Wire-and-cable stocks are easiest to misread when a rising copper price inflates revenue and a large project backlog is treated as guaranteed sales. A sound analysis strips out metal-price movements, tests whether selling prices keep pace with input costs, separates recurring volume from project timing, and then checks whether debt and working-capital needs can be funded through the cycle.
The practical objective is not to find the company with the highest reported margin or biggest order book. It is to identify earnings that remain credible after normalizing copper, aluminum and lead prices; backlog that is funded and deliverable; and a balance sheet that can absorb plants, acquisitions and temporary cash drains.
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Why metal-price normalization comes first
Copper is a major cost in electrical wire and cable, but the metal can distort both revenue and profit comparisons. Many issuers publish sales at the metal price paid during the period and also at a fixed “standard” metal price. The first number reflects market movements; the second is intended to show the underlying commercial activity.
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Nexans reported €7,810 million of 2025 sales at current metal prices and €6,098 million at standard metal prices. Its 2025 standard copper assumption was €5,000 per tonne. Prysmian’s FY25 methodology used €5,500 per tonne for copper, €1,500 per tonne for aluminum and €2,000 per tonne for lead. Those reference prices are different, so a reported standard-metal margin from one company is not directly comparable with the other company’s figure unless you reconcile the assumptions and accounting definitions.
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| Issuer and period | Metal-price presentation | Reference values disclosed | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nexans, 2025 | Current-metal-price sales and standard-metal-price sales | Copper standard price: €5,000/t | Allows a bridge from market-price revenue to underlying activity, but its standard is not Prysmian’s. |
| Prysmian, FY25 methodology | Standard-metal prices held constant over multiple periods | Copper €5,500/t; aluminum €1,500/t; lead €2,000/t | Improves its own period-to-period comparison; the constants still differ from Nexans’. |
Build the metal-price bridge
For each company, collect the stated copper, aluminum and lead assumptions, then create four views:
- Reported sales: the issuer’s revenue at the metal prices prevailing during the period.
- Standard-metal sales: revenue restated at the company’s fixed assumptions.
- Metal-price and inventory effects: changes caused by the value of metal held in inventory or by timing between purchase and sale.
- Underlying commercial performance: volume, mix, customer pricing and operating costs after metal effects are removed.
Nexans reported a €24 million 2025 “core exposure effect” related to copper variation, down from €41 million in 2024. That disclosure is a reminder that even when customer contracts contain pass-through clauses, the company can carry temporary exposure between buying metal, holding it and invoicing the finished cable.
Do not treat a copper rally as organic growth
A higher copper price can increase the invoice value of a cable without increasing the meters shipped, plant utilization or customer demand. Compare organic growth both as reported and excluding metal and foreign-exchange effects. If sales rise while standard-metal sales and shipped volumes are flat, the apparent growth may be mostly a commodity-price effect.
How copper prices reach profit
The simplified economic chain is: metal cost enters the product, the company quotes a cable price, the contract or market determines how quickly that price changes, and the time difference becomes a margin exposure. The relationship is not automatic because wire prices can move daily for competitive reasons, while customer contracts may reset on a schedule.
Encore Wire’s annual-report risk disclosure states: “This competitive pricing market for wire does not always mirror changes in copper prices, making margins highly volatile.” Its filing also reported a COMEX copper average of $3.86 per pound in the first quarter of 2024 versus $4.08 per pound in the first quarter of 2023. Those figures describe the market environment, not a guaranteed margin outcome.
Three pass-through situations to distinguish
- Fast pass-through: quoted prices reset frequently and closely track the metal formula. Margin percentage can be more stable, although working capital still changes as the metal value changes.
- Lagged pass-through: the company buys expensive copper before customer prices reset. A rapid rally can compress gross margin temporarily; a sharp decline can create the opposite timing effect and potential inventory losses.
- Competitive or fixed-price selling: market prices do not mirror copper. A company may be unable to recover a cost increase, or it may retain a temporary benefit when copper falls.
Read contract language, quotation practices, hedging disclosures and the length of the order cycle together. A statement that metal is “passed through” does not establish that the pass-through is immediate, complete or free of working-capital requirements.
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Measure margin quality, not just the margin percentage
A high margin is useful only when you know what produced it and whether that source can repeat. Separate four contributors: metal-price timing, product and customer mix, volume and utilization, and one-time items.
Nexans generated €728 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and an 11.9% adjusted EBITDA margin on standard-metal sales. It also generated €344 million of free cash flow. These figures are a useful starting point, but the margin should be tested against the business mix and cash conversion rather than extrapolated mechanically.
Questions that make an EBITDA margin comparable
- Is the denominator current-metal sales or standard-metal sales?
- Does adjusted EBITDA exclude restructuring, disposals, acquisition costs or other one-offs?
- How much came from recurring low-voltage or building-wire demand versus large transmission projects?
- Did utilization improve, or did a favorable product and geography mix do most of the work?
- Did EBITDA convert into cash after inventory, customer advances, capital expenditure and taxes?
For Nexans, 2025 organic growth was 8.3%, or 11.6% excluding Other activities. PWR-Transmission quarterly growth reached 40.0% in the fourth quarter. Such project-driven growth can be economically attractive, but a single large delivery quarter should not be treated as a new run rate for every subsequent quarter.
Separate volume, mix, price and project timing
Build a bridge from the prior period to the current period instead of relying on sales growth alone. At minimum, label each change as metal price, foreign exchange, volume, price recovery, mix, acquisition or disposal, and timing.
| Metric | What it tells you | Common misreading |
|---|---|---|
| Shipped volume or conductor length | Physical demand and plant loading | Assuming revenue growth proves more units were sold |
| Organic growth excluding metal and FX | Underlying commercial momentum | Comparing it with reported growth that includes copper inflation |
| Segment mix | Whether higher-value transmission, subsea or specialty work is expanding | Assuming a mix benefit will persist after a project ends |
| Utilization and operating costs | Operating leverage and fixed-cost absorption | Attributing all margin expansion to pricing |
Also identify whether the period contains milestone billing, a factory acceptance event or a delayed shipment. Large cable projects often produce lumpy revenue and cash flow. Recurring construction-wire demand may be steadier but lower margin; grid and transmission work may offer longer visibility while requiring more specialized capacity and working capital.
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Backlog is valuable only when you can estimate conversion, funding and cash demands. Record the customer, geography, product, expected delivery years, escalation formula, milestones, cancellation or rescheduling rights, down-payments and expected working-capital profile for every material disclosure.
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Nexans disclosed €7.9 billion of PWR-Transmission backlog in the first quarter of 2026. Of that amount, €1.2 billion was tied to the Great Sea Interconnector, which was under rescheduling. Nexans said its PWR-Transmission backlog provided visibility toward 2028, but the Great Sea Interconnector was excluded from 2026 guidance. The headline backlog therefore cannot be treated as €7.9 billion of revenue arriving evenly or as fully included in near-term profit forecasts.
Backlog-quality checklist
- Contract status: signed and funded contracts are stronger than framework agreements, preferred-bidder awards or options.
- Customer funding: verify whether the utility, developer or public sponsor has secured financing and permits.
- Delivery schedule: map expected revenue by year rather than applying the total to the next twelve months.
- Escalation: determine whether copper and other cost changes are passed through, capped or absorbed.
- Milestones and advances: understand when the company receives deposits and when it must purchase materials and build inventory.
- Cancellation and rescheduling: identify termination payments, renegotiation rights and the effect of a delayed project on plant loading.
- Concentration: flag dependence on one customer, interconnector, geography or vessel schedule.
Convert backlog into a usable forecast
- Start with the disclosed backlog and remove projects explicitly excluded from current guidance.
- Assign each remaining project to its expected delivery year and a confidence category based on contract and funding evidence.
- Apply the disclosed escalation and metal-price mechanisms rather than assuming every euro of backlog has the same margin.
- Estimate the inventory, receivables and capital expenditure required before milestone cash arrives.
- Stress-test a delayed project, a customer rescheduling and a copper move separately; they do not create the same financial effect.
Analyze debt alongside acquisitions and cash flow
Net debt is a snapshot. A safer analysis combines the maturity ladder, interest burden, revolver availability, lease liabilities, acquisition financing, capital expenditure commitments and free-cash-flow conversion.
Nexans ended 2025 with €266 million of net debt and 0.36 times leverage. Its H1 2026 financial leverage ratio was 1.4 times after the Republic Wire transaction. The change illustrates why the date and transaction perimeter must accompany every leverage number: a year-end ratio before an acquisition is not comparable with a post-acquisition half-year ratio.
Prysmian’s financing schedule lists a €910 million Encore Wire term loan due in 2029 and revolving facilities due in 2030. A maturity several years away may be manageable, but it still belongs in the refinancing plan, especially if free cash flow is being used for plants, integration or shareholder returns.
Build a maturity and liquidity table
| Item | What to record | Why it changes the risk assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Term loans and bonds | Principal, currency, fixed or floating rate, maturity and security | Shows refinancing and interest-rate exposure |
| Revolving facilities | Total commitment, drawn amount, expiry and covenants | Separates theoretical liquidity from immediately available liquidity |
| Acquisition bridge debt | Amount, mandatory takeout and expected repayment source | Can make leverage jump before synergies arrive |
| Lease liabilities | Reported amount and payment schedule | Captures fixed claims not always emphasized in net debt |
| Capex commitments | Plant projects, timing and contractual obligations | Explains why accounting profit may not become distributable cash |
Use consistent leverage definitions
Calculate net debt divided by EBITDA using the same period, adjustment policy and acquisition perimeter for every company. Reconcile reported “financial leverage” with your own calculation; one issuer may include or exclude leases, customer advances, pension obligations or pro forma synergies. Then compare the result with free cash flow after maintenance and growth capital expenditure, not with EBITDA alone.
For a wire producer, working capital can rise with both copper prices and backlog growth. More valuable inventory and receivables consume cash even when the accounting margin is unchanged. Customer advances can offset that need, but only if the contract actually provides them and they are not refundable on cancellation.
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Compare wire-and-cable companies on explicit axes
A ranking is more reliable when every company is scored on the same questions. The following framework avoids letting one spectacular backlog or one unusually favorable copper quarter dominate the conclusion.
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|---|---|---|
| Standard-metal EBITDA margin | Margin, denominator and metal assumptions | Higher is meaningful only after reconciling standards and adjustments |
| Organic growth | Growth excluding metal, FX and consolidation | Tests demand rather than commodity inflation |
| Pass-through and hedging | Contract formulas, reset timing, hedges and core exposure | Indicates sensitivity to a copper shock |
| Backlog duration and quality | Signed contracts, funding, milestones, delivery years and cancellations | Distinguishes visibility from an aspirational order book |
| End-market exposure | Grid, transmission, subsea, construction, data centers and other segments | Shows cyclicality, concentration and growth drivers |
| Capital intensity | Maintenance and expansion capex, plant ramp timing | Shows how much cash growth consumes |
| Free-cash-flow conversion | Free cash flow relative to EBITDA across periods | Tests whether reported earnings fund debt reduction |
| Net leverage and maturities | Consistent leverage, interest cost, revolvers and due dates | Measures resilience when projects or margins disappoint |
Use Prysmian’s constant-metal approach for its own time series, but do not place its standard-metal margin beside Nexans’ without documenting the different reference prices. A comparison can still be useful after restating both to a common framework, or by focusing on changes within each issuer rather than pretending the published percentages are identical measures.
A repeatable stock-analysis workflow
Step 1: Gather the issuer’s definitions
Read the annual and quarterly filings for standard-metal prices, current-metal sales, adjusted EBITDA, organic growth, free cash flow, leverage, backlog and segment definitions. Record the reporting date and whether a recent acquisition changes the perimeter.
Step 2: Reconcile revenue and EBITDA
Construct the current-metal-to-standard-metal bridge. Identify inventory revaluation, hedging gains or losses, core exposure and any stated effect from copper, aluminum or lead. Do not mix a current-metal denominator with a standard-metal numerator.
Step 3: Test price recovery
Compare metal-cost changes with quoted wire and cable prices, contract reset dates and competitive conditions. Look for explicit language about lag, caps, floors and fixed-price work. Treat “pass-through” as a hypothesis to verify, not a conclusion.
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Step 4: Explain the margin
Break the change into volume, mix, price, utilization, metal timing and one-offs. Check whether the highest-margin segment expanded and whether the change was accompanied by cash generation.
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Step 5: Schedule the backlog
Allocate orders by customer, project, geography and expected delivery year. Remove rescheduled or guidance-excluded work from the near-term forecast, and model deposits, milestone payments, inventory and receivables.
Step 6: Stress the balance sheet
Lay out maturities, revolver capacity, acquisition debt, interest expense, leases and capex. Test a copper-price shock, a six-to-twelve-month project delay and a margin setback separately. Record the resulting cash need and covenant headroom if disclosed.
Step 7: Compare and decide what would change the thesis
Rank companies on normalized margins, organic growth, backlog quality, cash conversion, leverage and maturity concentration. Define update triggers: a quarterly or annual filing, a major acquisition, a project-rescheduling notice or a material copper-price move. These events can change the analysis faster than a static valuation multiple.
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- Comparing raw revenue: copper inflation can make the larger reported number look like stronger demand.
- Comparing published margins without metal standards: €5,000/t and €5,500/t copper assumptions produce different denominators and economics.
- Assuming pass-through eliminates risk: competitive pricing, reset lags and inventory timing can still move margins sharply.
- Counting all backlog as near-term sales: a rescheduled or guidance-excluded project is not equivalent to funded deliveries this year.
- Using year-end leverage after an acquisition: post-transaction debt and EBITDA must be measured on the same basis.
- Ignoring cash conversion: inventory, receivables and expansion capex can absorb cash while EBITDA rises.
- Extrapolating a project quarter: transmission milestones and factory acceptance events can make quarterly growth unusually lumpy.
What a defensible conclusion looks like
The strongest cable-stock case combines a transparent standard-metal bridge, durable price recovery, diversified and funded orders, and free cash flow that covers expansion without excessive refinancing risk. A company with a lower headline margin can be safer if its contracts reset quickly, backlog converts steadily and debt maturities are remote. Conversely, a high-margin company can be vulnerable if the result depends on one project, favorable copper timing or acquisition leverage.
For the figures currently disclosed, Nexans offers a concrete example of why all four lenses must be used together: 2025 adjusted EBITDA was €728 million with an 11.9% standard-sales margin, €344 million of free cash flow and €266 million of year-end net debt, while H1 2026 leverage rose to 1.4 times after Republic Wire. Its €7.9 billion PWR-Transmission backlog included €1.2 billion under rescheduling, so order visibility and balance-sheet capacity require ongoing monitoring rather than a one-time conclusion.
The repeatable answer to “which stock is best?” is therefore conditional: favor the issuer whose normalized earnings, backlog conversion and cash-funded balance sheet remain strongest under a realistic copper move and project delay. Refresh the model whenever filings, acquisitions, rescheduling announcements or metal prices materially change those inputs.
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