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Holiday spending is rising in 2026, but a larger receipt does not automatically mean a fuller cart. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts $1.013 trillion in U.S. core retail sales for November and December, up 4.2% from $972 billion in 2025. NRF says about half of that increase should come from real consumer spending rather than higher prices. Other forecasts put the real increase between roughly 1.1% and 2.2%, depending on the basket and inflation measure. The practical answer is to separate gifts, food, travel and gasoline, then compare the same item at the same unit price instead of applying one inflation rate to the entire holiday budget.
What does the $1.013 trillion holiday forecast actually count?
NRF’s forecast covers core retail sales during November and December. It includes store and online purchases such as toys, clothing, groceries, drugstore goods, furniture and pet food, but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Visa uses essentially the same exclusions in its holiday-sales definition: non-seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales on all forms of payment, less auto, gas-station and restaurant sales.
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That boundary matters to a household budget. Gasoline is outside the retail-sales headline but inside the cost of driving to stores, visiting relatives or taking a holiday trip. Restaurant meals are outside it even though they compete with gifts for the same checking-account dollars. The trillion-dollar figure is therefore a measure of retail activity, not the amount American families have available for presents.
NRF’s 2025 holiday result was $972 billion, a 3.1% increase. The 2026 forecast is $41 billion higher. A simple division of the forecast by an estimated 343 million residents, calculated by MASEconomics, works out to about $2,950 per resident over two months. That is not an NRF household budget or an average shopper’s planned spend. It is only arithmetic spread across the population. On the same basis, the increase is roughly $120 per resident, or about $480 for a family of four; if “about half” is price-driven, around $240 of that family increase would buy no additional goods. Treat those figures as an illustration, not a spending recommendation.
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Is holiday spending actually up, or is it mostly inflation?
Dollar sales are clearly expected to rise, but the amount of additional merchandise is smaller. Oxford Economics forecasts a 4.2% increase in holiday retail sales in dollar terms and a 2.2% increase in volume after inflation. Visa forecasts 4.5% nominal holiday-sales growth, 3.4% inflation for holiday-related goods and 1.1% growth in real spending. NRF’s chief economist, Mark Mathews, describes the split as approximately half real spending and half price increases.
These estimates should not be averaged. They use different inflation assumptions and, in some cases, different baskets. Visa’s 1.1% is a real-spending estimate after its holiday-goods inflation call; Oxford’s 2.2% is its own volume forecast; NRF’s “about half” is a rounded judgment about the 4.2% dollar gain, not a published deflator.
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| Source | What it measures | 2026 result | Comparison or inflation adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRF | Core retail sales in November–December | $1.013 trillion, +4.2% in dollars | About half of growth expected to be real spending; 2025 was $972 billion |
| Visa | Nominal holiday sales with the same major exclusions | +4.5% in dollars | Holiday-related prices +3.4%; real spending +1.1% |
| Oxford Economics | Holiday retail sales | +4.2% in dollars | +2.2% in volume after inflation |
| Deloitte, reported by Reuters | Household holiday plans, including activities | $1,654, +4% from $1,595 | Retail +10% to $988; activities −4% to $666 |
Visa also reports that its sales estimate would be 4.6% higher if October were included. That is a different window from the November–December forecasts. Comparing the percentages without matching the months, basket and price index creates a false disagreement.
What is the real holiday inflation rate?
There is no single holiday inflation rate. The latest verified Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data are for the 12 months ending September 2026. The all-items CPI-U rose 3.7%, but the relevant rate for a particular purchase can be far lower or far higher. Visa’s Holiday CPI, designed around a typical holiday basket, was up 2.2% at that point, and Visa expects holiday-related goods prices to rise 3.4% during the season.
| Category | Change |
|---|---|
| All items CPI-U | +3.7% |
| All items less food and energy | +2.6% |
| Commodities less food and energy | +0.7% |
| Gasoline | +34.2% |
| Airline fares | +22.4% |
| Jewelry | +11.8% |
| Toys | +6.6% |
| Sporting goods | +4.7% |
| Apparel | +3.4% |
| Recreation commodities | +3.6% |
| Food at home | +1.8% |
| Televisions | −1.9% |
| Information-technology commodities | −2.9% |
| Telephone hardware, calculators and other consumer information items | −12.7% |
| Computers, peripherals and smart-home assistants | +9.7% |
The BLS release says gasoline rose 9.1% in September alone and accounted for more than half of that month’s all-items increase. Gasoline is not in NRF’s core-sales total, which explains how retail sales can look resilient while a family’s overall holiday budget feels squeezed. BLS had scheduled the October 2026 CPI release for November 10; the figures cited here stop at the September release rather than inventing an October rate.
Headline CPI, core goods inflation and Visa’s Holiday CPI can all be correct because they answer different questions. The BLS CPI-U represents price changes for urban consumers, more than 90% of the U.S. population, while Visa’s basket emphasizes food at home and recreational goods. Neither index is a prediction of the exact receipt in one city.
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Why do toys, jewelry and electronics feel so different?
Category prices diverge sharply. A 6.6% toy increase and an 11.8% jewelry increase are several times the 0.7% rise in commodities excluding food and energy. Conversely, televisions and telephone hardware fell in the BLS index, while computers, peripherals and smart-home assistants rose 9.7%. “Electronics got cheaper” is therefore too broad to be useful.
Toy prices also illustrate the lag between a policy shock and a shelf price. MASEconomics reports that the toy index had risen only about 0.2% in the year to September 2025 but was up 6.6% a year later. Its account of economic research describes full pass-through of some 2018 tariffs at the border, more limited initial retail pass-through, and Federal Reserve discussion in 2026 of a gradual climb into shelf prices. One cited full-pass-through calculation put roughly 3.7% on games, toys and hobbies. Company filings cited by MASEconomics reported tariff costs at major toy makers, but a tariff refund, if one occurs, goes to the importer of record—not directly to the shopper who paid the shelf price.
NRF also says higher diesel costs are raising shipping expenses and that artificial-intelligence investment is putting upward pressure on some electronics categories. That is consistent with the BLS computer index, but it does not describe every device.
Who is under the most pressure?
Higher food and gasoline costs take a larger share of moderate- and lower-income budgets, while rising financial wealth supports spending among higher-income households. Oxford Economics similarly expects equities and other wealth to support higher-income consumption while energy costs reduce real disposable income. Its outlook identifies recreational goods and services, furniture and clothing as categories that could benefit from that wealth effect.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11NRF’s October survey with Prosper Insights & Analytics found that 56% of holiday shoppers expect the economy to affect their plans. Among those shoppers, 43% plan to shop sales more often, 31% plan to compare prices online more often and 29% plan to use coupons more often. Sixty-four percent say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, while 43% plan to begin before November, often to spread out the budget.
Visa’s October survey found average planned gift spending of $777, up about 5.6% from $736 in 2025. About 84% of respondents said they had taken steps during the prior year to manage higher everyday costs, and roughly one-third of respondents earning under $100,000 planned to switch to lower-cost brands or stores. That change can reduce a household’s outlay while the original product’s price is still rising; it is a change in the basket, not proof that the first item became cheaper.
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Travel and live events topped Visa respondents’ wish lists, at 60% and 55% in the chart description. When asked where money would actually be prioritized, 27% chose physical gifts and 15% experiences. Visa’s anonymized card data for September airfare booked for trips from November 1 through January 15 showed expansion in both trips and dollars only among households earning more than $200,000: trips booked rose 29% and dollars 38%. Higher travel prices may be pushing some households back toward physical gifts.
Deloitte’s survey, reported by Reuters, is not directly comparable with Visa’s gift-only figure. It puts total household holiday spending at $1,654, with $988 for retail purchases and $666 for activities. Seventy-nine percent of people planning to give an experience also planned to pair it with a physical item. Different questions and categories explain why $777 and $1,654 should not be averaged.
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The price of a gift includes financing if the balance remains after the holidays. MASEconomics, citing the Federal Reserve’s G.19 release, reports an average 22.36% rate on commercial-bank credit-card accounts that were charged interest in the third quarter of 2026. Revolving credit reached $1,368.5 billion in September, about 4.3% above a year earlier. September’s 14.5% annualized monthly growth was much faster than the third quarter’s 4.1% pace, so one month should not be treated as a trend.
Buy-now-pay-later can also move the cost into January and beyond. The Federal Reserve household well-being data cited by MASEconomics found that 16% of adults used such a product in the prior year; usage was 18% among people earning under $25,000 and 12% among those earning at least $100,000. About a quarter of users had paid late, and 40% of the lowest-income users said it was the only way they could afford the purchase. A payment plan is a timing arrangement, not automatically a discount. Include interest, late fees and the risk of carrying a balance when deciding whether a sale is genuinely cheaper.
How do I compare this year’s gift prices with last year’s fairly?
Use the following sequence. It prevents a broad inflation statistic from hiding what happened to the items in your cart.
- Separate the basket. Make different lines for gifts, food and décor, travel and gasoline. Gas, cars and restaurants are outside the NRF and Visa holiday-sales definitions, even though they draw on the same household budget.
- Choose a matching index. Use CPI-U for the broad cost of living; commodities less food and energy for a broad store-goods comparison; Visa’s Holiday CPI and seasonal call for a holiday-goods basket; and the specific BLS item index for one aisle. Use NRF’s core-goods PCE expectation only when discussing NRF’s forecast, not as a universal receipt deflator.
- Convert dollars to volume correctly. The real change is approximately
(1 + dollar change) / (1 + price change) − 1. Subtracting the percentages is only a rough shortcut for small rates. - Match the exact item. Compare the same brand, size, count, features and condition. Then divide by ounces, counts, sheets or another relevant unit. A smaller package at the same sticker price is a price increase per unit.
- Use the price you will actually pay. Include unavoidable taxes and fees when matching a household receipt. A temporary sale is not last year’s price unless you can verify that last year’s item and terms. A store-brand substitution is a different basket.
- Keep financing separate from the sticker price. Add interest and fees for any balance that will revolve. A four-payment plan that extends after Christmas is not evidence that the item costs less.
BLS collects prices each month in 75 urban areas from approximately 6,000 housing units and 22,000 retail establishments. The national index is designed to represent a population, not to reproduce one family’s local sale price. Use it to identify whether a category’s move is unusual, then check the unit price on the shelf.
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What do the calculations look like with real holiday numbers?
Visa’s own figures provide a consistency check: (1.045 / 1.034) − 1 = 1.06%, which rounds to its stated 1.1% real-spending growth. Oxford’s 4.2% dollar forecast and 2.2% volume forecast imply a derived price factor of approximately (1.042 / 1.022) − 1 = 2.0%; Oxford did not publish that 2.0% as a separate inflation forecast.
For a household list, a $200 set of toys facing the BLS 6.6% increase would cost about $213.20 for the same goods. A $200 jewelry purchase facing an 11.8% increase would cost about $223.60; using the separate jewelry-and-watches rate of 10.8% would produce about $221.60. The index label matters.
Visa’s planned gift dollars rose from $736 to $777, or about 5.6%. If that particular gift mix faced Visa’s 3.4% holiday-goods inflation, the implied volume change would be approximately (1.056 / 1.034) − 1 = 2.1%. That is a calculation, not Visa’s published real-spending estimate, and it is not interchangeable with Visa’s 1.1% figure for all core retail sales.
How should I read conflicting holiday forecasts?
Compare forecasts along five axes instead of searching for one “correct” percentage:
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- Basket: Gift-only plans, household totals, core retail sales and a holiday-goods index are different populations.
- Time window: Most calls cover November and December; Visa also publishes an October-inclusive figure.
- Price measure: NRF uses a core-goods PCE expectation, Visa uses a Holiday CPI and holiday-goods forecast, Oxford publishes its own volume estimate, and BLS reports category CPI through September.
- Outcome versus plan: Surveys measure intentions; forecasts are estimates; the eventual Census and BLS releases can revise the picture.
The forecasts agree on the central point: not all of the 4%-plus dollar growth represents extra goods. NRF and Oxford place the volume gain near 2%, while Visa’s higher holiday-price assumption leaves about 1.1% real growth. Category data explain why one family’s list can feel much worse than the average: jewelry, toys, airline fares and gasoline are far above the broad averages, while some televisions and phone hardware are lower.
What should a household do before buying?
- Write a gift list with quantity, size and required features before looking at sale banners.
- Record last year’s actual unit price, not a retailer’s unverified “compare-at” price.
- Check a category-specific index when deciding whether a price jump is market-wide or item-specific.
- Set a separate allowance for gasoline, airfare, restaurants and activities because they are outside core holiday retail statistics.
- Compare total cost across stores, including shipping, delivery dates, taxes and return terms.
- Decide in advance whether a lower-cost brand is an acceptable substitution; do not call a smaller or different product the same item.
- Prefer a purchase that can be paid in full. If credit is necessary, calculate the interest at the card’s actual rate before treating a sale as a bargain.
- Keep survey figures in context: $777 is Visa’s average planned gift spending, while $1,654 is Deloitte’s broader household holiday estimate including activities.
NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires, around its estimate for the prior year, but staffing is not a guarantee of lower prices or faster delivery. Likewise, a one-day calendar difference can provide a small sales tailwind without changing what a household can afford.
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What is the bottom line on 2026 holiday inflation?
The 2026 holiday bill is likely to be larger, and the average cart is likely to be only modestly fuller. Use a holiday-specific or category-specific price measure, compare identical goods by unit price, and keep gasoline, travel, restaurants and financing outside the retail-sales headline. That method tells you whether your increase is buying more, paying more, or quietly doing both.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the CPI include sales tax when comparing holiday prices?
BLS defines CPI as the change in prices paid by consumers and includes taxes directly associated with purchasing and using items. For a personal comparison, include the taxes and mandatory fees you actually pay so this year’s and last year’s totals use the same basis.
Why can my grocery bill rise when food-at-home inflation is only 1.8%?
The 1.8% figure is an average for food purchased at home across the CPI sample. Your basket may contain products with faster increases, different package sizes, fewer promotions or a different mix than the national basket, so your personal rate can be higher or lower.
Is waiting for Thanksgiving weekend guaranteed to save money?
No. NRF’s survey says 64% of shoppers expect to wait, but that is an intention, not a price guarantee. Compare the verified unit price and the item’s availability; a discount that requires buying extra quantities or paying expedited shipping may not reduce your total cost.
How can I tell whether a smaller package is a hidden price increase?
Divide the shelf price by a consistent unit such as ounces, count or sheets, then compare that unit price with last year’s package. If the sticker is unchanged but the quantity falls, the effective unit price has increased.
What happens if October CPI changes the holiday outlook?
A new CPI reading could change the measured year-over-year rates and some forecasts, especially for fuel and travel. Recalculate with the updated category index while keeping the basket, months and item definitions unchanged; do not replace a gift-specific comparison with headline CPI automatically.
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