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A useful U.S. planning benchmark for a new retiree is a first-year withdrawal of 3.9% of the starting portfolio, followed by the same dollar amount increased with inflation. Morningstar’s 2025 model assumes a 30-year retirement and a 90% modeled chance of retaining money through the period, and excludes Social Security and other nonportfolio income. Flexible methods can start as high as 5.7%, but they require spending cuts when markets perform poorly. None of these figures is a guarantee or a personal recommendation.
The current withdrawal benchmarks—and what they actually measure
The percentages below are starting rates: multiply the rate by the portfolio value on the retirement date to determine the first year’s planned withdrawal. Under a fixed, inflation-adjusted approach, the dollar withdrawal then rises with inflation rather than being recalculated as a percentage of the remaining account each year.
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| Model or approach | Starting rate | Conditions and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Morningstar 2025 base case | 3.9% | Highest modeled rate for fixed, inflation-adjusted spending over 30 years with a 90% modeled success target; Social Security and other nonportfolio income excluded. |
| Morningstar 2025 flexible methods | Up to 5.7% | Two methods supported this starting rate, but withdrawals can fall substantially after portfolio declines. |
| 30-year TIPS ladder | 4.5% | Modeled inflation-adjusted rate using data as of September 30, 2025; the ladder is self-liquidating. |
| 25-year example, 40% equities/60% fixed income | 4.4% | Morningstar 2026 model estimate using data as of September 30, 2025; not a personalized recommendation. |
| 10-year example, 40% equities/60% fixed income | 9.7% | Morningstar 2026 model estimate using the same allocation and data date; a short-horizon illustration, not a general spending rule. |
In Morningstar’s terminology, “success” means completing the scheduled withdrawals without exhausting the modeled assets during the selected period. It does not mean that every retiree will receive the same income or finish with a particular inheritance. The 90% target also leaves a modeled chance of failure, and actual markets, inflation, taxes and health costs will not follow any model exactly.
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Why the “4% rule” is often misunderstood
The traditional rule is not “withdraw 4% of whatever the account is worth this year.” It starts with a percentage of the initial balance and then adjusts that original dollar amount for inflation. For example, a $1 million portfolio using the 3.9% benchmark would produce a first-year withdrawal of $39,000. If inflation were 3% in the next year, the planned dollar withdrawal would be $40,170, whether the portfolio had risen or fallen.
A constant-percentage plan works differently. At 4% of the current balance, a portfolio that falls from $1 million to $800,000 would produce only $32,000 the following year. That approach automatically shares market losses with the retiree, but income can change sharply. A fixed-real plan offers a steadier paycheck equivalent while exposing the portfolio to greater depletion risk after poor returns.
Both methods can be reasonable. The decision is mainly about how much income stability the household needs and whether it can postpone discretionary spending during a market decline.
Match the rate to the years your savings must last
A 30-year horizon is a useful planning frame for someone retiring around age 65, but it is not universal. A person retiring at 55 may need a longer horizon; someone already in their eighties may need a shorter one, while still reserving money for a surviving spouse or long-term care.
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Long horizons require more resilience
More years create more opportunities for inflation, market losses and unexpected expenses to compound. If the money must support two people for life, plan against the longer expected lifespan rather than the average life expectancy of the older spouse. A 30-year model should therefore be treated as a minimum planning lens for some early retirees, not as an expiration date.
Short-horizon figures are not permission to spend freely
Morningstar’s 2026 examples show how a shorter modeled period changes the arithmetic: 4.4% for 25 years and 9.7% for 10 years in a 40% equity/60% fixed-income portfolio. Those estimates assume that the spending period really is limited to the stated horizon and use model data dated September 30, 2025. They do not account for a retiree who survives beyond the horizon, faces a large late-life care bill, or wants to leave assets to heirs. Use them as illustrations of horizon sensitivity, not as a personal withdrawal recommendation.
Choose between stable income and a flexible paycheck
Fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawals
This method is easiest to budget. Set the first-year amount from the opening portfolio and increase it with an inflation measure or a chosen annual adjustment. It works best when essential expenses are covered by dependable income and the portfolio withdrawal is not the household’s only safety net. Its weakness is that the spending target does not automatically fall after a major loss.
Guardrails and other flexible methods
Flexible methods can support a higher starting amount because they reduce withdrawals after specified portfolio declines. A guardrail may set an upper and lower percentage, while a rules-based method may skip an inflation increase, take a “pay cut,” or reduce discretionary withdrawals after a bad year. Morningstar’s 2025 study found starting rates up to 5.7% for two such approaches.
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The trade-off is cash-flow uncertainty. A flexible plan is suitable only if the household can separate essential bills from expenses that can be delayed, reduced or canceled. A retiree who must pay the same rent, medical premiums and food costs every month cannot treat the entire budget as discretionary.
Use a two-bucket spending design
One practical structure is to fund a core budget from Social Security, a pension, an annuity or a conservative reserve, then use the investment portfolio for discretionary spending. In a strong market, travel or gifts can rise; after a decline, those items can be paused while the core budget continues. This does not eliminate investment risk, but it makes a flexible withdrawal rule workable.
Account for sequence-of-returns risk
Average returns over three decades do not describe the path a retiree experiences. A severe decline in the first few years, while withdrawals continue, can permanently reduce the number of shares left to recover. This is sequence-of-returns risk. High inflation early in retirement can have a similar effect by forcing larger nominal withdrawals before the portfolio has recovered.
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- Keep a written rule for what happens after a portfolio drop, before emotions are involved.
- Identify expenses that can be postponed for one year or more.
- Rebalance according to a chosen policy rather than selling whatever performed poorly in a panic.
- Reserve separate cash or short-term bonds for near-term essential spending if a market decline would otherwise force stock sales.
Subtract income that does not have to come from investments
Morningstar’s published withdrawal rates exclude Social Security, pensions and other nonportfolio income. To estimate the amount your savings must provide, start with the annual spending target, subtract dependable after-tax income, and apply a withdrawal rate to the remaining need—not automatically to every dollar of household cash flow.
Delaying Social Security can create a larger later-life income floor and may pair with a flexible portfolio strategy. The right claiming age depends on health, marital status, survivor needs, taxes, work history and available assets. A delay is not inherently better, and the portfolio may need to fund more of the early retirement years while benefits are postponed.
Pensions, guaranteed annuity payments and rental income have different inflation, survivor and default characteristics. Treat an income stream as dependable only after checking its adjustment formula, contract terms, tax treatment and whether it continues to a spouse.
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Do not confuse required minimum distributions with safe spending
The Internal Revenue Service defines required minimum distributions (RMDs) as the minimum amounts that must be withdrawn from covered retirement accounts each year. They are tax rules, not a calculation of how much a household can sustainably spend.
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When RMDs generally begin
Owners of traditional IRAs, SEP IRAs, SIMPLE IRAs and many workplace retirement accounts generally begin RMDs at age 73 under current rules. A participant in a workplace plan may be able to wait until retirement, unless the person is a 5% owner or another account-specific exception applies. Roth IRAs and designated Roth workplace accounts generally do not require owner-lifetime RMDs.
How the first year can create a tax bunching problem
The first RMD can generally be delayed until April 1 of the year after the year in which it is due. Delaying it can mean taking two distributions in that second calendar year: the delayed first amount plus the regular amount for that year. That choice can increase taxable income, affect Medicare-related premiums and push other income into higher brackets.
How the IRS calculates the minimum
RMD amounts generally use the account balance on the prior December 31 divided by an applicable life-expectancy factor. The correct table and treatment depend on the account and beneficiary circumstances. Withdrawals are generally taxable income except for amounts already taxed or qualifying tax-free distributions. Consult the current IRS guidance and the plan administrator before acting.
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TIPS ladders
A ladder of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can match scheduled inflation-adjusted cash flows for a defined period. Morningstar modeled a 4.5% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate for a 30-year TIPS ladder using data as of September 30, 2025. The ladder is self-liquidating: spending the scheduled principal and interest leaves those assets unavailable for heirs at the end of the ladder.
Annuities
An income annuity can convert part of a portfolio into lifetime payments, potentially increasing the income floor and reducing the amount that must be withdrawn from investments. In exchange, the annuitized capital is less liquid and may not remain available for beneficiaries, depending on the contract’s survivor and refund features. Compare inflation adjustments, fees, insurer strength, death benefits and liquidity before committing funds.
Legacy goals
A plan designed to maximize lifetime spending is different from one designed to preserve a large inheritance. If a bequest is important, reserve it explicitly rather than assuming an aggressive withdrawal rate will leave a desired balance. If lifetime security is the priority, using some assets for guaranteed income may be reasonable even though it reduces the investable portfolio.
A practical process for setting your own annual withdrawal
- Define the horizon. Use a conservative lifespan for the longest-lived household member and add a separate reserve for possible long-term-care costs.
- List annual spending in today’s dollars. Separate essential bills, recurring lifestyle costs and expenses that can be delayed.
- Identify reliable income. Include Social Security, pensions and contractually guaranteed payments, noting survivor and inflation provisions.
- Choose a baseline method. Use a fixed, inflation-adjusted amount if stability is paramount; consider guardrails only when discretionary spending can truly move down.
- Apply the starting rate to the opening portfolio. For a $1 million portfolio, 3.9% equals $39,000 before taxes. A 5.7% flexible starting rate equals $57,000, but the latter requires a rule for reducing future withdrawals.
- Model taxes separately. Decide which accounts fund withdrawals, estimate taxable income and coordinate withdrawals with RMDs and Roth conversions where appropriate.
- Stress-test bad beginnings. Examine a sharp first-year market decline, an inflation spike and a large medical or care expense. The plan should state what spending changes in each case.
- Review on a schedule. Revisit the plan at least annually and after major life events, rather than changing it in response to every market headline.
Common mistakes that make a withdrawal plan unsafe
- Calling 3.9% a guarantee: it is a model output with a 30-year horizon and a 90% success target.
- Applying the rate to the current balance every year: that creates a variable-percentage plan, not the inflation-adjusted method behind the benchmark.
- Using a 5.7% rate without spending cuts: the flexible methods supporting that figure depend on materially variable cash flows.
- Ignoring taxes: a gross withdrawal is not the same as spendable cash, especially from traditional retirement accounts.
- Treating an RMD as a budget: the legal minimum may be higher or lower than sustainable spending and can be required even when the money is not needed.
- Using a short-horizon estimate for a lifetime plan: the 10-year and 25-year examples assume the selected period and specified portfolio; living longer changes the problem.
- Forgetting late-life costs: long-term care, a surviving spouse’s expenses and support for family can arrive after the early retirement years.
Bottom line for a retiree’s decision
Use 3.9% of the starting portfolio as a disciplined reference point for a 30-year U.S. retirement when you want a steady, inflation-adjusted withdrawal and a 90% modeled success target. A higher initial amount can be justified only by a plan that deliberately lowers spending after poor returns. Then adjust the calculation for your horizon, guaranteed income, taxes, investment mix, inflation protection and legacy objectives. The rate is a planning input; the safety of the spending plan depends on the rules surrounding it.
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