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GE Vernova has the greater overall exposure to the AI power build-out. It supplies utility-scale gas turbines and the grid, electrification, software, nuclear, wind and service systems needed to produce and move electricity. Caterpillar is a credible but narrower beneficiary through reciprocating engines, turbines and generator sets used for data-center primary and backup power. Neither company reports a clean “AI revenue” line, so the comparison is about product exposure, backlog, installed equipment and disclosure quality rather than a precise percentage of sales.
Which company has more exposure to the AI power build-out?
GE Vernova is the stronger choice when “AI power build-out” means the entire electricity system required by new data centers: generation, transmission, distribution, electrification equipment and long-term services. Caterpillar is more focused on the equipment installed at or near a site, especially engines, turbines and generator sets for primary, standby and distributed power.
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That distinction matters because data-center demand can create several orders for one project. A utility may need large turbines and grid hardware, while the data-center campus may also buy on-site generation and backup sets. GE Vernova can participate in the utility and grid layers as well as generation; Caterpillar generally participates through the equipment layer.
How does GE Vernova benefit from data-center growth?
GE Vernova’s exposure runs from gas-fired generation to the equipment that connects and stabilizes electricity networks. Its 2025 CEO letter identified data-center deployment as a force increasing electricity demand and said gas power complements the operating profile of data centers, which need large amounts of dependable power delivered quickly.
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Gas turbines provide dispatchable utility-scale power
The company says data-center construction will be a significant driver of gas-turbine demand. Gas turbines can provide dispatchable generation when renewable output varies and can be added faster than some large central-station alternatives. They are not exclusively an AI business: industrial production, manufacturing, electrification and broader load growth also drive orders.
Electrification equipment captures the grid bottleneck
GE Vernova’s Electrification businesses sell transformers, switchgear, high-voltage direct-current systems, synchronous condensers, grid software and related equipment. These products help connect new generation, manage voltage and power quality, and move electricity to large loads. The 2025 CEO letter reported the company’s largest quarter of direct hyperscaler orders in Electrification in the fourth quarter, although it did not provide a separate dollar figure for those orders.
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Services make the installed base economically important
GE Vernova’s 2025 Form 10-K reported approximately 7,000 installed gas turbines, about 1,800 of them covered by long-term service agreements. The average remaining contract life was approximately 10 years. That installed base can produce inspection, parts, upgrades and maintenance revenue after the initial turbine sale.
| GE Vernova 2025 measure | Reported amount | What it indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Remaining performance obligations | Approximately $94.4 billion | Contracted work not yet recognized as revenue; it spans the company’s businesses, not AI projects alone. |
| Revenue | $38.068 billion | Includes $20.934 billion of equipment revenue and $17.134 billion of services revenue. |
| Backlog | $150 billion | Total company backlog, not a disclosed data-center or AI subtotal. |
| Orders | $59 billion | 2025 orders across the company. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.2 billion | Company-reported 2025 profitability measure. |
| Free cash flow | $3.7 billion | Company-reported 2025 cash generation. |
Secondary reporting on the gas-power business put its turbine backlog at 29 gigawatts and slot reservations at 21 gigawatts. Only about one-third of those reservations were aligned with data centers, according to that report, so the figures should not be treated as a company-filed AI backlog. The same report said industrialization and electrification had been larger order drivers in the prior year.
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What does Caterpillar supply to AI data centers?
Caterpillar’s direct link to AI infrastructure is power generation equipment. Its 2024 Form 10-K said strength in Power Generation for both prime and backup applications was being driven by rising energy needs associated with cloud-computing and generative-AI data-center growth.
Reciprocating engines support primary and distributed power
Caterpillar’s 2026 Power & Energy presentation lists reciprocating engines up to 10 megawatts. Multiple engine-generator units can be installed in parallel, allowing a campus or microgrid to add capacity in stages and keep operating if one unit is offline.
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The same presentation lists turbines from 1 to 39 megawatts and shows applications including data centers, utilities, manufacturing facilities, universities, hospitals and cell towers. A Caterpillar generator set can be used for backup power or, where the project is designed for it, as part of a primary-power system. Industrial installations commonly require a dealer quotation, site engineering, commissioning and an ongoing maintenance plan rather than a simple off-the-shelf purchase.
Disclosure is less granular than GE Vernova’s
Caterpillar does not disclose a standalone percentage of revenue or profit tied to AI data centers in the cited filings and presentations. Its statement identifies data-center demand as a Power Generation driver, but it does not separate generative-AI facilities from cloud, industrial or other customers. Converting that qualitative disclosure into an exact AI revenue estimate would overstate what investors know.
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What is the difference between utility-scale generation and on-site backup power?
Utility-scale generation serves the wider grid, while on-site systems are installed at a facility or in a local microgrid. Both can benefit from data-center construction, but they have different order sizes, buyers, lead times and recurring-service patterns.
| Comparison | GE Vernova | Caterpillar |
|---|---|---|
| Primary role | Utility-scale generation plus transmission, distribution, electrification and software. | Primary and backup generation through reciprocating engines, turbines and generator sets. |
| Data-center linkage | Gas turbines, hyperscaler electrification orders, grid equipment and bridge-power solutions. | On-site primary power, standby power, distributed generation and utility support. |
| Portfolio breadth | Gas, grid, nuclear, wind, storage, software and services. | Power Generation within Energy & Transportation, alongside construction, mining, oil and gas and other markets. |
| Recurring revenue evidence | Approximately 1,800 gas turbines under long-term service agreements, with about 10 years of average remaining contract life. | Engine, turbine and generator-set services; an AI-specific recurring share is not disclosed. |
| AI disclosure | Backlog, installed base, service base and segment revenue are disclosed, but no AI subtotal. | Data-center demand is named as a growth driver, but no AI-specific revenue split is provided. |
For investors, this is the practical dividing line: GE Vernova offers more ways for a single power build-out to generate orders, whereas Caterpillar offers a more concentrated bet on equipment deployed at the customer site.
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How large could the electricity requirement become?
Morningstar’s July 15, 2025 forecast estimated that U.S. data-center power capacity could roughly triple to 80 gigawatts by 2030. It projected that natural gas would meet 60% of incremental AI-related demand, renewables 25% and restarts or expansions of existing nuclear capacity 15%.
Those percentages are an analyst forecast, not guidance from either company. They nevertheless explain why both names can benefit: the gas assumption supports GE Vernova’s turbine business and Caterpillar’s gas-fueled engines and generator sets, while the broader capacity increase creates demand for grid equipment, interconnection work and backup systems. The actual mix will depend on permitting, transmission availability, fuel prices, equipment lead times and data-center construction schedules.
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A 2024 Goldman Sachs industry report similarly placed GE Vernova among power-generation beneficiaries and described Caterpillar as a supplier of generator sets for data-center backup power. That framing is consistent with the product-level distinction rather than a claim that one company receives every dollar of AI infrastructure spending.
Which stock fits a particular AI-power investment thesis?
Choose the thesis first, then assess valuation, execution and the rest of each company’s businesses. The exposure comparison alone does not establish which stock will deliver the higher return.
Use GE Vernova for a broad electricity-infrastructure thesis
- You want exposure to both new generation and the grid equipment needed to connect it.
- You value a large installed turbine base and long-term service agreements.
- You expect data centers to be one part of a wider cycle involving industrial electrification, manufacturing and other load growth.
- You are comfortable with project execution, permitting and the possibility that strong expectations are already reflected in the share price.
Use Caterpillar for a focused distributed-power thesis
- You want exposure to engines, turbines and generator sets installed at individual facilities.
- You expect data centers to use more on-site generation or backup capacity because grid connections take time.
- You prefer a diversified industrial company in which Power Generation is one business rather than the whole investment case.
- You accept that the company does not identify an AI-specific revenue share, making the exposure harder to measure.
What could weaken the AI-power opportunity for either company?
Several risks apply even if data-center electricity demand rises.
- Demand timing: Delayed data-center projects can push equipment orders and revenue into later periods.
- Grid and permitting constraints: Turbines, substations and transmission equipment cannot produce revenue until projects secure sites, interconnections and approvals.
- Technology mix: Greater use of renewables, storage, efficiency improvements or nuclear could reduce the share supplied by gas or diesel-based equipment.
- Execution: Large projects carry manufacturing, logistics, commissioning and warranty risks.
- Cyclicality: Caterpillar’s broader construction, mining and energy markets can move independently of AI demand; GE Vernova’s turbine orders can also reflect non-data-center industrial cycles.
- Disclosure limits: Neither company provides a clean AI revenue or profit line, so investors must track orders, backlog, capacity additions and management commentary instead of relying on a single percentage.
What should investors monitor in future filings?
Watch for changes in gas-turbine orders and reservations, Electrification orders from hyperscalers and utilities, service-agreement growth, and evidence that backlog is converting into revenue and cash at GE Vernova. For Caterpillar, monitor Power Generation order rates, engine and turbine utilization, generator-set deliveries, dealer commentary and whether management gives a more specific split between data centers and other customers. Changes in the forecast power mix or in interconnection delays can affect both companies before reported revenue does.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does Caterpillar report how much of its revenue comes from AI data centers?
No. Its filings identify data-center growth tied to cloud computing and generative AI as a Power Generation driver, but they do not provide a separate AI revenue or profit percentage. The business also serves utilities, manufacturing, hospitals, universities, cell towers and other customers.
Why can a data center need both companies’ equipment?
A project can buy utility-supplied electricity that requires large turbines, transformers and switchgear, while also installing engine-generator sets for standby or local generation. Those purchases sit at different points in the power system, so GE Vernova and Caterpillar can receive orders from the same overall build-out.
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A reservation represents a place in a manufacturer’s future production schedule, not delivered equipment or recognized revenue. It can be canceled, deferred or converted into a firm order, so reservation figures should not be added directly to backlog.
Are the 60% gas, 25% renewables and 15% nuclear shares guaranteed?
No. Those percentages come from Morningstar’s July 2025 U.S. forecast for incremental AI-related demand. They are scenario estimates that can change with permitting, fuel economics, transmission build-out, technology costs and the pace of data-center construction.
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