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National Grid now expects underlying earnings per share (EPS) growth for FY2026/27 to be slightly above its previously stated 13–15% range. The 5 October 2026 pre-close update also clarified the timing of profit: the UK regulated businesses should contribute broadly evenly between the first and second halves, while US regulated operating profit is expected to be weighted to the second half.
The update is a trading indication rather than a replacement for the formal range. National Grid’s next scheduled checkpoint is its half-year results on 5 November 2026, when reported figures and any revised outlook could change the picture.
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What changed in National Grid’s FY2027 outlook?
Management had previously guided to 13–15% growth in underlying EPS for FY2026/27. In the 5 October pre-close statement, it said growth is now expected to be slightly above that range. No precise new percentage was provided, so investors should not treat the update as a quantified forecast above 15%.
The comparison starts with underlying EPS of 78.0p in FY2025/26. For context, applying the earlier 13–15% range mathematically to that baseline produces approximately 88.1p to 89.7p; those figures are an illustration of the old range, not a newly issued company target. The “slightly above” wording signals improved delivery against that framework without specifying a final EPS number.
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Why is the US profit contribution back-loaded to the second half?
National Grid expects US regulated operating profit to be weighted toward H2 of FY2026/27. That phasing reflects the timing of regulated revenue and cost recovery across the company’s US businesses rather than a change to the full-year strategy.
New England’s comparison effect
New England is returning to a more typical seasonal pattern after FY2025/26 included a one-off effect from a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) return-on-equity judgement. Because that judgement affected the prior-year comparison, the current year’s US profit profile can look unusually concentrated in the second half even as operations move back toward normal seasonality.
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A back-loaded year therefore means that early-period results may not track in a straight line toward the full-year EPS outcome. The H2 weighting is important when interpreting any first-half variance: a softer first half would not, by itself, invalidate the annual outlook, provided the expected regulatory revenue and operating delivery arrive later in the year.
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Why are UK regulated profits expected to be steady through the year?
National Grid expects operating profit from both UK Electricity Transmission and UK Electricity Distribution to be broadly evenly split between H1 and H2. In practical terms, the UK businesses are not expected to show the same pronounced second-half concentration as the US operations.
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Management links the group’s growth framework to higher allowed revenue as the business steps up delivery from the RIIO-T2 regulatory period into RIIO-T3. Allowed revenue is the amount regulators permit a network business to recover for operating and investing in its system. The transition can raise the revenue base, but the effect is recognized through regulatory mechanisms and delivery schedules rather than appearing as a single, uniform increase in every quarter.
UK and US earnings timing compared
| Comparison point | UK regulated businesses | US regulated businesses |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026/27 profit timing | UK Electricity Transmission and UK Electricity Distribution operating profit expected to be broadly evenly split across the year. | Regulated operating profit expected to be weighted to H2. |
| Regulatory driver | Higher allowed revenue as delivery steps up from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3. | US regulatory revenue and recovery timing, with regional seasonality affecting when profit is recorded. |
| Seasonality and comparison | No equivalent one-off effect was identified in the update; the expected profile is broadly even. | New England is moving back toward a typical seasonal profile after a one-off FY2025/26 FERC return-on-equity judgement effect. |
| Role in group EPS path | Provides a steadier contribution through H1 and H2. | Provides more of the expected earnings delivery in H2, supporting the full-year outcome later in the fiscal year. |
How the update fits National Grid’s longer-term plan
The annual EPS signal sits within a larger five-year investment programme. National Grid has set out at least £70bn of cumulative capital investment over five years across energy networks in the UK and the US Northeast. Its framework targets an 8–10% underlying EPS compound annual growth rate from the FY2025/26 baseline.
The scale of investment is intended to modernise and expand networks, support energy security and accommodate a cleaner, more flexible power system. Capital spending can support future regulated asset growth, but it also requires execution, financing and regulatory approvals. The five-year CAGR is a longer-term framework; it should not be confused with the separate FY2026/27 guidance range or the October wording that growth could be slightly above it.
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| Measure | Reported figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EPS | 78.0p | Baseline for the FY2026/27 growth outlook and the five-year EPS framework. |
| Underlying operating profit | £5,680m | FY2025/26 group result. |
| Capital investment | £11,576m | FY2025/26 group investment. |
| FY2026/27 underlying EPS guidance | 13–15% growth | Formal range issued before the 5 October 2026 pre-close indication. |
| Five-year capital programme | At least £70bn | Cumulative planned investment over five years. |
What investors should watch on 5 November
The 5 November 2026 half-year results should provide the first formal numerical checkpoint after the pre-close update. Key items are:
- whether reported H1 performance is consistent with an H2-weighted US profit profile;
- any change to the 13–15% formal EPS range or a quantified FY2026/27 forecast;
- evidence that UK Electricity Transmission and Distribution remain broadly even through the year;
- management’s explanation of the New England comparison after the prior-year FERC judgement effect; and
- progress against the investment programme and the regulatory transition from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3.
Until those results are published, the most accurate reading is that National Grid sees FY2026/27 underlying EPS growth running a little ahead of its earlier 13–15% framework, with a balanced UK contribution and a later US contribution.
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