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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Short answer: Bitcoin lost value in each of the three comparable U.S. midterm election years—2014, 2018 and 2022—but posted a positive return over the following 12 months in every case. That sounds like a repeatable cycle, yet it is only a three-example description, not a dependable forecast for 2026. The two sets of figures also use different time windows, and midterm years overlap with Bitcoin’s roughly four-year halving-related cycle.
The useful conclusion is therefore narrower than “Bitcoin always rallies after midterms.” History shows a sharp calendar-year decline followed by a positive year in this small sample. It does not establish that elections caused either move or that the same sequence must occur in 2026.
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What happened in the three comparable midterm years?
Fidelity Institutional’s January 2026 Investment Strategy Monthly, using Coin Metrics data through December 31, 2025, lists negative Bitcoin returns for all three modern midterm years included in the comparison:
| Midterm year | Bitcoin calendar-year return | Data source and window |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | -56% | Fidelity table; Coin Metrics data for January 1–December 31, 2014 |
| 2018 | -73% | Fidelity table; Coin Metrics data for January 1–December 31, 2018 |
| 2022 | -64% | Fidelity table; Coin Metrics data for January 1–December 31, 2022 |
These are calendar-year returns. They do not measure the move from the election date to December 31, nor do they isolate the months immediately before or after voting. A year can contain a midterm election and still have most of its gain or loss occur in a different part of the calendar.
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The 2010 midterm is generally left out of this comparison because Bitcoin was still nascent, making it less comparable with the later market. With only 2014, 2018 and 2022, the apparent pattern rests on three observations.
Did Bitcoin rise during the year after each midterm?
CryptoQuant’s October 2026 Quicktake reports positive Bitcoin performance over the 12 months following each of those midterms:
| Midterm year | Reported return in the following 12 months | What the figure measures |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | +24.5% | CryptoQuant-reported post-midterm 12-month window |
| 2018 | +44.9% | CryptoQuant-reported post-midterm 12-month window |
| 2022 | +92.3% | CryptoQuant-reported post-midterm 12-month window |
Those percentages are not interchangeable with Fidelity’s calendar-year losses. They use a separate post-election window and a different reported price-series calculation. Do not average the two sets, subtract one from the other, or present them as if they began and ended on the same dates. The accurate statement is simply that every negative calendar-year observation in the sample was followed by a positive CryptoQuant-reported 12-month observation.
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A positive endpoint did not mean a smooth recovery
CryptoQuant also reports that Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 midterms before ending the reported 12-month window higher. A year-end or one-year result can conceal a severe drawdown, forced selling, or a long period of losses along the way. Anyone interpreting the pattern needs to distinguish the eventual endpoint from the path an investor had to endure.
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Why the pattern is not a 2026 forecast
Three cases are too few for a dependable rule
A sequence that occurred three times can be descriptive without being predictive. There is no statistical basis here for assigning a probability that 2026 will repeat the earlier sequence. A fourth observation would still be limited, particularly because Bitcoin’s market, liquidity and investor base have changed substantially since 2014.
Midterms overlap with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
Midterm elections arrive every four years, and Bitcoin’s market is often discussed in terms of a roughly four-year cycle associated with its halving schedule. That timing overlap creates a basic identification problem: a rise or fall after an election could reflect the broader crypto cycle, supply expectations, macroeconomic conditions or market positioning rather than the election itself.
Fidelity’s January 2026 report describes this question directly: “A key theme of 2026 will be whether the four-year cycle still matters for bitcoin and digital asset markets.” The sentence is a statement from Fidelity’s report, not a guarantee that the cycle will continue.
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Fidelity points to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products and related hedging instruments as changes in market structure. It also notes that more than 95% of Bitcoin’s eventual 21 million supply was already in circulation by its January 2026 commentary. Those facts may affect liquidity, access and how investors express bullish or bearish views, but they do not prove that an exchange-traded product, circulating supply or election caused a particular return.
Where does Bitcoin stand before the 2026 comparison?
Any 2026 discussion must be dated. A 24/7 Wall St. report published October 5, 2026, described Bitcoin as about 3% lower year to date and about 32% below its reported October 2025 high. Those were October 5 measurements, not a live October 13 or October 18 quote, and they should not be treated as a full-year 2026 return.
Fidelity’s January outlook also referred to an October 10, 2025 liquidation event and a negative annual return for 2025. The references provide context for the starting conditions of the 2026 election year; they do not establish what Bitcoin will do after the election.
Because prices move continuously, a later reader should check the date and calculation window attached to any 2026 percentage. “Down this year,” “below the prior high” and “down since the midterms” answer different questions.
How to read the historical comparison without mixing windows
- Start with the calendar-year question. Ask whether Bitcoin finished the entire midterm year above or below its January 1 level. On the Fidelity/Coin Metrics series, 2014, 2018 and 2022 were all negative.
- Then define the post-election window. The CryptoQuant figures describe the next 12 months after each midterm, not the remainder of the election year.
- Check the path, not only the endpoint. The 2018 example included a 45.5% decline in the first month of the post-midterm period.
- Separate description from cause. The repeated calendar sequence does not show that voting dates, congressional control or campaign events produced the returns.
- Ask what changed. Exchange-traded products, derivatives and a more mature market can alter behavior relative to earlier cycles.
One media summary describes an “average 54%” rebound. That description is based on calendar-year rebound calculations and is not the same measurement as CryptoQuant’s post-midterm 12-month series. Quoting the average without naming its window can make two different analyses appear to agree when they do not.
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What the broader election evidence can—and cannot—say
BlackRock’s October 2026 analysis discusses U.S. stock-market behavior around midterms, not Bitcoin. It reports an average six-month post-election return of 14.1% for the S&P 500 since 1970, compared with 5.7% in non-midterm years. Those are equity statistics. They may illustrate how investors study election timing, but they are not Bitcoin history and cannot be substituted for a Bitcoin forecast.
Likewise, a presidential-cycle Bitcoin chart that groups 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026 as midterm years can help explain a visualization. Its daily year-to-date ratio is each day’s Bitcoin price divided by that year’s January 1 price, and the chart warns that data may be revised. That methodology is different from both Fidelity’s calendar-year table and CryptoQuant’s post-midterm calculation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could make 2026 diverge?
Macro conditions and liquidity
The earlier observations do not control for interest rates, dollar conditions, credit stress, global liquidity or risk appetite. Any of those can dominate an election-year effect. A midterm can occur while markets are responding primarily to inflation, recession concerns, monetary policy or a financial shock.
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Different participants and instruments
Spot exchange-traded products and hedging markets can bring new buyers, sellers and risk-management tools into Bitcoin. Their presence may dampen, amplify or simply redistribute volatility. The historical sample predates at least some of these structures, so a mechanical replay is especially uncertain.
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Supply-cycle expectations
The halving narrative may remain psychologically influential even if its economic effect changes as the block subsidy becomes a smaller share of total market activity. If investors trade around that narrative, the resulting cycle could coincide with midterms without being caused by them.
Starting valuation and prior drawdowns
A market that begins a midterm year far below a previous high has a different recovery burden from one near a record. The October 5, 2026 description of Bitcoin’s level relative to its 2025 high is therefore context, not a signal that a rebound is “due.”
How a reader can use the pattern responsibly
- Use it as a calendar observation, not a trading rule. Three down years followed by three positive 12-month windows are worth noting, but they do not establish an edge.
- Match the horizon to the claim. A calendar-year loss says nothing certain about the next month; a positive 12-month endpoint says nothing about interim drawdowns.
- Define risk before looking for a pattern. Bitcoin can decline sharply even when a historical window eventually finishes higher. Decide in advance what loss, volatility and holding period are acceptable.
- Verify dates on every chart. Check whether a figure uses January 1, election day, month-end or a rolling 12-month endpoint.
- Do not import stock-market statistics. S&P 500 midterm averages are not evidence that Bitcoin will follow them.
- Keep the 2026 conclusion conditional. The available record cannot determine whether Bitcoin will fall during 2026, rise afterward or do something entirely different.
Bottom line for the 2026 midterms
The historical record presents a real but narrow contrast: Bitcoin fell 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018 and 64% in 2022 on Fidelity’s calendar-year series, while CryptoQuant reports gains of 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the respective following 12-month windows. The figures use different clocks, and the post-2018 path included a 45.5% first-month drop.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThat is enough to say the “down in the midterm year, up in the next year” sequence happened three times. It is not enough to say which pattern wins in 2026. Election timing overlaps with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, market structure has evolved, and the sample is too small to separate an election effect from the many forces that move Bitcoin. Treat the calendar as context, then evaluate current conditions and personal risk capacity rather than assuming a rally is owed.
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