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Evaluate a data center as one integrated infrastructure-and-real-estate asset. The investment is only as strong as its deliverable power, contracted tenant cash flow, lease risk allocation, and location-specific ability to connect customers and operate reliably. Start by proving when and how many megawatts can actually be energized, then underwrite the tenants and leases against that delivery schedule. Finally, compare locations on connectivity, permitting, hazards, taxes, labor, water, customer access, and total time to power.
What makes a data center investment different
A data center combines a building, electrical infrastructure, cooling systems, network connectivity, operating capability and long-term customer contracts. A site can look valuable on a price-per-megawatt basis yet fail to produce the expected return if the utility cannot energize the advertised capacity, a tenant delays its move-in, or the owner must fund unpriced upgrades.
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The correct unit of analysis is the cash flow that the facility can deliver on a defined schedule. That means matching four timelines: utility energization, construction and fit-out, tenant occupancy, and lease rent commencement. A megawatt that is available only after a multi-year interconnection upgrade is not equivalent to a megawatt that can be energized next quarter.
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- Tenants: credit, parent support, contracted rent, technical demand, concentration and replacement risk.
- Leases: term, escalators, options, security, pass-throughs, capital expenditure and default provisions.
- Location: fiber, latency, permitting, taxes, labor, hazards, water, generation and customer access.
Value each component together. A favorable lease cannot rescue an unenergized building, and abundant power does not compensate for a tenant that can walk away without meaningful security.
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Prove the power before valuing the property
Power is the first investment gate because it determines whether the facility can generate the rent in the underwriting model. Obtain documentary evidence from the utility, interconnection provider and project engineers rather than relying on a marketing brochure or an unqualified “available megawatts” statement.
Separate marketed, contracted and deliverable megawatts
Create three separate figures for every phase:
| Power label | What it means | Evidence to request |
|---|---|---|
| Marketed capacity | The amount shown in sales material or a broker presentation. | Source document, date, assumptions and whether the figure is gross or net of facility load. |
| Contracted capacity | Capacity covered by an executed utility, interconnection or supply agreement. | Signed agreement, milestones, conditions precedent, deposits and termination rights. |
| Physically deliverable capacity | Capacity the grid and facility can actually energize on the investment timeline. | Interconnection study, queue position, upgrade scope, construction schedule, commissioning plan and utility confirmation. |
Only the last category should support near-term rent in the base case. If a project advertises 100 MW but the utility study supports 40 MW before a substation expansion, underwrite the 40 MW to the earlier date and treat the remaining 60 MW as a separate, contingent phase.
Build an energization schedule
For each phase, record the application date, queue position, study status, required transmission or substation work, expected in-service date, testing period, backfeed arrangements and final energization date. Identify which milestones are controlled by the utility, the owner, a contractor or a third party. A schedule with no accountable party or contractual remedy is a forecast, not capacity.
Request the utility’s written confirmation of contracted and physically deliverable megawatts, interconnection status, upgrade scope, redundancy configuration and expected energization. Compare the utility schedule with the construction program and tenant delivery obligations. If the tenant’s rent starts before power is available, the lease may create abatement, termination or damages exposure.
Test reliability and expansion economics
Review the service configuration, feeder and substation redundancy, planned maintenance, historical outage frequency and restoration performance. Determine whether the facility has dual utility feeds, on-site generation or other backup arrangements, and whether those systems support the contracted service level. Identify curtailment rights, emergency operating limits and the cost of additional capacity.
Model expansion as a funded project, not as free optionality. Include utility deposits, transmission or substation upgrades, transformers, switchgear, generation, cooling and commissioning. Distinguish sunk costs from future capital that the owner must provide before a tenant pays rent.
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Use market evidence without treating it as a guarantee
CBRE reported that power availability and infrastructure-delivery timelines were the most decisive factors shaping site selection, leasing activity and pricing in the first half of 2025. Its Global Data Center Trends 2024 report also described worldwide power shortages as a growth constraint and identified sourcing power as a top priority across regions. Those findings support a power-first process; they do not prove that a particular site’s capacity will arrive on schedule.
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Underwrite tenants as operating counterparties
Tenant demand is valuable only when it is enforceable, financeable and technically compatible with the facility. Build a tenant schedule that identifies the legal entity signing the lease, its parent, guarantors, ownership, business model and actual responsibility for rent and power-related obligations.
Classify demand by commitment strength
| Demand category | Underwriting treatment |
|---|---|
| Executed lease with conditions satisfied | Include contracted rent and specified commencement assumptions, subject to credit and construction diligence. |
| Executed lease with outstanding conditions | Model each condition, deadline, termination right and probability of delay separately. |
| Letter of intent or nonbinding term sheet | Treat as pipeline; do not capitalize it as secured rent. |
| Speculative demand or broker interest | Use only in an upside case with an explicit lease-up period and costs. |
CBRE reported that 74.3% of under-construction capacity in the first half of 2025 was already preleased. That statistic illustrates the market value of committed demand, but a prelease still requires review of enforceability, conditions, tenant credit and delivery timing.
Measure credit, concentration and support
For every tenant, document financial statements, external ratings where available, liquidity, debt maturities, revenue dependence on a small number of customers and the strength of any parent guarantee. A lease signed by a thin project subsidiary is not equivalent to a lease backed by a well-capitalized parent.
Calculate the share of contracted rent, power and invested capital represented by the largest tenant. Stress-test a complete loss, a downsizing, a delayed move-in and a rent-free period. Estimate the time and capital required to re-lease the affected power block, including equipment removal, redesign, permitting and commissioning.
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Match the tenant’s committed megawatts, rack density, cooling method, redundancy requirement and deployment schedule to the facility design. Confirm who pays for specialized fit-out and what happens if the tenant’s actual load is below its reservation. A tenant with high switching costs may be more durable, but only if the lease and technical configuration make that durability economically real.
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Read the lease as a risk-allocation document
Abstract every lease into a common schedule so assets can be compared on the same basis. The headline rent is only one term; the allocation of power, repairs, upgrades and downtime can change the owner’s return materially.
| Lease item | Questions for diligence |
|---|---|
| Remaining term | How many firm years remain, and when do renewal options become exercisable? |
| Rent and escalators | What is the starting rent, escalation formula, cap, floor and effective date? |
| Pass-throughs | Which utilities, taxes, insurance and operating costs are reimbursed, and are there caps or exclusions? |
| Security | What deposits, letters of credit, guarantees and replenishment rights protect the owner? |
| Expansion and contraction | Can the tenant reserve, take or surrender capacity, and at what price and notice period? |
| Repairs and maintenance | Who maintains electrical, cooling, network and life-safety systems, and who pays for replacement? |
| Capital expenditure | Who funds upgrades, tenant improvements, efficiency projects and end-of-life replacement? |
| Restoration | What must be removed or restored at expiry, and is there security for that obligation? |
| Default remedies | What cure periods, termination rights, damages and step-in rights apply? |
| Assignment and change of control | Can the tenant transfer the lease or change ownership without the owner’s consent? |
Map each obligation to the power and fit-out plan. If the owner must fund a dedicated substation or cooling system but the tenant can terminate before recovery, the investment has stranded-capacity risk. Conversely, a clearly priced expansion option with a firm take-or-pay commitment can support additional capital with less speculative exposure.
Compare locations on time to power, not just prestige
Location still matters, but a famous market is not automatically the best investment. A power-ready site in a secondary or tertiary market can outperform a constrained primary market if it delivers capacity sooner and at an acceptable total cost.
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- Map diverse fiber routes, carrier availability, physically separate entrances and repair access.
- Measure latency to the target markets and major customer clusters; do not substitute geographic proximity for measured network performance.
- Assess access to generation, substations, fuel and maintenance contractors.
- Estimate the travel time and cost for customers, technicians and emergency responders.
Permitting, taxes and operating conditions
Review zoning, land-use approvals, building permits, environmental reviews, noise limits, water rights and utility regulation. Quantify property taxes, sales or use taxes, incentives, expiration dates and clawbacks rather than placing “tax favorable” in the model without a schedule.
Evaluate climate and natural hazards, including flood, wildfire, severe storm, seismic, heat and water-stress exposure. Determine how those risks affect insurance availability, deductibles, equipment design, outage probability and business-interruption coverage. Labor availability matters for construction, operations, electrical work and security; a low-cost site can become expensive if specialist labor must be imported.
Score the time-to-power trade-off
Use a location matrix that gives explicit weight to energization date and probability, then adds connectivity, permitting, taxes, hazards, labor, water and customer access. Document why a faster site wins or loses after total costs and risk adjustments. The conclusion should identify the first constraint that would prevent the asset from meeting its lease commitments.
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Value the asset without relying on a simplistic price per megawatt
There is no universal data-center value per megawatt or per kilowatt. A megawatt attached to a long lease with strong security, reliable power and low remaining capital needs is not comparable to a planned megawatt awaiting an interconnection upgrade. Use unit metrics for comparison, then value the resulting cash flow.
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- Build a monthly or quarterly schedule of physically deliverable megawatts by phase.
- Set rent commencement only when the lease and power-delivery conditions are satisfied.
- Subtract operating costs, utility costs that the owner bears, property taxes, insurance, management, reserves and recurring maintenance.
- Schedule tenant improvements, utility upgrades, equipment replacement, commissioning and other capital expenditures when they are paid.
- Calculate net operating income, levered and unlevered cash flow, debt service, sale proceeds and taxes under explicit assumptions.
- Revalue the asset under each downside case instead of applying a single haircut to the purchase price.
For a stabilized property, the basic capitalization relationship is value = stabilized net operating income ÷ capitalization rate. The capitalization rate must reflect lease duration, tenant credit, concentration, power certainty, location, sustainability credentials, liquidity and growth risk. It is not interchangeable with a quoted yield range.
Interpret reported yield ranges carefully
Knight Frank reported 2025 prime yields of 4.5%–5.5% in core markets, 6%–8% in secondary markets and 8%–12% in emerging markets. These are reported market ranges, not a valuation rule for an individual asset. The same report stated that lease structure, power availability and sustainability credentials affect yields. Match the selected rate to the asset’s actual risk and explain every adjustment.
Track useful unit metrics
| Metric | Purpose | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Price per deliverable MW | Compares acquisition cost against energized capacity. | State the energization date, redundancy, gross-versus-net convention and included capital. |
| Price per contracted MW | Shows the cost of capacity supported by enforceable leases. | Exclude pipeline and conditional commitments unless separately identified. |
| Rent per kW | Compares tenant economics across leases. | Specify whether power, cooling, taxes, pass-throughs and fit-out are included. |
| Yield on cost | Measures stabilized NOI against total invested capital. | Include future utility, fit-out, financing and contingency costs in the denominator. |
If a seller provides only a price per megawatt, ask whether it refers to utility capacity, critical-load capacity, shell capacity or leased capacity. Recalculate the metric using the capacity that actually produces rent.
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Data-center risks interact. A delayed substation can delay a tenant, trigger lease remedies and postpone rent while construction interest and taxes continue. Model linked cases rather than isolated percentage haircuts.
| Scenario | Model changes | Decision question |
|---|---|---|
| Delayed energization | Push power and rent dates, add carrying costs and apply any lease abatement or termination rights. | How much delay eliminates the return premium? |
| Interconnection overrun | Increase utility capital, deposits and financing; reduce available cash for tenant improvements. | Can the owner fund the upgrade without new equity? |
| Construction-cost overrun | Increase hard and soft costs, contingency draw and completion date. | Does the project still meet the required yield on cost? |
| Tenant default | Apply security proceeds, downtime, re-leasing costs and rent loss. | How long can the asset carry vacant power? |
| Tenant downsizing | Reduce contracted load and rent; add costs to reconfigure or release capacity. | Is the remaining concentration acceptable? |
| Higher power prices | Increase owner-paid energy costs or test tenant pass-through limits. | Who bears the price risk under the lease? |
| Outage or disaster | Apply downtime, repair, insurance deductibles, lost rent and customer claims. | Are redundancy and insurance proceeds sufficient? |
| Lease-expiry concentration | Roll a large share of rent at one date and include downtime and renewal costs. | Does value depend on one renewal decision? |
After each case, identify which assumption breaks the investment thesis first. That “first break” is more useful than an average risk score because it tells the investment committee where to negotiate protections, retain contingency or reject the deal.
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Follow a disciplined diligence workflow
- Define the investment boundary. List the land, shell, energized capacity, utility rights, generation, cooling, network assets, leases and development phases included in the price.
- Request primary evidence. Obtain utility letters, interconnection studies, queue records, permits, engineering reports, outage history, executed leases, guarantees, insurance and tax documents.
- Reconcile capacity and contracts. Match every tenant’s reserved megawatt and delivery date to a physically deliverable phase.
- Abstract the leases. Put term, rent, escalators, options, security, pass-throughs, capex and remedies into a single comparison schedule.
- Build the base case. Use only enforceable commitments and documented power dates; place pipeline and speculative demand in separate cases.
- Price the location. Quantify fiber, latency, permits, taxes, labor, hazards, water, generation and customer-access effects.
- Run linked downside cases. Revalue after delay, overrun, default, downsizing, energy-price, outage and expiry shocks.
- Set closing conditions. Require unresolved power, permit, tenant-credit or lease issues to be satisfied, escrowed or priced before closing.
Current market signals and how to use them
CBRE Research reported 5,242.5 MW of total under-construction capacity across primary North American markets in the first half of 2025, a 61.5% increase from the second half of 2023. It reported that 74.3% of that capacity was already preleased. These figures show the scale of construction and the importance of committed tenants, but they do not establish returns for an individual project.
CBRE also reported that 10 MW-plus pricing increased 13.8% in Northern Virginia, 19% in Silicon Valley and 15.4% in Chicago from year-end 2024 to the first half of 2025. Treat those as market observations for the stated period, not as a forecast or a substitute for asset-level underwriting.
In the same 2025 survey, 39% of investor respondents cited regulations and power availability as the top concern, while 49% named hyperscale build-to-suit as the leading opportunity over the next 12 to 24 months. Those responses can inform a market thesis, but an investment decision still depends on the site’s utility evidence, lease enforceability and total cost.
CBRE vice chair Rob Faktorow said: “Rental rates continued to climb across all requirement sizes as the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) workloads is transforming the data center industry, driving unprecedented demand for power-intensive infrastructure.” Rising demand can support rents, but it also increases the penalty for buying capacity that cannot be delivered on schedule.
Investment-committee checklist
- Is the claimed capacity supported by a utility document and a credible energization date?
- What portion of capacity is contracted, conditional, pipeline or speculative?
- Can the largest tenant’s default or downsizing be funded through security and reserves?
- Do lease commencement, abatement and termination provisions match construction and power milestones?
- Who pays for utility upgrades, tenant improvements, repairs, replacement and restoration?
- What percentage of rent expires or renews in the same period?
- Does the location have diverse fiber, acceptable latency, permits, labor and water under realistic conditions?
- Which downside case breaks value first, and what contractual protection addresses it?
- Are reported yields and price-per-megawatt metrics being applied to the correct capacity and risk class?
A strong investment memo should answer these questions with documents, dates, amounts and named counterparties. If an answer depends on an unverified future upgrade or an unsigned tenant conversation, show it as an assumption with a probability and a separate downside value—not as existing asset quality.
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