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Use the latest annual filing and interim report, reconcile every metric’s definition and period, and build a downside case before considering a price. The framework below is designed to help you decide whether a company deserves deeper, company-specific investment research—not to produce a buy recommendation.
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1. Define exactly what business you are evaluating
A corporate name or popular brand can conceal several businesses. Before reading a valuation multiple, identify the legal entity whose shares or private securities you would own, its subsidiaries, reportable segments and material operations outside gaming or esports.
Classify the operating model
| Model | Primary economic driver | Questions to answer |
|---|---|---|
| Developer or publisher | Full-game sales, downloadable content, subscriptions, licensing and repeat purchases | How dependent is revenue on a release slate, franchise or external platform? |
| Free-to-play operator | In-game purchases, advertising or subscriptions from a minority of players | Are payer conversion, retention and spending stable enough to support user-acquisition costs? |
| Competitive gaming platform | Contest entry fees or other activity, less prizes, incentives and contractual revenue shares | What portion of gross player spend becomes company revenue and cash? |
| Esports team | Sponsorship, media or league distributions, merchandise, ticketing, content and prize-related income | Are commercial receipts recurring, and do they cover player, staff, league and event costs? |
| League or tournament operator | Media rights, sponsorship, entry fees, ticketing and services | Who controls the game, schedule, rights and revenue-sharing terms? |
| Diversified parent | A mixture of the above, sometimes with non-gaming operations | Can segment results be separated, or would group figures mislead you about a particular game or team? |
Do not use group revenue as a proxy for an esports team’s revenue unless the filing reports that team as a separate segment. A historical SEC filing from an esports-related issuer presented consolidation and monetization as management beliefs; it does not establish that consolidation is inevitable or that its historical revenue-per-user comparison remains current.
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Read the reporting perimeter first
- Download the latest annual filing and most recent interim update for the entity that owns the business.
- List subsidiaries, acquisitions, reportable segments and discontinued operations. Note changes in ownership or consolidation during the period.
- Record each segment’s revenue, gross profit, operating income or loss, assets, capital spending and cash-flow information where disclosed.
- Mark non-gaming activities, such as advertising technology, fintech, media production or enterprise software, so they are not accidentally attributed to games or esports.
- Write down the fiscal year-end, currency, accounting standard and whether figures are consolidated, segment-level, reported or adjusted.
This perimeter becomes the foundation for every comparison. If two companies report different segments or include different acquisitions, their headline growth rates are not directly comparable.
2. Map revenue and judge its durability
Follow every revenue line to the activity that creates it. Distinguish recognized revenue from bookings, billings, gross merchandise volume and cash collections; those measures can move differently because of timing, refunds, platform arrangements and accounting rules.
Build a revenue-driver table
| Revenue source | What to verify | Durability considerations |
|---|---|---|
| Premium game sales | Units, price, platform split and release timing | Often launch-driven; sequels and catalog sales may smooth volatility. |
| Downloadable content and virtual items | Active users, payer conversion, spend per payer and platform deductions | Requires continuing content, healthy virtual economies and player retention. |
| Advertising | Impressions, fill rate, pricing and advertiser concentration | Sensitive to audience mix, privacy rules and economic cycles. |
| Subscriptions or services | Subscribers, churn, price, renewal and deferred-revenue treatment | More recurring than a launch, but cancellation and content costs matter. |
| Contest fees | Entry fees, prizes, incentives and developer or partner shares | Company revenue may be only a fraction of player cash spend. |
| Sponsorship and media rights | Contract term, guaranteed minimums, renewal history and counterparty | Can be recurring, but often depends on audience delivery, league access and performance. |
| Merchandise and ticketing | Units, gross margin, inventory and event frequency | Usually lower-margin or episodic; check working-capital needs. |
Check concentration before forecasting growth
- What percentage of revenue comes from the leading game, franchise, platform, territory, league or sponsor?
- Does a small percentage of paying users generate most spending?
- Are distribution, payment or publishing agreements cancellable or subject to changing fees?
- Did an acquisition, one-time licensing deal or accounting change create the apparent growth?
- How much revenue is contractually committed versus dependent on future launches or renewals?
Playtika’s 2026 Form 20-F reports that in-game purchases were 97.7% of 2025 revenue, compared with 98.4% in 2024. Those are Playtika-specific figures, not an industry norm. The filing also identifies dependence on a limited number of games and a small percentage of users as risks. A company with that mix may have attractive repeat spending, but a weak title or change in payer behavior can affect the whole group.
3. Test engagement and monetization with consistent definitions
Use the issuer’s own definitions for daily, monthly or quarterly active users, paying users, retention, average revenue per user, bookings and cohort recovery. Record whether a metric is an average, an end-of-period count, a unique-user total or a company-defined non-GAAP measure.
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Interpret activity and spending together
VNG’s 2025 annual report illustrates why one metric is not enough. It reported 57.3 million quarterly active users in 2025, down from 65.8 million in 2024, while its paying ratio rose from 3.7% to 4.6%. VNG defines QAU as the average of quarterly active users during the period. A shrinking audience with higher payer conversion can produce different revenue and margin outcomes than a growing audience with weaker monetization; inspect all three rather than assuming either trend is automatically positive.
VNG also reported VND 7,054 billion of 2025 revenue, up 8%, and VND 8,162 billion of bookings, up 13%. It defines bookings as a non-GAAP operating metric reflecting cash spent by users during the period. Bookings are not recognized revenue: timing, virtual goods delivery, platform arrangements and accounting rules can create a gap. Keep both figures, label them, and never substitute one for the other.
Understand competitive-platform deductions
Skillz describes revenue as its share of contest entry fees after deducting player prizes, incentives treated as a reduction of revenue and developer profit share. That structure means gross contest entry fees or gross merchandise volume can overstate the economic value retained by the platform. Examine activity, the take rate after every deduction, user-acquisition cost, cohort payback and the stability of repeat play.
Look for cohort evidence
- Compare new-player acquisition cost with cumulative gross profit, not just first-month revenue.
- Measure retention and spending by acquisition cohort and game, where disclosed.
- Separate organic activity from incentives, promotional credits and unusually large events.
- Check whether a few high-spending users conceal broad churn among ordinary players.
- Ask whether the company discloses enough data to reproduce its claims; unexplained metric changes deserve a lower confidence level.
4. Analyze unit economics for the specific business
Free-to-play and live-service games
Estimate the relationship among active users, payer conversion, spend per payer, platform fees, content costs and user-acquisition spending. A title can show rising bookings while destroying value if marketing costs rise faster than the gross profit from acquired players. Investigate content cadence, virtual-item pricing, refunds, regional mix and the age of the largest titles.
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Developers and premium publishers
Separate launch revenue from catalog revenue and identify development costs already capitalized. Compare a game’s initial sales with post-launch downloadable content, refunds, support costs and the marketing spend required to reach the audience. A release slate is a set of contingent projects, not guaranteed revenue.
Esports teams and leagues
Assess the team or league segment itself when available. Recurring sponsorship and media income must be compared with player and staff compensation, league fees, travel, event production, facilities, content production and central overhead. A sponsorship headline does not establish profitability. Also examine owner support, cash advances, related-party arrangements and any requirement to buy or maintain a league slot.
Dependence on a game publisher or league is unusually important. The rights holder can change rules, schedules, revenue sharing, team eligibility, broadcast arrangements or the underlying game, leaving a team with little control over its product.
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Construct a multi-year bridge from revenue to cash:
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- Compare revenue and gross profit by segment and by major product where disclosed.
- Identify operating expenses for development, marketing and user acquisition, platform fees, licensing, research, general administration and live operations.
- Reconcile operating income to operating cash flow, including working-capital movements, stock compensation and other non-cash items.
- Track capitalized development costs, purchases of equipment or facilities, acquisitions and impairment charges.
- List cash, restricted cash, debt, maturities, interest expense, covenants and expected financing needs.
Separate recurring economics from unusual items
Flag acquisitions, asset sales, one-time licensing deals, restructuring, impairments, litigation, financing gains or losses and unusually large prize results. Adjusted EBITDA can be useful for a clearly defined comparison, but do not treat it as cash if it excludes recurring stock compensation, capitalized development, platform payments or working-capital needs.
For esports organizations, include event and travel costs, player transfer fees, content studios and facilities even when management emphasizes sponsorship growth. For game companies, include the ongoing cost of keeping older titles live; a mature title can generate repeat purchases while still requiring servers, moderation, customer support and regular content.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.6. Evaluate the pipeline and product longevity
New releases
For each announced title, record development stage, committed spending, expected launch window, platform, genre, monetization model and evidence of player testing or early engagement if disclosed. A delayed or failed launch can affect revenue, capitalized costs, marketing commitments and debt capacity at the same time.
Existing live-service titles
Review retention, booking or revenue trends, content cadence, geographic mix and the age of the portfolio. Determine whether growth comes from a durable catalog or one temporary event. Older games can be valuable assets, but concentration in a small number of titles raises replacement risk.
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VNG reported that its long-lifecycle titles grew more than 40% in 2025 and together contributed 46% of revenue. Head of Publishing Mr La Xuan Thang said, “We invest in games built to last. In 2025, that paid out: bookings grew 13% across the segment, and the long-lifecycle titles in our portfolio grew over 40% on their own, together contributing 46% of revenue. The strongest evidence for our strategy is not the launch slate. It is the players still playing titles we shipped years ago.” This is an attributed company view and reported experience, not proof that the strategy will work elsewhere.
VNG’s Managing Director and Head of Global Game Development, Mr Bui Minh Phuong, described a 2025 strategy of fewer, larger bets, 3D shooting as a spearhead, artificial intelligence across development and international co-development. Treat those plans as execution risks until spending, milestones and commercial results support them.
7. Identify external dependencies and regulation
- Platforms and payment providers: model commissions, policy changes, payment failures and access restrictions.
- Publishers and intellectual property: verify license terms, renewal rights, minimum guarantees and termination clauses.
- Leagues and tournament organizers: determine who controls slots, rules, schedules, media rights and revenue sharing.
- Sponsors and broadcasters: inspect concentration, contract duration, make-goods and audience-delivery obligations.
- Talent: review dependence on key developers, players, streamers and executives, plus retention and compensation costs.
- Geography and regulation: assess local licensing, data rules, loot-box or minor-protection requirements, advertising restrictions and currency exposure.
VNG flags regulatory and platform-fee developments as considerations. Playtika identifies platform, user and game concentration risks. These issues can reduce monetization without any change in a game’s popularity.
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8. Compare companies on like-for-like axes
A high-quality comparison uses the same period, accounting basis, segment scope and metric definitions. Do not rank a publisher against an esports team using a single revenue multiple.
| Comparison axis | Evidence to collect |
|---|---|
| Business model | Publisher, free-to-play operator, platform, team, league, content business or mixed group |
| Revenue durability | Launch sales versus repeat spending, subscriptions, advertising, licensing, sponsorship or contest fees |
| Concentration | Leading game, franchise, platform, league, sponsor, territory and paying-user cohort |
| Player or audience economics | Activity, retention, payer conversion, spend, cohort recovery and acquisition efficiency |
| Profit and cash | Segment margin, operating cash flow, development and marketing burden, capital needs, debt and dilution |
| Execution and control | Pipeline evidence, title longevity, publisher and platform control, league access and talent retention |
| Valuation and downside | Comparable accounting, current capitalization, financing needs and sensitivity to adverse scenarios |
9. Build a valuation that survives a downside case
Choose valuation measures that fit the business and the quality of disclosure. Revenue multiples may be a starting point for a fast-growing company with little profit, but they ignore margin and cash needs. Earnings measures require normalized profitability. Cash-flow measures are preferable when operating cash is sustainable and development spending is not being deferred. User or bookings multiples are supplemental and must retain the issuer’s definitions.
Stress-test the operating model
- Player retention falls and payer conversion returns to an earlier level.
- A major launch is delayed by a year or fails to reach its target audience.
- User-acquisition cost rises while cohort spending stays flat.
- Platform fees, publisher royalties or league costs increase.
- A leading sponsor, broadcaster or game license is lost.
- Foreign-exchange movements reduce reported revenue or cash.
- Debt must be refinanced at a higher interest rate, or new equity causes dilution.
For a public company, use the current share count, diluted securities, net debt, restricted cash and market price at the date of analysis. For a private company, examine security rights, liquidation preferences, governance, employee-option dilution, transfer restrictions and exit assumptions. These inputs are specific to the security and cannot be inferred from industry averages.
10. A practical filing-based worksheet
- Scope: write the legal entity, fiscal year, subsidiaries, segments and non-gaming operations.
- Model: classify the company and list each revenue source with its accounting definition.
- Concentration: quantify dependence on titles, users, platforms, territories, sponsors and leagues.
- Engagement: record active users, payers, retention, bookings and cohort measures for at least two periods.
- Economics: calculate or locate acquisition cost, payer conversion, take rate, gross margin and cohort payback.
- Cash: reconcile operating income to operating cash flow and list development spending, debt and maturities.
- Pipeline: document launch timing, committed costs, milestones and evidence for each material project.
- Dependencies: read platform, publisher, league, sponsor, licensing and key-talent disclosures.
- Valuation: select comparable companies with matching business models and accounting periods.
- Downside: quantify the effect of weaker engagement, failed launches, higher costs, lost partners and refinancing.
- Decision: state which assumptions are supported by reported data, which depend on management forecasts and which remain unknown.
Common mistakes that weaken an investment case
- Using a parent company’s revenue to describe an esports team that is not separately reported.
- Treating bookings, gross entry fees or cash collections as recognized revenue.
- Calling a company-defined non-GAAP metric an industry standard.
- Assuming higher paying-user conversion offsets a shrinking audience without checking gross profit and cash.
- Using a dated issuer claim as a current market benchmark. A 2022 SEC-filed esports report cited approximately US$5 average annual revenue per user in 2018 and approximately US$2 in 2014; those were the issuer’s historical figures, not a current or universal benchmark.
- Comparing margins without reconciling platform fees, prizes, incentives, developer shares, capitalized development and stock compensation.
- Valuing an announced pipeline as if every title will launch on time and meet its target.
- Ignoring dilution, debt maturities, owner support or the cash required to maintain league access and live services.
The strongest conclusion is not “this company is a winner.” It is a documented answer to three narrower questions: what exactly is being bought, how reliably does player or audience activity become cash, and what could break that conversion before the valuation is justified?
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