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An early-retirement plan is stress-tested by running the same spending need through unfavorable sequences of investment returns and inflation, not by checking one average annual return. Model a fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawal rule alongside at least one flexible rule, inspect the first years of withdrawals separately, and then review depletion, spending changes and ending assets across the full horizon.
Long horizons make the starting withdrawal assumption more demanding. Morningstar’s 2025 research reports modeled starting rates of 3.9% for 30 years, 3.5% for 35 years and 3.3% for 40 years at a 90% success target under its base-case assumptions. Those are conditional planning benchmarks—not a personal safe rate, market forecast or guarantee.
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What a downturn-and-inflation stress test is supposed to answer
The central question is whether portfolio withdrawals remain fundable when bad returns and high inflation arrive at the least convenient time. A plan can have a reasonable long-run average return and still fail if losses occur just after retirement, when withdrawals are removing money from a smaller balance. Similarly, an average inflation rate can conceal a damaging burst of price increases in the first few years.
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A useful test answers four separate questions:
- Can the portfolio fund every scheduled withdrawal through the entire retirement horizon?
- What happens if several poor investment years occur while withdrawals are already under way?
- What happens if inflation is unusually high early, causing the planned nominal withdrawal to jump?
- How much spending variability, delayed retirement or additional income would be needed to keep the plan viable?
Keep portfolio-funded spending distinct from total household income. A pension, annuity, rental income or part-time earnings can reduce the amount the portfolio must provide, but the model should show that income explicitly rather than silently treating it as an investment return.
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Define the plan before you run scenarios
A stress test is only as useful as its inputs. Write down the assumptions so that every scenario changes a defined item rather than an arbitrary guess.
Retirement date and horizon
Record the month and year withdrawals begin and the number of years the portfolio must support them. Early retirement often means a 35- or 40-year horizon rather than the 30-year period used in many conventional illustrations. If the end date is uncertain, run more than one horizon instead of choosing a single optimistic lifespan.
Starting portfolio and withdrawals
List investable assets that will actually fund spending, the first-year withdrawal in currency, and the withdrawal date. State whether the withdrawal is a percentage of the opening balance or a scheduled amount. A fixed-real rule raises the scheduled withdrawal with inflation; a percentage-of-balance rule changes spending when the portfolio changes.
Investment mix and other income
Specify the allocation used to generate the return and volatility assumptions. Include the timing and amount of reliable nonportfolio income, and identify whether that income is inflation-linked. Do not subtract an income stream from spending without recording when it starts and whether it can change.
Expenses that can and cannot move
Separate essential costs from discretionary costs. Housing, medical care and basic food may be difficult to cut during a bear market, while travel or gifts may be more adjustable. This distinction determines whether a flexible spending rule is realistic for your household.
Choose a baseline, but do not mistake it for a forecast
Morningstar’s 2025 retirement-income study reports a 3.9% starting withdrawal rate for a 30-year horizon, 3.5% for 35 years and 3.3% for 40 years when targeting a 90% modeled success rate under its stated base case. The assumptions use forward-looking asset-class expectations dated September 30, 2025. They are reference points for constructing scenarios, not recommendations for a particular investor.
| Modeled horizon | Morningstar starting rate | Modeled success target |
|---|---|---|
| 30 years | 3.9% | 90% |
| 35 years | 3.5% | 90% |
| 40 years | 3.3% | 90% |
For illustration, 3.9% of a $1 million portfolio is a first-year withdrawal of $39,000 before considering taxes, fees or other income. The percentage is applied to the starting portfolio; it does not mean the portfolio will earn 3.9% each year or that withdrawals will remain affordable in every market path.
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Morningstar’s illustrative $1 million example also uses a 2.46% inflation assumption. That figure is an input to that report’s example, not a forecast for your country, spending basket or retirement date. Your stress test should vary inflation rather than treating 2.46% as fixed.
Run complementary return-sequence tests
Two approaches reveal different weaknesses. Use both when possible, because neither a single historical episode nor a distribution of random trials describes every possible future.
Historical-sequence analysis
Start the plan at multiple points in history and apply the actual order of returns and inflation from each start date. This shows how a withdrawal rule behaved when a particular sequence occurred, including periods with severe early losses or high inflation. A historical run is an example of what happened, not a complete catalog of what can happen next.
Monte Carlo simulation
Monte Carlo generates many hypothetical return paths from assumed expected returns and volatility. Morningstar describes its method this way: "After estimating the expected returns and volatility of various asset mixes, we used Monte Carlo simulations to vary the sequence of potential investment returns." Its 2025 analysis uses 1,000 simulated return patterns and evaluates whether scheduled withdrawals are funded throughout the modeled period.
Simulation results depend on the assumptions that generate the paths. Changing expected returns, volatility, correlations, allocation or inflation treatment changes the result. A percentage produced by one model therefore cannot be transferred unchanged to a different portfolio or household.
Model inflation as a sequence, too
Do not pair every return path with the same smooth inflation line. Kitces’ practitioner discussion of sequence-of-inflation risk describes using historical inflation sequences or adding inflation variance to Monte Carlo assumptions. The aim is to test both ordinary inflation and cases in which high inflation arrives while the portfolio is already weakened.
Build the downturn scenarios that matter most
Inspect the first five to ten years of each path before looking at the final balance. Early losses combined with withdrawals can permanently reduce the capital available for later recovery; this is sequence-of-returns risk.
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Early bear-market case
Place a substantial equity decline near the retirement date, followed by an uneven recovery. Keep withdrawals running while the portfolio is down. Record the lowest balance, years spent below the starting value and whether the spending rule forces a cut.
Slow-recovery case
Use several weak or flat years rather than one dramatic crash. This tests whether the plan depends on a quick rebound and whether a cash reserve or spending adjustment can bridge a prolonged slump.
Late-loss case
Apply poor returns near the end of the horizon. A late decline may not threaten every scheduled withdrawal, but it can materially reduce the legacy or reserve you expected to leave. Include it when an ending balance is an objective of the plan.
Correlated shock case
Test a period in which the assets that normally diversify one another fall or deliver weak returns together. The model should use the correlations embedded in its assumptions; do not assume diversification eliminates losses.
Stress inflation by level and timing
Inflation changes a fixed-real withdrawal in two ways: it raises the nominal amount needed for the same lifestyle, and it can coincide with weaker investment returns. Timing is crucial. A burst of inflation in years one through five increases withdrawals before the portfolio has had time to recover from an early loss.
Run at least these inflation patterns:
- Smooth baseline: the model’s central inflation assumption applied consistently.
- Early spike: unusually high inflation in the opening years, followed by a return toward normal conditions.
- Persistent elevation: inflation remains above the baseline for a long period, testing the purchasing power of a fixed-real rule.
- Deflation or low-inflation interruption: a period in which the scheduled increase is small or absent, showing how a rule behaves when prices do not rise evenly.
For every pattern, report the nominal withdrawal, its purchasing power, the portfolio balance and any spending changes. A plan that survives high inflation only by silently reducing real consumption has not funded the original lifestyle.
Compare a fixed-real rule with a flexible rule
A fixed-real rule raises withdrawals with inflation regardless of the portfolio’s current value. It offers predictable purchasing power but can force large portfolio sales after a market decline. A flexible rule allows spending to respond to portfolio conditions. It may support a higher initial withdrawal, but cash flow becomes less predictable and cuts may occur when they are least welcome.
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Do not compare the rules only by their first-year percentage. Compare:
- retirement duration and starting withdrawal;
- the return sequence, especially losses in the opening years;
- the level and timing of inflation;
- how often spending changes and the largest increase or decrease;
- total lifetime spending;
- taxes and investment costs included or omitted;
- the lowest portfolio value and the ending balance.
Design a flexible rule that you can actually follow
Write the trigger before a downturn occurs. For example, specify how often the portfolio is reviewed, which balance measure is used, and the maximum increase or decrease permitted in a year. Decide whether essential expenses are protected and whether discretionary spending absorbs the first adjustment.
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Then test the rule against the same return and inflation paths as the fixed-real case. A strategy that looks successful only because it imposes an unacceptably large cut is not a practical solution. Conversely, a modest, pre-agreed reduction may materially improve resilience without changing essential living costs.
Define “success” precisely
In Morningstar’s study, a 90% success rate means at least 900 of 1,000 simulated trials funded every scheduled withdrawal without producing a negative portfolio balance by the end of the modeled period. It does not mean a 90% chance that your individual retirement will be comfortable, nor does it say that the remaining 10% of paths were equally severe.
Ask the model to show more than one pass/fail percentage:
- the number of trials with no negative balance;
- the number requiring a spending adjustment;
- the worst early balance and the median ending balance;
- the range of cumulative spending;
- the share of paths that preserve a chosen reserve or legacy.
A plan can meet a numerical success definition while producing a spending pattern your household would reject. Treat the success rate as a conditional result of the assumptions and definition, not as a guarantee.
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Morningstar states that its base-case research excludes taxes and investment fees. Those costs reduce the amount available for spending and vary with account type, jurisdiction, withdrawals, asset location and the investments used. Apply an after-tax withdrawal need and realistic ongoing costs before relying on any projection.
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Model each account separately when tax treatment differs. A withdrawal from a taxable account, a tax-deferred account and a tax-free account can create different net cash flows even when the gross amount is identical. If you cannot model the details precisely, run a conservative cost-and-tax allowance and label it as an assumption rather than presenting the published rate as net of tax.
Include nonportfolio income in both timing and inflation terms. Income that begins later, stops at a spouse’s death or fails to keep pace with prices cannot be treated as a permanent offset to spending.
A practical step-by-step stress-test workflow
- Write the base plan. Enter the retirement start date, horizon, starting portfolio, allocation, first-year spending, inflation rule and all other income.
- Separate spending categories. Mark essential, adjustable and one-time expenses. State the minimum acceptable spending level.
- Choose the baseline rule. Run a fixed-real withdrawal and document the inflation assumption. Add a flexible rule with written triggers and limits.
- Run historical sequences. Start the plan at multiple historical dates and retain the actual order of returns and inflation for each path.
- Run Monte Carlo paths. Use expected returns and volatility appropriate to the stated allocation, and generate enough paths to inspect the distribution. Morningstar’s published illustration uses 1,000 simulated return patterns.
- Add early-loss scenarios. Examine a sharp fall, a slow recovery and a period in which normally diversifying assets weaken together.
- Add inflation scenarios. Vary the level and timing, including an early spike and a persistent elevation. Do not reuse one smooth inflation path for every return sequence.
- Record decision outputs. Capture the lowest balance, first-year and later withdrawals, largest spending change, years of funding, taxes and fees, and ending assets.
- Set a decision rule. Decide in advance what would make you delay retirement, save more, earn additional income, lower the initial withdrawal or adopt flexible spending.
- Revisit after material changes. Re-run the plan when the portfolio, spending, health, household income or tax circumstances change; a result is not permanent once its inputs change.
How to diagnose a weak result
The plan fails only when losses occur immediately
This is a sequence problem. Consider a lower initial withdrawal, a larger reserve for near-term spending, a later retirement date or a pre-agreed reduction in discretionary spending. Test the proposed change against the same early-loss paths rather than judging it from an average return.
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Separate essential and discretionary inflation exposure. Check whether every expense truly needs a full inflation adjustment, and test a rule that limits increases when the portfolio is below a defined level. Verify that the assumed inflation basket resembles your actual health, housing and energy costs.
The plan passes, but spending cuts are extreme
Review the flexible rule’s trigger and floor. A high modeled success rate is not useful if the required cuts would make retirement unacceptable. Lowering the initial withdrawal or adding reliable income may produce a more durable cash-flow pattern than relying on severe future reductions.
The result changes dramatically when fees or taxes are added
That difference is informative, not a modeling error. The published base case excludes those items, so your after-cost plan must be evaluated on its own assumptions. Check whether the spending input is gross or net and whether fees are deducted before or after withdrawals.
The software reports one percentage with no path details
Request the definition of success, number of trials, return and inflation assumptions, tax and fee treatment, withdrawal timing and ending-balance distribution. Without those details, the percentage cannot be compared meaningfully with the published 90% benchmark.
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The 3.9%, 3.5% and 3.3% figures are tied to a specified portfolio, forward-looking assumptions as of September 30, 2025, a 90% success definition and a base case that excludes taxes and fees. They do not establish a personal safe rate, and they should not be treated as a current market forecast beyond that data date.
Your required rate is the first-year portfolio-funded spending divided by the investable portfolio available at retirement. It changes when spending, other income, taxes, fees, asset allocation or the horizon changes. A household with substantial guaranteed income may need a lower portfolio withdrawal than a household with the same assets and no outside income; the reverse can also occur when spending is higher or less flexible.
Use the published figures as a starting sensitivity range, then judge the plan by its behavior under adverse sequences and by the spending changes your household can genuinely accept. A stress test is successful when it exposes the decisions you need to make before a downturn—not when it produces a reassuring percentage.
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