Luxury-market growth is driven by a combination of consumer wealth, perceived value, pricing power, product desirability, geography and changing shopping channels—not by higher prices alone. The broad luxury economy is currently being supported by experiences such as hospitality, travel and dining, while the narrower personal-luxury-goods market is stabilizing and recovering at a slower, more selective pace.
The most important analytical distinction is scope. Bain & Company and Altagamma estimate worldwide luxury spending at €1,443 billion in 2025, covering goods and experiences. Their base-case forecast for 2026 is €1,440–€1,470 billion, equivalent to 0%–2% growth at constant exchange rates. Personal luxury goods—a narrower category covering products such as jewelry, watches, fashion, leather goods, beauty and eyewear—reached €358 billion in 2025 and are forecast at €365–€373 billion in 2026, or 2%–4% growth. Those 2026 figures are scenarios, not final results.
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Start by defining what “growth” means
Statements about “the luxury market” can be misleading when they combine different populations, products and measures. A market can grow in reported euros because prices rose while the number of items sold fell. It can also appear resilient because luxury travel and dining expanded even as handbags or shoes weakened.
| Measure | What it captures | Why it changes the interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Total luxury spending | Goods plus experiences across the global luxury economy | Includes hospitality, travel, dining, cruises, private aviation and yachts as well as products |
| Personal luxury goods | Consumer products such as jewelry, watches, fashion, leather goods, beauty and eyewear | Excludes much of the experience economy, so its growth rate can differ from the overall market |
| Nominal value | Revenue at prevailing prices and exchange rates | Can rise through price increases without equivalent unit or customer growth |
| Constant-currency value | Growth after removing exchange-rate effects | Better for comparing operating momentum across periods, but still does not reveal units sold |
| Volume, customers and spend per customer | How many products or people participate and how much each spends | Separates genuine demand expansion from higher prices paid by a smaller customer base |
For any forecast or headline, identify the market scope, geography, category, channel, time period and currency basis before drawing a conclusion.
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The latest market picture: a resilient total, a cautious goods recovery
Bain & Company and Altagamma’s 2026 update describes an uneven reset rather than a return to the rapid expansion seen earlier in the cycle. Its base case puts total luxury spending at €1,440–€1,470 billion in 2026, compared with €1,443 billion in 2025. Personal luxury goods are expected to move from €358 billion to €365–€373 billion.
The difference matters. Experiences can keep the broad market stable when consumers redirect budgets away from products. A household may postpone a leather purchase while still paying for a special trip, a restaurant occasion or a premium hotel stay. The aggregate market therefore reflects substitution among forms of discretionary spending, not just a single trend in designer products.
Bain senior partner Bruno Lannes characterized the outlook this way: “The luxury market is stabilizing, but this is not a return to the old rhythm, it is the emergence of a new one.” That is an interpretation of the 2026 outlook, not a statistical claim that every region or category is recovering.
1. Consumer capacity, confidence and participation
Luxury growth ultimately requires people with both the resources and the willingness to spend. Bain’s 2025 work describes a contracting and splintering consumer base: established high spenders remain important, while aspirational buyers have become more cautious and selective. The distribution of wealth can therefore matter as much as total wealth.
Established customers support the high end
Affluent customers with significant discretionary income are less dependent on monthly confidence and credit conditions. Their purchases can support high-ticket jewelry, watches, couture, travel and private experiences even when middle-income consumers cut back. Brands often protect this group with private appointments, limited editions, repairs, personal service and early access.
Aspirational buyers determine breadth
Aspirational customers expand the addressable market, but they are more exposed to inflation, housing costs, employment uncertainty and interest rates. When entry prices rise faster than incomes, these customers may trade down, buy less often, choose resale or redirect spending to experiences. A luxury company can report higher revenue while losing reach if price increases remove too many participants.
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Perceived value is broader than low price
Selective consumers evaluate quality, craftsmanship, durability, exclusivity, design, service and practicality together. “Value” in luxury does not mean the cheapest option; it means that the emotional and functional benefits justify the premium. Products that fail that test are vulnerable even when a brand has strong recognition.
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2. Experiences are competing with, and supporting, goods
The 2026 Bain–Altagamma update says experience-oriented consumer sentiment is outgrowing tangible goods. Luxury hospitality, private jets, yachts, cruises, dining and gourmet food are identified as comparatively resilient areas, although performance varies within each category.
This shift changes the competitive set for a personal-goods brand. A designer purchase is not evaluated only against another designer purchase; it competes with a weekend away, a special meal, a wellness retreat or a premium event. Experiences can also reinforce goods by creating occasions in which consumers discover brands, visit flagship stores or associate products with a desired lifestyle.
Why experiences can look stronger in a cautious market
- They create memories and social meaning that consumers may prioritize over another physical item.
- They can be shared, making the perceived benefit extend beyond the individual buyer.
- Travel and hospitality spending can be released in bursts after periods of postponement.
- Premium service and scarcity can be built into the experience itself, preserving luxury’s exclusivity.
Experiences do not make goods irrelevant. They explain why the total luxury economy may remain resilient while product categories show pressure.
3. Geography, tourism and local economic conditions
Luxury growth is geographically uneven. The 2026 update identifies the Americas as a source of strength, while Europe and the Middle East weigh on the overall outlook and China recovers cautiously. Altagamma’s June 2026 summary likewise describes the Americas as driving personal-goods growth, with Europe and the Middle East declining and China in cautious recovery.
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The Americas
Stronger demand in the Americas can lift personal goods through local spending, tourism and a large base of affluent consumers. The regional result still depends on exchange rates, employment, equity markets and the mix between full-price, outlet and promotional sales.
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Europe and the Middle East
Weakness in these regions can reflect softer local confidence, tourism patterns, currency movements and geopolitical conditions. A regional decline does not mean every city or customer segment is shrinking, but it can reduce traffic in flagship stores and high-spend tourist locations.
China
China should not be described as an automatic present-tense engine of luxury growth. The current assessment is cautious recovery. Consumer confidence, property-market conditions, travel flows, currency movements and the balance between domestic and overseas purchases can all change the contribution from one period to the next.
Regional forecasts are time-stamped scenarios. Tourism, currencies and geopolitics can move the result materially before a forecast year ends.
4. Pricing power—and the limits of price-led growth
McKinsey & Company and The Business of Fashion reported that more than 80% of luxury-sector growth from 2019 to 2023 came from price increases. That statistic explains why revenue growth and demand growth must be separated. Raising the price of each item can increase sales value even if unit volume is flat or falling.
How price increases help
- They raise revenue per item and can protect gross margins from higher labor, materials and distribution costs.
- They reinforce scarcity and exclusivity when customers still perceive the product as desirable.
- They give a brand resources to invest in stores, service, craftsmanship and marketing.
Why the strategy reaches a ceiling
McKinsey and The Business of Fashion’s January 2025 analysis says successive increases began to weigh on aspirational demand. Customers may delay purchases, switch categories, use resale or decide that the premium no longer matches the product’s quality and distinctiveness. Bain’s 2025 study similarly describes a smaller, more selective consumer base.
Price-led growth is therefore not the same as growth in customers, units or long-term brand health. Sustainable expansion requires a product and experience that justify the price to the customer who is actually being served.
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5. Product desirability and category mix
Categories do not move together, so a company’s mix can determine whether it outperforms or trails the market. Bain’s 2025 study reported stronger performance in jewelry and eyewear, resilient fragrance demand, pressure on shoes and leather goods, and polarization in watches. Its 2026 update continues to describe category differences, with jewelry and some other categories holding up better than cosmetics, leather goods and footwear.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThese are dated snapshots, not permanent rankings. Category results depend on price architecture, innovation, gifting occasions, inventory, regional exposure and how easily a product communicates its value online.
Jewelry and watches
Jewelry can benefit from gifting, self-purchase, symbolism and a perception of lasting value. Watches show polarization: the strongest brands and products can remain highly sought after while less differentiated offerings face a tougher buyer.
Beauty and fragrance
Fragrance has been a dynamic beauty subcategory and can provide a lower entry price than major leather goods. That makes it useful for recruitment, gifting and repeat purchase, although beauty is not immune to trading down or changing routines.
Footwear and leather goods
Pressure in shoes and leather goods shows how exposed high-ticket, frequently purchased products can be when aspirational customers become cautious. Newness, craftsmanship and practical use can help, but price increases without a convincing product reason can hurt conversion.
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Bain and Altagamma report that roughly half of luxury shoppers consult the secondhand market before buying new, and describe resale as thriving. Resale affects luxury growth in several ways.
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- It gives consumers a lower-cost entry point and can make ownership feel financially reversible.
- Visible resale prices provide a reference for durability, desirability and potential value retention.
- Customers may discover a brand through a pre-owned item and later purchase new.
- Brands face greater scrutiny over authenticity, repairability, scarcity and product longevity.
Resale does not automatically add to primary-market revenue. It can substitute for a new purchase, delay one or support one. Its importance is that it influences the decision before a customer reaches a new-product checkout.
7. AI and discovery are reshaping the purchase journey
About half of luxury consumers use AI somewhere in their purchase journey, according to Bain and Altagamma. Consumers may use AI to discover brands, compare products, summarize reviews, identify alternatives or plan a purchase. This figure shows changing behavior; it does not prove that AI independently causes total market growth.
For brands, discovery is becoming less dependent on a single store visit or editorial campaign. Product data, imagery, provenance, sizing information, care instructions and service policies need to be clear enough for customers—and the systems that help them research—to interpret accurately. The challenge is to make information useful without flattening the creative identity and human service that distinguish luxury.
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8. Brand investment, distribution and scarcity
External market conditions set the opportunity, but execution determines which companies capture it. Growth is more likely when a brand balances reach with controlled distribution.
Product and creative investment
Distinctive design, recognizable codes, craftsmanship and credible innovation create reasons to buy beyond a logo. Limited releases can support scarcity, but artificial scarcity cannot compensate indefinitely for weak product appeal.
Direct relationships and service
Owned stores, clienteling, appointments, repairs and aftercare give a brand first-party knowledge and a way to demonstrate quality. They also make the premium tangible, especially when online shoppers are comparing new and secondhand options.
Distribution discipline
Over-distribution and frequent discounting can train customers to wait and weaken exclusivity. Tight inventory management protects full-price selling, but excessive scarcity can frustrate genuine customers and send them to resale.
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- Identify the scope. Check whether the figure covers total luxury spending or personal luxury goods.
- Check the measure. Separate nominal revenue from constant-currency value, units, customers and spend per customer.
- Read the date and scenario. Mark observed results separately from 2026 forecasts and note whether the figure is a base case.
- Locate the geography. A global total can conceal divergent results in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and China.
- Check the category and channel. Jewelry, fragrance, watches, footwear, leather goods, hospitality and resale can move in opposite directions.
- Ask what caused the increase. Determine whether growth came from prices, volume, new customers, tourism, mix or experiences.
- Test durability. Look for evidence of product desirability, repeat purchasing, service quality and healthy full-price demand rather than a one-period price boost.
What could change the outlook?
The 2026 ranges are not guarantees. Consumer confidence, inflation, employment, equity-market wealth, currency movements, tourism, geopolitical events and regional regulation can all alter luxury spending. A stronger-than-expected recovery in cautious markets could lift goods, while renewed pressure on aspirational incomes could widen the gap between high spenders and occasional buyers.
The most useful conclusion is therefore conditional: luxury grows when enough consumers have spending capacity, believe the product or experience is worth its premium, can discover and verify it through trusted channels, and find that the brand’s geography and category mix match where demand is strongest. Prices can amplify that growth, but they cannot replace desirability, value and a broad enough base of willing customers.
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