category-specific treatment.
- May 14, 2025: A White House order modified China-related reciprocal-tariff treatment to an additional 10% rate during the specified suspension period, subject to exceptions. Read the May 2025 order for its scope.
- November 4, 2025: A US-China arrangement continued suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs until November 10, 2026. That suspension does not mean all China-origin electronics face only 10% or are otherwise tariff-free. The November 2025 order controls the specific arrangement.
- January 15, 2026: A proclamation imposed a 25% tariff on covered semiconductor products and semiconductor derivatives, while expressly excluding several uses, including non-data-center consumer applications. The January 2026 semiconductor proclamation should not be summarized as a blanket tariff on consumer electronics.
- August 18, 2026: The situation remained policy-sensitive. The applicable treatment still had to be checked by product classification, origin, exclusions, and the latest official action.
Before publishing or making a purchase based on a tariff claim, check the USTR presidential tariff-actions index and the relevant current HTSUS treatment. Orders, exclusions, and customs guidance can change.
Could prices rise without a tariff on the finished device?
Yes. A tariff on a component can increase the cost of a finished product even if the finished product itself is excluded. Other indirect pressures may include higher costs for batteries, displays, circuit boards, metals, packaging, shipping, compliance, and supply-chain reconfiguration.
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That is a mechanism, not a prediction that every device will rise. A company might offset the increase through an alternative supplier, a currency movement, a lower margin, a smaller discount, fewer included accessories, or a later product refresh.
Why a full pass-through may take time—or never happen
- Pre-tariff inventory: Retailers may be selling devices imported before a new duty took effect.
- Contracts and hedging: Existing supplier contracts or currency hedges can delay the effect.
- Competition: Brands may absorb costs to avoid losing market share.
- Promotions: Retailer discounts can temporarily conceal a higher underlying cost.
- Supply-chain changes: Assembly or sourcing may move to another country.
- Product changes: A company may reduce storage, accessories, or specifications instead of raising the headline price.
- Consumer behavior: Buyers may delay upgrades, choose cheaper models, or buy refurbished devices.
For that reason, a tariff rate, a company’s additional cost, a retail-price change, and measured inflation are four different things. Proving that tariffs caused a particular price increase would require before-and-after price data while accounting for promotions, product refreshes, exchange rates, component costs, and broader inflation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Should you buy now or wait?
Buy now if you have a real need and the current price is good. This is especially sensible if your device has failed, you need it for work or school, you have a fixed travel or project deadline, or the model is already discounted. A long-supported device can also be worth buying before an emergency replacement leaves you with fewer choices.
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Wait if your current device works and you have flexibility. Waiting can make sense before a major product refresh, when you are open to another brand or configuration, or when retailers are likely to clear older inventory. A new generation can create discounts even if tariff policy is uncertain.
Do not treat “buy before tariffs” as a guaranteed money-saving rule. A tariff may never be fully passed through, while a product-cycle discount, refurbished listing, or retailer promotion could save more than any anticipated increase.
A practical buying checklist
- Compare the exact model and configuration, including RAM, storage, carrier status, and included accessories.
- Record whether the item is new, open-box, or refurbished.
- Check the warranty, battery-health disclosure, return period, and seller reputation.
- Compare several retailers and the manufacturer’s store.
- Review price-match and price-adjustment terms.
- Track the price for several weeks when your purchase is not urgent.
- Include total ownership costs: financing interest, carrier plans, storage, controllers, games, subscriptions, and replacement accessories.
Price trackers such as CamelCamelCamel and coupon or tracking tools such as Honey can help monitor changes, but check their current terms and the specific retailer coverage. Cashback services such as Rakuten may reduce the net price, while a retailer’s own price-match policy may protect a purchase if the price falls. None of these tools guarantees protection against tariff-related increases.
Refurbished, open-box, and previous-generation options
If your concern is a possible increase in new-device prices, compare manufacturer-refurbished, open-box, and previous-generation products before panic-buying a flagship.
Useful places to check include Apple Certified Refurbished, Dell Refurbished, Best Buy Outlet, and Back Market. Terms differ, so verify warranty length, battery condition, cosmetic grading, return rights, software support, cellular-band compatibility, and whether the seller—not the platform—is responsible for fulfillment.
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Unknown imported marketplace devices can create separate risks: limited warranty support, incompatible cellular bands, regional software restrictions, delayed updates, uncertain safety certification, and difficult returns. A lower sticker price is not necessarily a lower total cost.
What to watch next
- New White House proclamations and executive orders.
- USTR tariff-action updates and exclusions.
- HTSUS revisions and Customs and Border Protection guidance.
- Manufacturer price lists, configurations, and accessory bundles.
- Retailer inventory, promotions, and price-adjustment policies.
- Measured consumer-price data rather than isolated anecdotes.
The CTA’s comments on China trade treatment provide useful industry context, but they should be read as an industry position rather than independent proof of a particular retail outcome.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the 2024 election immediately make laptops, phones, or consoles more expensive?
No. The election did not itself impose a tariff. The original warning concerned possible future policies, and any price effect depended on later orders, classifications, exclusions, inventory, and business decisions.
Are the 26%, 40%, and nearly 100% figures proven price increases?
No. They were Consumer Technology Association scenario estimates for smartphones, consoles, and laptops under specified tariff assumptions. They should not be treated as universal observed retail increases.
Does buying a device assembled outside China eliminate tariff risk?
No. Components may come from China or other countries, and customs origin is determined under applicable rules rather than solely by the final assembly location.
Is a 25% semiconductor tariff automatically applied to consumer electronics?
No. The January 2026 proclamation covered specified semiconductor products and derivatives and included exceptions, including non-data-center consumer applications. Product-level classification and current guidance are necessary.
The Bottom Line
The 2024 election created a credible risk of higher technology prices, but “prices could soar” described a worst-case policy scenario—not an inevitable, uniform outcome. As of August 18, 2026, buy based on need, the verified price, and the product’s support life. Do not assume that every device faces the same tariff or that waiting—or panic-buying—will automatically save money.
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