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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsA prediction-market contract is not necessarily settled when the event appears to end. The controlling record is the contract’s written rules, the version in force when you traded, the stated determination time, and the named official source. A payout that is still pending may be a normal delay; a payout that conflicts with those terms can be challenged.
First preserve the market page, rules, timestamps, source release, position ledger and platform messages. Then use the venue’s internal process. If the venue is subject to U.S. commodity regulation and the response does not resolve the issue, you can consider a complaint to the broker or exchange, the NFA, the CFTC, arbitration or civil litigation, depending on your account agreement and the facts.
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Decide whether you are seeing a delay or an incorrect settlement
“The event ended” and “the contract settled” are different conditions. A market can remain open for determination while the operator verifies the official result, waits for a later reporting window, or handles a correction to the source data. Kalshi describes settlement as occurring after the official outcome is confirmed and its markets team finalizes the result. Its help information says most markets settle within about three hours after the outcome is known, but a later determination time, delayed source data or a revision can extend that period.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →| What you see | Likely explanation | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| The event has ended, but the contract is marked pending | The rules may specify a later determination time or require an official release that has not arrived. | Read the determination window and named source. Wait through that window before treating the status as an error. |
| The result is posted, but your balance has not updated | The platform may be completing ledger processing or correcting a source update. | Save the displayed result and ledger, then ask support when the payout will be credited and how it was calculated. |
| The displayed outcome conflicts with the contract’s criterion | The source, time zone, threshold, data revision or rule interpretation may have been applied incorrectly. | Submit a rule-based challenge with the exact clause, source record and requested correction. |
| The rules or market details contradict one another | A metadata or drafting defect may affect the determination. | Use the venue’s designated bug or integrity channel as well as the normal support route when the rules require it. |
Do not assume a price of zero, a closed trading interface or an event’s real-world conclusion proves the contract has been determined. Your claim should identify the contract’s operative language and show why the determination or payment does not follow it.
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Preserve a complete evidence file before contacting support
Platforms can change a page after settlement, and source agencies can replace or correct a data release. Capture the record before opening a dispute. Keep the original files and an index showing when each item was saved.
- Market identity: the complete market URL, title, ticker or identifier, venue and the date and time you traded.
- Rules: the full rules text, “Important Information” text, version number or revision notice shown when you entered the position. Save later versions separately rather than overwriting the original.
- Timing: close time, determination time, time zone, any publication deadline and the time the platform actually marked the market determined.
- Your transactions: position size, fills, prices, fees, deposits or collateral, and the settlement ledger entry. Export the account statement if the venue offers one.
- Outcome display: screenshots or downloaded pages showing the platform’s result, payout amount, balance change and any error message. Include a timestamp and the device time zone.
- Official source: the source document, data release, bulletin or database entry named by the rules. Preserve the original URL or file, publication time, correction notices and the exact value used.
- Communications: every support ticket, chat transcript, email, case number and response. Do not rely on a phone conversation that has no written record.
- On-chain identifiers: for a blockchain-based venue, save the wallet address, transaction hash and block explorer record associated with the trade or payout.
Make a one-page chronology: trade time, close time, source publication, correction (if any), platform determination, payout posting and each contact. A chronology lets a reviewer test your claim against the contract instead of reconstructing events from scattered screenshots.
Read the contract like a settlement reviewer
Extract the clauses that answer five questions:
- What is being measured? Identify the precise event, geographic area, unit, threshold, ranking or count. Words such as “official,” “seasonally adjusted,” “final,” or “as reported” can change the result.
- Which source controls? The rules may name one agency, publication, exchange, website or data series and may rank backup sources. A different source can be persuasive evidence but not the contractual source.
- When is the result determined? Distinguish the trading close from the determination time. Some contracts wait for a scheduled release or a later observation period.
- How are corrections handled? Check whether the venue uses the first release, a revised release, a specified vintage or the value available at a stated cutoff.
- How is the payout calculated? Confirm the strike, binary or multiple-outcome formula, contract count, fees and any rounding rule. Recalculate the ledger from the formula rather than from the displayed balance alone.
The CFTC says customers are entitled to timely, transparent information about event-contract terms, payout, prices, and how settlement determinations will be made, including who decides. That right does not guarantee the outcome you expected; it gives you a basis for demanding the rule, source and calculation used.
Kalshi: use the built-in settlement and bug-report paths
1. Confirm the determination window
Open the market page and read Rules and Important Information. Pay particular attention to the official source and determination time. Kalshi notes that the displayed close time can differ from the time at which the market is determined. Compare those fields with your saved copy from the time of trade.
2. Wait through the stated window, then contact in-app chat
If the event has ended but the market remains pending, wait through the determination period in the rules. For a standard market with no update after about 12 hours, Kalshi’s help guidance says to use in-app chat and include the market title and source details so its markets team can review the delay. State the exact time the source published its result and attach the source record. Ask for a case number and an explanation of the expected determination time.
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3. Submit “Request to Settle” when the market should already be determined
When you believe the contract is ready for determination, open the market’s options menu and choose Request to Settle. Select the strike or strikes you believe should settle and provide a concise explanation tied to the named source and rule language. Kalshi says its markets team reviews submitted settlement requests. Save the confirmation and do not submit multiple contradictory requests; update the original case if new source information appears.
4. Report a rule or metadata defect through the private bug-bounty form
Use Kalshi’s private Market Bug Bounty form if the problem is a contradiction, broken rules link, misleading detail, internal inconsistency or wrong date that could affect settlement. The program states that email and support-chat reports are not accepted for that program, so file the report through the specified form even if you also have an ordinary support ticket. Explain the defect, identify the affected market, quote the conflicting text and show how different interpretations could change the outcome.
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Kalshi’s 2026 reward ranges are $25–$100 for minor bugs, $100–$250 for moderate bugs and $250–$1,000 or more for severe bugs. Those amounts are bug-report rewards, not compensation for a lost contract and not a promise that a market will be changed. Keep your settlement request active while the defect report is reviewed.
5. Ask for the contractual basis and payout calculation
In the support ticket, request three specific records: the rule clause relied on, the source record and timestamp used by the markets team, and the arithmetic that produced your payout. Ask whether the result is final, whether a source correction is pending and what internal appeal or review remains available. Keep the ticket number with your evidence file.
Polymarket: identify the venue before escalating
Polymarket US and Polymarket International are separate platforms
Polymarket states that its U.S. and International platforms have different applicable rules. Its transparency information describes the International platform as recording activity on a blockchain and provides a separate path to the U.S. rulebook. The venue shown in your account, the agreement you accepted and the market’s own rules determine which complaint channel and legal framework apply. Do not send a U.S.-platform dispute to an International process, or assume that an International market has the same regulator, arbitration terms or remedies as a U.S. contract.
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For Polymarket International integrity or resolution concerns
Email [email protected] with the market link, wallet address, transaction hash and a concise description of the conflict between the observed result and the stated source. Include the relevant rule text, source release, time zone and screenshots, but keep the first message factual and organized. Polymarket says reports are logged and reviewed confidentially and may lead to wallet restriction, legal action or referral to law enforcement. A report is therefore not an automatic appeal or a guarantee of a payout adjustment; ask what review is being opened and preserve the acknowledgment.
For Polymarket US
Follow the support and dispute instructions in the U.S. platform’s current rules and account agreement. Identify the governing entity, notice address, deadlines, arbitration clause and any required internal review. Request the settlement source, determination record and ledger calculation in writing. If the agreement directs you to a specific dispute forum, use that forum rather than assuming the International email process applies.
Write a persuasive internal dispute
A useful submission is short enough to review quickly and detailed enough to audit. Use this order:
- Header: market title and link, account or wallet identifier, position size, trade dates and support case number.
- Requested remedy: for example, determine the market under clause 4 using the named source’s final release, correct the payout ledger, or explain why the market remains pending.
- Rule: quote the exact operative sentence and identify its version or capture date.
- Facts: list source publication, determination and payout times in chronological order with time zones.
- Conflict: show the difference between the rule’s criterion and the result displayed. Separate a factual error from an argument about ambiguous wording.
- Attachments: number each screenshot, source release, ledger export and correspondence so the reviewer can locate it.
- Questions: ask who made the determination, which source vintage was used, whether a correction is pending and how the payout was calculated.
Use neutral language such as “The displayed result appears inconsistent with clause 3 because the named source reported 7.2 at 14:00 UTC, while the settlement screen uses 6.9 from an earlier release.” Avoid accusing the venue of fraud unless you have evidence of intentional deception. A delay, a source revision and a genuine interpretation dispute are different allegations.
Escalate to regulators or a formal forum when internal review fails
CFTC complaint channels
For a CFTC-regulated venue, the CFTC says you may complain to your broker, the designated contract market, the National Futures Association and the CFTC. The complaint portal is CFTC.gov/complaint. Submit a factual chronology and attach the contract, evidence, platform response and requested remedy. Explain the economic impact without inflating it, and identify any amount still held or unpaid.
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Before filing, verify that the venue and product fall within the CFTC’s jurisdiction. A platform’s branding or use of the phrase “prediction market” does not by itself establish jurisdiction. If the CFTC is not the right regulator, ask the venue which authority oversees the product and check the agreement for the designated forum.
Reparations, arbitration and civil litigation
Federal commodity-dispute rules describe three potential forums: civil-court litigation, reparations at the CFTC and arbitration conducted by a self-regulatory or other private organization. Eligibility and deadlines differ. Read the account agreement for:
- notice periods for a claim or objection;
- an arbitration clause, administrator and filing deadline;
- governing law and venue;
- required exhaustion of support or exchange procedures;
- limits on damages, fees or class proceedings; and
- the address and method for formal service.
The same rules state that arbitration consent must be voluntary and that customers should examine its relative merits. Do not sign a release, settlement or arbitration submission without understanding whether it waives court or regulatory remedies. For a material amount, consult a lawyer familiar with commodity contracts and the law that governs your account.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Comparison of dispute routes
| Issue | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket International |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governing record | Market rules, Important Information, determination time and named official source. | U.S. platform rules and account agreement; confirm the current rule version. | International market rules and the blockchain-linked transaction record. |
| First internal step | Wait through the determination window; then in-app chat for a standard market with no update after about 12 hours. | Use the support and review path specified in the U.S. rules. | Email [email protected] for integrity or resolution concerns. |
| Special escalation | Market options menu → Request to Settle; private Market Bug Bounty form for rule or metadata defects. | Follow the venue’s stated appeal or dispute procedure. | Provide market link, wallet address, transaction hash and observed conflict. |
| Evidence format | Rules capture, source release, timestamps, position and settlement ledger. | Contract version, account ledger, source record and support correspondence. | Market link, wallet, transaction hash, on-chain record, rules and source evidence. |
| Possible remedy | Delayed determination, corrected payout or account adjustment if the review finds an error. | Remedy stated in the applicable U.S. rules or agreement. | Integrity review, wallet or market action, and any remedy allowed by the International rules. |
| External escalation | Potentially broker, designated contract market, NFA, CFTC, arbitration or court, subject to jurisdiction and contract terms. | Check the agreement for regulator, arbitration and court provisions. | Check the International terms and applicable law; CFTC remedies may not apply. |
Common mistakes that weaken a settlement dispute
- Using the event’s apparent ending as proof: show the contractual determination time and source instead.
- Quoting a news report instead of the named source: attach the official release required by the rules.
- Ignoring time zones: convert every relevant timestamp to one zone and retain the original notation.
- Overwriting the rules: preserve the version displayed when you traded and label later edits.
- Sending only a screenshot of the balance: include fills, fees, contract count and the payout formula.
- Filing a bug report in the wrong channel: Kalshi’s private bug-bounty program says email and support-chat reports are not accepted for that program.
- Making unsupported fraud allegations: describe the observable discrepancy and let the reviewer classify it.
- Missing contractual deadlines: internal support can continue while a notice period expires, so calendar every deadline when you first open the case.
- Assuming a regulator can order any remedy: jurisdiction, product classification and the account agreement determine what a regulator or arbitrator can do.
What a successful resolution can look like
The outcome depends on the defect. A platform may complete a delayed determination once the official source arrives, correct a ledger entry, adjust a payout, amend an erroneous market record or explain why the original result complied with the rules. An integrity review may also restrict an account or refer conduct to law enforcement; that is an enforcement response, not necessarily compensation for your position.
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When a venue rejects your request, ask for a final written explanation identifying the rule version, source record, determination time and calculation. That explanation preserves the issue for a regulator, arbitration panel or court and helps you decide whether the expected recovery justifies a formal filing. Keep the original evidence and all correspondence unchanged.
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Questions to ask before you file
Does a revised official number automatically change the payout?
Not necessarily. The contract may specify the first release, a final release, a particular data vintage or a cutoff time. The answer comes from the correction clause and source hierarchy, not from which number seems most accurate after the fact.
Can I challenge an ambiguous rule even if the platform followed its usual practice?
Yes, you can identify the ambiguity and its effect on the outcome. A successful challenge still depends on the governing agreement, applicable interpretation rules and the venue’s review process. Quote the competing readings and explain why the displayed result is not compelled by the text.
Should I contact the CFTC before completing the venue’s process?
Check the agreement and the regulator’s instructions. You may be able to complain while an internal review is pending, but some formal remedies require notice to the venue or exhaustion of a stated procedure. Preserve every deadline and disclose the status of the internal case.
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What if the amount is small?
The same evidence steps apply. Compare the potential recovery with filing fees, arbitration costs, time and any legal consultation. A clear written request can resolve a small ledger error without formal proceedings, while a recurring rule defect may justify reporting even when your individual payout is limited.
Is there a published success rate for payout appeals?
No independent success-rate, average-resolution-time or payout-error statistic is established here. Treat any estimate from an online discussion as anecdotal and evaluate your case from the contract, source and ledger evidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long should I wait before treating a pending market as a problem?
Use the determination window in the market rules, not the event’s apparent end. For a standard Kalshi market with no update after about 12 hours, its help guidance directs users to in-app chat with the market title and source details.
What information should accompany a Polymarket International report?
Send the market link, wallet address, transaction hash and a concise description of the conflict, along with the relevant rule and source evidence.
What formal forums may exist after an internal denial?
Depending on jurisdiction and your agreement, options can include a CFTC complaint or reparations proceeding, arbitration or civil litigation. Check notice deadlines, arbitration terms and governing law first.
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