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The answer depends on the year you are measuring
A sign-up bonus is a one-time reward for a new cardholder. The issuer sets a purchase target and a deadline, such as spending a specified amount during the first few months. The reward may be cash, points, miles or another account credit. Ongoing cash back is the regular earn rate that applies after—and sometimes alongside—the introductory promotion.
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That timing creates two different winners:
- First year: a large bonus often outweighs a modest difference in regular earn rates, provided the required purchases are ordinary expenses.
- Later years: a card with a higher usable rate, suitable categories and a low or zero annual fee can overtake the bonus card.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says promotional rewards such as sign-up bonuses are common features of rewards programs. It also reports that consumers who carry revolving balances can pay much more in interest and fees than they receive in rewards. Rewards should therefore be a by-product of spending you would do anyway, not a reason to borrow.
Calculate both cards on the same assumptions
Compare the offers with identical spending, payment and redemption assumptions. Do not use the bonus card’s optimistic category spend and the other card’s conservative spend; that produces a misleading result.
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Net first-year bonus-card value
Net first-year bonus value = cash value of the bonus + rewards earned on the required spend − annual fee − incremental cost caused by pursuing the offer.
“Incremental cost” includes expenses such as interest, late fees, convenience fees or purchases you would not otherwise have made. If meeting the target requires paying interest, the bonus is not a profit.
Recurring annual value
Recurring annual value = realistic annual eligible spending × applicable ongoing cash-back rate − annual fee.
Use separate spending buckets when rates differ. A card offering 5% in one category may have a quarterly cap, activation requirement or exclusions. Spending above the cap earns the card’s lower base rate, not the headline rate.
Break-even horizon
After the introductory year, calculate the annual advantage of the ongoing card over the alternative. Then use:
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Break-even horizon = net first-year bonus value ÷ annual advantage of the ongoing card.
For example, if the bonus card produces $240 of net first-year bonus value and the alternative is worth $60 more every later year, the recurring card needs four years to make up that initial difference. This is a planning estimate, not a guarantee: spending, fees, category rules and offers can change.
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Chase’s comparison page reviewed on October 14, 2026 lists the following U.S. offers. Offers, caps and eligibility can change, so treat these figures as an illustration to recheck against the issuer’s current pricing-and-terms and rewards agreement when applying.
| Feature | Freedom Flex | Freedom Unlimited |
|---|---|---|
| Introductory bonus | $250 after $500 in purchases during the first three months | $200 after $500 in purchases during the first three months |
| Bonus-category rate | 5% cash back on up to $1,500 in activated quarterly bonus categories | No rotating 5% category stated in the illustration |
| Dining and drugstores | 3% cash back | 3% cash back |
| Chase Travel | 5% cash back | 5% cash back |
| Other purchases | 1% cash back | Unlimited 1.5% cash back |
| Annual fee | $0 | $0 |
The Flex illustration has the larger bonus and a higher potential rate in activated categories, but that rate is capped and requires activation. Unlimited has a smaller bonus and a lower category ceiling, but its 1.5% base rate applies without a stated annual cap. Which earns more depends on how much of your actual spending lands in the eligible categories and whether you remember to activate them.
Worked examples using the illustration
These examples are arithmetic demonstrations, not forecasts. They assume the cardholder pays in full, pays no fees, meets the requirement with normal purchases and receives the stated bonus.
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Scenario 1: Mostly non-bonus spending
Assume $12,000 of first-year purchases, with the $500 requirement spent in ordinary purchases and no spending in Flex’s activated 5% categories. For simplicity, treat Flex’s other purchases as earning 1% and Unlimited’s purchases as earning 1.5%.
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|---|---|---|
| Sign-up bonus | $250 | $200 |
| Rewards on $12,000 spending | $120 | $180 |
| Annual fee | $0 | $0 |
| Illustrative first-year total | $370 | $380 |
Under these assumptions, Unlimited is $10 ahead in year one despite the smaller bonus because its base rate is higher on every purchase. The result changes as soon as Flex spending uses its 5% categories, dining, drugstores or Chase Travel.
Scenario 2: Spending that uses Flex categories
Assume first-year purchases of $12,000 divided into $1,500 of activated quarterly bonus-category spending, $3,000 at dining or drugstores and $7,500 in other purchases. The $500 requirement is included within that total; there is no extra spending.
| Calculation | Freedom Flex | Freedom Unlimited |
|---|---|---|
| Sign-up bonus | $250 | $200 |
| 5% category rewards on $1,500 | $75 | $22.50 at 1.5% |
| Dining/drugstore rewards on $3,000 | $90 | $90 |
| Other-purchase rewards on $7,500 | $75 | $112.50 |
| Annual fee | $0 | $0 |
| Illustrative first-year total | $490 | $425 |
Here Flex is $65 ahead because the household naturally fills the activated category cap. If the cap is not filled, if activation is missed or if purchases are coded outside the eligible category, the advantage shrinks.
Scenario 3: The requirement would create new spending
Suppose a household normally spends $300 in three months but would need to spend an extra $200 to reach a $500 target. The extra purchase is not free: it may be an item that would not have been bought, a fee-bearing transaction or a balance that accrues interest. Subtract that incremental cost from the bonus calculation. A nominal $250 bonus can become a loss if the manufactured spending costs more than the reward.
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When a sign-up bonus is the better choice
- The target fits normal cash flow. Regular bills, groceries and planned purchases can meet the requirement without moving spending forward or buying unnecessary items.
- You can pay each statement in full. Interest and late fees can exceed the bonus, and missing a payment can damage your credit profile.
- The bonus is large compared with fees. Subtract the annual fee for every year it applies, not just the first year.
- You have checked eligibility. Issuers may restrict bonuses for existing or recent cardholders, prior bonuses or other account history.
- You value the redemption method. A cash statement credit is not equivalent to points with restrictions; compare minimum redemptions, expiration rules and available redemption values.
When ongoing cash back is the better choice
- Your spending is stable over multiple years. A repeatable earn rate matters more once the introductory bonus is gone.
- Your purchases match the rate without effort. A lower but automatic rate can beat a higher rate that requires quarterly activation or careful merchant coding.
- You exceed a bonus-category cap. Calculate the rate on the dollars above the cap; they usually earn the base rate.
- The alternative has a lower total cost. Include annual fees, foreign-transaction fees where relevant, and any cost of changing cards or payment routines.
- The bonus requirement would tempt overspending. A predictable return is preferable to a larger theoretical reward that creates debt.
Read the terms that change the arithmetic
Eligibility and issuer-change language
Confirm who qualifies, whether the offer is once per card or once per product family, and whether a prior account or bonus blocks eligibility. Read the current offer terms rather than relying on an advertisement or an older application screen.
Purchase definition and exclusions
Check which transactions count toward the target and which earn rewards. Cash advances, balance transfers, fees, returns and other excluded transactions may not qualify. A purchase that is later returned can reduce the qualifying total or reverse the associated rewards.
Category coding and activation
Merchant category codes—not the item’s description—usually determine whether a transaction qualifies. Rotating categories may require activation before the purchase, and the cap may apply per quarter or another stated period. Save confirmation of activation and monitor progress toward the cap.
Redemption and forfeiture rules
Compare minimum redemption amounts, statement-credit timing, transfer options, expiration, account-closure treatment and whether rewards can be clawed back after a return. A reward’s advertised percentage is useful only if you can redeem it at the value assumed in your calculation.
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Fees and rate changes
Verify the annual fee, penalty fees and any introductory-rate expiration in the pricing-and-terms document. The figures in the Chase illustration are not promises of approval or future availability.
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A safe process for making the choice
- List ordinary spending. Use the last 12 months of statements and separate categories such as groceries, dining, drugstores, travel and general purchases.
- Mark eligible dollars. Apply each card’s category definitions, caps and activation requirements. Treat uncertain merchant coding conservatively.
- Verify the deadline. Record the exact number of days or months, the qualifying purchase date and whether transactions must post by the deadline.
- Compute first-year value. Add the bonus and rewards on required spending, then subtract the annual fee and every incremental cost.
- Compute later-year value. Remove the one-time bonus and calculate a full year of realistic category and base-rate rewards.
- Run low- and high-spend cases. Test a normal year, a lower-spend year and a year in which category caps are fully used. This shows whether the result depends on optimistic assumptions.
- Set a payment plan. Schedule autopay for at least the statement balance and keep a written record of the qualifying spend.
- Recheck before applying. Confirm the live offer, terms, annual fee and eligibility on the issuer’s application page on the day of application.
Why many people miss the bonus
The CFPB’s 2024 issue spotlight, citing its 2023 report, said about one in four consumers eligible for a promotional bonus failed to meet the requirements in 2022. Common practical causes are an unclear deadline, returned purchases, excluded transactions, a missed activation step or an assumption that an application date—not a posted purchase date—controls the clock.
The CFPB also reported in 2023 that nearly one in 10 dollars consumers earned in rewards was linked to sign-up bonuses. That scale explains why issuers promote bonuses heavily, but it does not make every bonus suitable for every budget. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra warned: “Credit card companies promise upfront benefits for signing up and using their rewards card, but often bury complex terms in the fine print for using the rewards.”
How to handle the card after the bonus
Once the bonus posts, reassess the card as if the promotion did not exist. Keep it when its ongoing categories, base rate, benefits and fee still fit your spending. If another card is better, account for the effect of closing or changing accounts, any annual-fee refund policy and the practical work of moving recurring payments. Do not close an account solely to chase another bonus without considering the issuer’s eligibility rules and your broader credit-management plan.
Offers are volatile: welcome amounts, spending windows, annual percentage rates, annual fees, category caps and eligibility rules can all change. The U.S. figures above were reviewed October 14, 2026; check the issuer’s current pricing-and-terms and rewards agreement again when you apply.
Quick Recap
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