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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsBernie Sanders’ proposed Social Security package would tax earnings above $250,000, add taxes on certain investment income, raise annual benefits by $2,400 and expand cost-of-living adjustments. Sanders cites a 2023 Social Security Administration (SSA) actuarial estimate saying the approach could keep the system solvent for 75 years. Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget argues that the revenue, behavioral effects and cost of larger benefits do not fit that simple conclusion. The proposal has not been enacted, and the sources available do not show a new official 2026 score.
What Sanders’ proposal would change
Sanders’ August 4, 2026 Senate release describes a package rather than a single payroll-tax increase. Its main elements are:
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- A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax on covered earnings above $250,000.
- A $2,400-per-year increase in benefits.
- Expanded cost-of-living adjustments.
- A 12.4% tax on investment income above existing Affordable Care Act thresholds: $200,000 for single filers and $250,000 for married couples filing jointly.
- A 16.2% net-investment-income tax for active S-corporation holders and active limited partners, under the SSA estimate’s assumptions.
Sanders says the 2023 SSA estimate found that the legislation would make Social Security solvent for 75 years without increasing taxes on 91% of people earning below $250,000. His Senate release also cites 78% public support and presents the policy as asking high-income households to pay the same percentage of income as workers whose wages are fully subject to the existing tax.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Those support and distribution figures are claims in Sanders’ release, not an independently verified poll or a separate tax-distribution study in the material available here.
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What the 2023 SSA estimate actually modeled
The SSA Office of the Chief Actuary issued its actuarial memorandum on February 13, 2023. It modeled individual provisions and reported their effects as reductions in the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit, measured as a percentage of taxable payroll.
| Provision modeled | SSA estimate of deficit reduction | What the figure means |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% payroll tax on covered earnings above $250,000 | 2.46% of taxable payroll | A modeled long-range effect under the memorandum’s assumptions; it is not a forecast of cash already collected. |
| 12.4% tax on investment income above ACA thresholds | 1.93% of taxable payroll | Applies above $200,000 for single filers and $250,000 for joint filers in the modeled provision. |
| 16.2% net-investment-income tax for active S-corporation holders and active limited partners | 0.92% of taxable payroll | A separate modeled provision aimed at specified active-business investment income. |
Sanders’ 75-year-solvency statement depends on the package as a whole, including its benefit provisions and the assumptions used for taxable income, labor income and investment income. The tabled percentages should not be added or interpreted as a guaranteed collection total without the memorandum’s full interactions and timing assumptions.
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Why Goldwein says “the math doesn’t quite math”
Benzinga reported on October 16, 2026 that Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, responded to Sanders’ proposal on X. The report, which disclosed AI-assisted production, quoted Goldwein saying: “Sorry, the math doesn’t quite math here.”
The taxable-earnings trade-off
Goldwein said that raising or repealing the taxable earnings maximum could close approximately half of Social Security’s shortfall if benefits were not paid on the newly taxable earnings. That qualification matters: collecting tax without creating a corresponding benefit obligation raises more net revenue than taxing earnings while also crediting them toward future benefits.
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Investment-income revenue is not automatically net revenue
Goldwein said taxing capital gains could raise money for Social Security, but that almost all of the revenue might be lost on the income-tax side if capital gains were taxed above their revenue-maximizing level. His point is about the tax system as a whole: a higher Social Security levy can change how much income is realized, how it is characterized and how much remains subject to other taxes.
Benefit increases add a permanent cost
Goldwein also said, “Other investment taxes could generate more, but the benefit expansions are also expensive.” The $2,400 annual increase and expanded COLAs therefore have to be financed alongside the system’s existing obligations. Goldwein’s comments are a trade-off argument, not a new official actuarial score.
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What CBO says about the solvency problem
The Congressional Budget Office’s July 15, 2026 answers put the dispute in a wider fiscal context:
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11- The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is projected to exhaust in fiscal year 2032.
- The 75-year OASI unfunded obligation is $30.3 trillion, citing the trustees.
- CBO estimates a $207 billion OASI deficit in 2026, equal to 1.9% of taxable payroll.
- Combined OASI and Disability Insurance outlays are projected to exceed dedicated tax revenues by $249 billion in 2026.
- A Federal Reserve estimate cited by CBO puts household wealth held by the top 1% at $55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
Trust-fund exhaustion is a financing deadline, not a legal statement that benefits automatically fall to zero. Once reserves are depleted, incoming dedicated revenues would be insufficient to pay scheduled benefits in full unless Congress changes taxes, benefits, transfers or other rules.
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Why headline tax revenue can differ from solvency results
CBO warns that higher taxes on labor or investment income raise marginal tax rates. Its assessment is that people may work and save less than they otherwise would, and that some on-budget income-tax revenue could decline. CBO also says these effects may reduce gross domestic product in the short term.
That does not prove that Sanders’ package would fail. It explains why a gross estimate of money raised from a new tax is not the same as the net improvement in Social Security’s actuarial balance. A complete score must account for taxable-income responses, the interaction with income taxes, timing, administrative collection and the benefits credited on newly taxed earnings.
Does the SSA estimate include benefit increases and investment taxes?
The cited SSA memorandum modeled the investment-income provisions and the above-$250,000 payroll-tax provision separately, with the effects shown in the table above. Sanders’ public description of the legislation combines those taxes with a $2,400 benefit increase and larger COLAs when making the 75-year-solvency claim. Readers should therefore distinguish the memorandum’s provision-by-provision outputs from the broader political claim about the complete package.
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The available material does not show a new 2026 SSA or CBO score that incorporates every final legislative detail. Until an updated official estimate is published, the 75-year result remains tied to the 2023 memorandum and its stated assumptions.
What is known—and not yet settled
Established in the cited material
- Sanders is proposing taxes on high earnings and specified investment income together with higher benefits and expanded COLAs.
- The 2023 SSA memorandum produced separate modeled deficit reductions for the provisions listed above.
- Goldwein disputes the simple arithmetic by emphasizing behavioral responses, tax interactions and the cost of benefit expansion.
- CBO projects OASI trust-fund exhaustion in fiscal year 2032 and identifies a large long-term funding gap.
Not established by the cited material
- That the proposal is law.
- That one 12.4% rate guarantees 75-year solvency.
- That the October 2026 proposal has received a new official 2026 actuarial score.
- That trust-fund exhaustion would end all Social Security payments.
How to evaluate the proposal as estimates change
Any future comparison should ask five questions: What income is taxed—earnings above $250,000, all earnings, investment income or wealth? What benefits are promised, including the $2,400 increase and COLA changes? Is the measure judged over a 75-year actuarial horizon or by the 2032 exhaustion date? What behavioral assumptions are used? And is the number an official SSA or CBO estimate, or an advocacy analysis?
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