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A bear market is commonly defined as a fall of at least 20% from a recent high in a broad market index. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Investor.gov glossary adds that the decline generally persists for at least two months. There is no fixed timetable for the downturn to end: Charles Schwab’s historical S&P 500 samples put the average at roughly 14 to 15 months, while individual bear markets have lasted from a few months to several years.
What counts as a bear market?
The threshold most investors use is a decline of 20% or more from a recent peak. For example, if an index closes at 5,000 and later falls to 4,000, the decline is 20%. The calculation is measured from the relevant high to the subsequent low or current level, depending on the convention being used.
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Investor.gov, the SEC’s investor-education site, gives a more specific general definition: “A time when stock prices are declining and market sentiment is pessimistic. Generally, a bear market occurs when a broad market index falls by 20% or more over at least a two-month period.” The two-month qualification matters because a brief intraday breach of 20% is not necessarily treated the same way by every data provider.
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Bear-market labels are usually applied to an index rather than to one company’s shares. In U.S. coverage, the S&P 500 closing price is often used as the gauge for broad stock-market territory, according to Fidelity. A single stock can fall 20%, 50% or more without the overall market being in a bear market.
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The convention is not a universal law for every country, asset class or publisher. A provider may use a different broad index, a different closing-price series or a different rule for confirming that the threshold has been reached. When reading a headline, check which market and index it describes.
Bear market, correction and recession are different
These terms describe different things. A correction and a bear market are price declines of different sizes; a recession is a period of broad economic contraction. One condition does not automatically prove the others.
| Term | Typical meaning | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Correction | Fidelity describes a downward move of at least 10% from a recent high. | It does not meet the commonly used 20% bear-market threshold. |
| Bear market | A broad market index is generally down at least 20% from a recent high; Investor.gov also refers to a decline lasting at least two months. | It does not by itself identify the cause, the eventual low or the length of the recovery. |
| Recession | A downturn in overall economic activity, determined through economic indicators and formal analysis rather than a stock-price percentage. | It is not required for a bear market. Fidelity says about one-quarter of bear markets in its analysis did not coincide with recessions. |
Because markets often anticipate economic changes, stock prices can fall before recession indicators weaken and can begin recovering while the economy still feels poor. The market label and the economic label therefore should not be used interchangeably.
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How long do bear markets usually last?
There is no dependable countdown clock. Historical averages vary with the episodes selected, the index used and the point at which an analyst declares the episode over.
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Schwab’s historical averages
In an article dated August 6, 2025, Charles Schwab reported that its past 12 S&P 500 bear markets averaged about 14 months. In the same historical discussion, the shortest episodes lasted about three months, in 1987 and 1990, while the longest lasted three years, from 1946 to 1949.
Another Schwab report, citing Schwab Center for Financial Research figures since 1966, gives an average duration of approximately 15 months and an average decline of 38%. That is a different sample window from the “past 12” estimate, so the two numbers should not be combined into one supposedly exact average.
What “duration” can mean
Most duration statistics measure the interval from the market’s peak to its trough, or from the point at which the 20% threshold is reached until the decline is considered finished. They do not necessarily measure how long it takes for the index to regain its previous high.
Recovery can take substantially longer than the fall itself. A market that drops quickly and then stabilizes may technically complete its bear-market episode before returning to its old peak. Always check whether a chart is showing the decline period, the time to the trough, or the full recovery to the prior high.
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The historical range is wide
Fidelity’s educational material says historical bear markets have ranged from a few months to years. That range is why an average should be treated as context rather than a schedule. A 14- or 15-month average does not mean a current downturn is “due” to end at month 15.
How often do bear markets occur, and how deep are they?
Fidelity reports that U.S. stocks entered bear-market territory about every six years on average over the 150 years covered by its analysis, with data stated as of December 31, 2025. Frequency estimates depend on the starting date, index history and episode rules, so they describe a long-run pattern rather than a calendar appointment.
The same Fidelity analysis reports a median decline of 33% during previous bear markets. Median means that half of the observed declines were smaller and half were larger. It is not the minimum required to qualify as a bear market—the conventional threshold remains 20%—and it is not an estimate of how long the decline will last.
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Discussing the 1987 downturn, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro in its Global Asset Allocation Division, recalled: “I remember clearly that many people were bracing for a depression, which of course never happened.” Fidelity’s account notes that the S&P 500 fell 33% in that episode. The example shows why the size of a fall and the fears surrounding it cannot tell you in advance how the economic outcome will unfold.
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Why published duration estimates differ
Two reputable articles can report different “usual” durations without either being wrong. Compare these factors before drawing a conclusion:
- Market measured: A statistic for the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks does not automatically describe international shares, bonds, commodities, property markets or cryptocurrencies.
- Sample period: Schwab’s past-12-market figure covers a different set of episodes from its since-1966 calculation. Extending the start date can add unusually long or short events.
- Episode boundaries: One series may require a 20% decline to persist for a specified period; another may count the first trading day that closes below the threshold.
- Peak and trough dates: A monthly series, daily closing prices and intraday prices can identify different highs and lows.
- End point: “Ended” may mean prices stopped falling, the index rose above a threshold, or the former high was recovered. Those are not the same milestone.
For that reason, place the publisher, index, dates and definition beside any number you quote. A bare statement such as “bear markets last 15 months” hides the assumptions that make the figure meaningful.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What a bear-market label can—and cannot—tell you
The label tells you that a broad index has experienced a large decline and that investor sentiment is generally pessimistic. It does not tell you whether the low is already in, whether a recession will occur, or whether the next month will be better or worse.
Charles Schwab states that there is no way to predict the outcome of any market cycle. Historical averages are descriptive, not predictive. Even when two downturns have similar percentage losses, their causes, interest-rate conditions, corporate earnings, policy responses and recovery paths can differ.
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Likewise, a 20% decline is not a statement about your personal portfolio. Your result depends on the assets you own, their currencies and sectors, fees, taxes, withdrawals and the date on which you need the money.
How to evaluate your own situation during a bear market
General financial education cannot determine the right trade for an individual. Fidelity’s guidance instead emphasizes putting market performance in the context of your goals and time horizon, checking emergency savings, considering risk tolerance and revisiting your investment plan if the decline causes persistent concern.
- Identify the money’s purpose and date. Separate near-term spending and known withdrawals from goals that are many years away. A market statistic does not change a bill’s due date.
- Check emergency reserves. Confirm that your cash buffer is appropriate for your circumstances before relying on investments for an unexpected expense. The appropriate amount varies with income stability, household obligations and access to other resources.
- Review the allocation you actually own. Compare your current mix with the plan you intended to follow. Include stocks, bonds, cash and any concentrated positions rather than judging the whole portfolio by one index.
- Test your risk tolerance against reality. If a decline makes you unable to follow your plan, that is information to consider when reviewing the allocation—not proof that a particular market forecast is correct.
- Check taxes, fees and trading rules before acting. Selling or changing holdings can create tax consequences, transaction costs or a mismatch with an account’s restrictions. Obtain qualified advice when those issues are material.
- Write down the decision rule. A documented rebalancing or contribution policy can reduce impulsive reactions. It should be based on your plan and circumstances, not on a promise that the historical average will repeat.
None of these steps requires predicting the exact bottom. They are ways to connect market information with decisions you can control.
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- Assuming 20% means the decline is over. The threshold identifies a category; it does not identify a turning point.
- Treating the average as a deadline. Schwab’s 14- and approximately 15-month figures summarize different historical samples and cannot forecast a current episode.
- Confusing a bear market with a recession. A market can fall without a recession, and economic weakness can continue after prices begin recovering.
- Comparing unlike statistics. Do not compare an S&P 500 peak-to-trough series with a global index’s recovery-to-previous-high series as though they measure the same event.
- Using a broad index as a diagnosis of every holding. Individual companies and sectors can behave very differently from the index used in a headline.
- Making blanket buy, sell or hold claims. Without your goals, timeline, cash needs and risk capacity, a universal instruction is not responsible financial guidance.
Bottom line
A bear market is generally a 20% or greater decline in a broad market index, with Investor.gov adding a two-month persistence guideline. In Schwab’s cited S&P 500 histories, bear markets averaged about 14 months for its past 12 episodes and approximately 15 months in its since-1966 sample, but actual episodes ranged from roughly three months to three years. Use those figures to understand the range of history—not to predict when a particular downturn will end.
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