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A hypothetical $10,000 investment in State Street’s SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) from October 12, 2006, through October 12, 2026, grew to about $82,300 with dividends reinvested. Daniel Sparks’s calculation shows that staying invested except for the market’s 10 best trading days would have left about $35,700—roughly 57% less than the fully invested ending value. The comparison illustrates how a few powerful rebound sessions and the compounding that follows them can dominate long-term results. It is a historical, hypothetical calculation, not a forecast or a claim about every S&P 500 fund.
What happens if I miss the S&P 500’s 10 best days?
Missing a small number of the index’s strongest sessions can materially reduce an ending balance because the lost gains would otherwise compound for years. In the SPY example covering October 2006 to October 2026, $10,000 became approximately $82,300 when dividends were reinvested; removing the 10 best trading days reduced the result to about $35,700.
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| Scenario | Ending value | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Invested throughout | About $82,300 | SPY, dividends reinvested, October 12, 2006–October 12, 2026 |
| Missed the 10 best days | About $35,700 | Same hypothetical period and fund series, with those selected sessions removed |
The approximately $46,600 gap is not simply the sum of 10 daily returns. It also represents the returns those gains could have earned in every subsequent period. The exercise assumes perfect hindsight: an investor misses exactly the best days while remaining invested at all other times, something that cannot be identified reliably in advance.
How much do I lose by missing the best days?
There is no single universal dollar figure. Results change with the start and end dates, whether the calculation uses an ETF or a total-return index, how dividends are treated, and the number of days omitted.
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| Source and period | Investment convention | Fully invested result | After missing selected best days |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan Asset Management, data through February 28, 2025 | S&P 500 Total Return Index; annualized returns | 10.60% | 6.37% after missing 10 best days; 3.69% after 20; 1.53% after 30 |
| John Hancock Investment Management, 2003–2023 | Bloomberg hypothetical index illustration; ending dollars | $63,544 | $29,112 after 10 best days; $17,468 after 20; $11,467 after 30; $7,887 after 40 |
| Advisors Asset Management, March 11, 2010–March 16, 2020 | S&P 500 annualized-return illustration citing Ned Davis Research | 9.67% | 4.46% after missing 10 best days |
| Advisors Asset Management, 1979–2020 comparison | S&P 500 annualized-return illustration citing Ned Davis Research | 10.82% | 5.10% after missing 40 best days |
These figures answer the same behavioral question but are not interchangeable performance records. The SPY calculation uses an ETF price series with dividends reinvested; J.P. Morgan and similar illustrations use total-return index data; John Hancock’s example uses a Bloomberg-based hypothetical index. Their endpoints and sample lengths also differ.
When did the S&P 500’s best days occur?
The strongest sessions tend to cluster in periods of extreme uncertainty, when investors are also most tempted to sell. TIAA’s Q4 2026 chartbook ranks these 10 best S&P 500 Total Return days in its July 1, 2006–September 30, 2026 sample:
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| Date | One-day total return | Market backdrop |
|---|---|---|
| October 13, 2008 | 11.6% | Global financial crisis |
| October 28, 2008 | 10.8% | Global financial crisis |
| April 9, 2025 | 9.5% | Tariff and trade uncertainty |
| March 24, 2020 | 9.4% | COVID-19 pandemic |
| March 13, 2020 | 9.3% | COVID-19 pandemic |
| March 23, 2009 | 7.1% | Financial-crisis rebound |
| April 6, 2020 | 7.0% | COVID-19 pandemic |
| November 13, 2008 | 6.9% | Global financial crisis |
| November 24, 2008 | 6.5% | Global financial crisis |
| March 10, 2009 | 6.4% | Financial-crisis rebound |
TIAA reports that all 10 came during the 2008–2009 crisis, the pandemic shock or 2025 trade uncertainty. The SPY analysis similarly places six in October 2008 through March 2009, three in March and April 2020, and one on April 9, 2025. Seven of those 10 sessions occurred within two weeks of one of the period’s 10 worst days. Selling after a steep decline can therefore remove exposure to the rebound that follows.
Should I stay invested during a market crash?
For a diversified, long-term plan, staying invested usually preserves participation in recoveries, but it does not prevent losses or guarantee a positive return. J.P. Morgan Asset Management says remaining fully invested can help a core portfolio participate in recoveries and growth; John Hancock similarly warns that leaving the market risks missing its best days.
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Match the portfolio to the money’s deadline
- Money needed within the next few years generally should not depend entirely on stock-market recovery timing.
- Long-horizon retirement or other goals can tolerate more interim volatility if the allocation fits your risk capacity and ability to keep contributing.
- A written stock-and-bond target gives you a rule for rebalancing instead of making an all-or-nothing decision during a headline-driven sell-off.
Use a planned risk reduction rather than a panic sale
If a crash reveals that your allocation is too aggressive, reduce risk deliberately, document the new target and consider changing future contributions first. Selling everything after a decline turns a temporary market loss into a realized result and may leave you out when prices rebound.
Is time in the market better than timing the market?
The historical comparisons support the idea that continuous participation is more dependable than trying to predict which days to avoid. The “miss the best days” exercise is deliberately asymmetric: it grants perfect knowledge of the winning sessions while holding every other condition constant, whereas real timing decisions also incur uncertainty, trading costs, taxes and the risk of missing several recovery days.
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A broad S&P 500 index cannot be purchased directly. Investors use an ETF or mutual fund, and each vehicle has its own expense ratio, tracking difference, trading spread, dividend treatment and tax consequences. Those details can make an investor’s result differ from an index chart or the SPY illustration.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Should I sell my S&P 500 ETF when the market looks expensive?
An expensive-looking market is not, by itself, a timing signal. A better decision is whether your current allocation still matches your goal, time horizon and ability to withstand a large decline.
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A practical decision checklist
- Write down the goal, required date and amount you cannot afford to lose.
- Compare your actual stock, bond and cash percentages with your chosen target.
- Rebalance only when the allocation breaches a preset band or your circumstances change, rather than reacting to a single valuation headline.
- Keep near-term spending needs in appropriate cash or high-quality fixed-income holdings so you are not forced to sell stocks during a downturn.
- Review taxes, account type and fund tracking before making a trade; these can outweigh a small forecast about the next market move.
This framework accepts that stocks can fall sharply. Its purpose is to prevent an emotional exit from destroying the long-term compounding plan demonstrated by the best-day calculations.
What are the limits of the 10-best-days comparison?
- It is retrospective: the omitted days are selected after the period ends, so it does not demonstrate a tradable strategy.
- Different studies use different windows, indexes, ETFs, dividend assumptions and endpoints, so their dollar figures should not be combined.
- The S&P 500 is a U.S. large-cap index; an investor’s diversified portfolio may include other regions, company sizes and asset classes.
- Historical returns, including the 2006–2026 SPY calculation, do not predict future returns.
- Taxes, fund expenses, bid-ask spreads and tracking error are separate from the hypothetical comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are the “best days” selected?
For a stated period, the calculation ranks daily total returns from highest to lowest and removes the top ten sessions from an otherwise continuously invested series. Because the ranking is known only after the fact, it measures opportunity cost rather than a strategy an investor could execute prospectively.
Would regular monthly contributions change the result?
Yes. Contributions made at different dates give each deposit a different exposure to the strongest and weakest sessions, so the ending balance will not match a single $10,000 lump-sum illustration. The behavioral lesson about rebound exposure can still apply, but the dollar difference must be recalculated for the actual cash-flow schedule.
Do dividends matter in a best-days calculation?
They do. A total-return series assumes distributions are reinvested, while a price-only series does not; mixing the two can materially change the ending value and annualized return. Check the methodology before comparing a fund chart with an index illustration.
Can rebalancing help without trying to forecast crashes?
A target-allocation rule can direct some gains from assets that have risen into assets that have fallen, keeping risk near its intended level. It does not guarantee that a rebound will be captured, but it replaces an improvised crash decision with a preselected process.
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