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In its July 25, 2024 midyear forecast, the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) projected U.S. consumer-technology retail revenue would rise 1% to $505 billion in 2024, then grow 4.4% to $527 billion in 2025. Those figures were forecasts—not final results—and CTA later issued a higher 2025 estimate: $537 billion, or 3.2% growth. The distinction matters: the original headline describes one dated outlook, not what U.S. households ultimately spent or CTA’s latest projection.
CTA’s forecasts changed as the outlook evolved
The July 2024 figures are best read alongside the association’s other forecast vintages. Each was an estimate made at a different point in time, not a settled measurement of consumer spending.
| Forecast date | 2024 outlook | 2025 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| January 2024, CTA | $512 billion; growth of 2.8% | Not the focus of this forecast |
| July 2024, CTA | $505 billion; growth of 1% | $527 billion; growth of 4.4% |
| January 2025, CTA | Updated base-year outlook | $537 billion; growth of 3.2% |
CTA’s January 2024 estimate was more optimistic about that year than its July midyear forecast. In January 2025, CTA issued a new outlook of $537 billion for 2025. That later figure superseded the earlier $527 billion projection. These are different forecast snapshots; the shift does not by itself establish the final measured revenue for either year.
What the $505 billion and $527 billion measure
CTA’s headline metric is industry retail revenue in the United States, not a direct tally of household budgets or a survey asking families how much they spent. Its forecast spans a broad mix of consumer-technology products and services, including hardware, software, subscriptions, streaming, gaming and digital services. CTA describes its forecasts as informed by member input, its analysts and industry expertise, and third-party data.
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That breadth makes the total useful as an industry benchmark, but it also means “consumer tech spending” is shorthand. Retail revenue can rise because more units sell, because prices rise, or because the mix shifts toward higher-priced products or services. It can fall even if shipment volume holds up when average prices decline. Recurring subscriptions and one-time device purchases also do not move in lockstep.
CTA’s product description for its January 2025 one-year forecast says it covers more than 200 hardware products and services, with measures such as revenue, shipments, average wholesale prices and household penetration. The exact scope and accounting can vary by report and forecast vintage, so totals from different providers should not be treated as interchangeable.
Why CTA expected 2024 to be a slow year
The July forecast reflected several pressures on hardware. Many households had bought computers and other devices during the pandemic, reducing the urgency to replace them soon afterward. With inflation and other household costs weighing on budgets, some consumers were delaying upgrades or waiting for discounts. A modest revenue forecast did not necessarily mean fewer devices would ship across every category.
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Prices were another part of the story. CTA described technology as “deflationary”: innovation and competition can deliver more features or better performance at lower prices. In its July release, CTA cited 2023 price declines for 4K televisions, smart doorbells, wireless earbuds and home gaming consoles. Lower prices may help consumers afford useful products, but they can hold down industry revenue even when unit demand is stable or improving. Falling product prices do not automatically mean a household’s total technology bill falls; families may buy more, choose premium models or add subscriptions.
CTA expected software and services to cushion weaker hardware revenue. Its July forecast put those categories at about 33% of the consumer-technology total. That share matters because entertainment, cloud-connected products and other recurring services can generate revenue while consumers postpone a laptop or television upgrade.
What was supposed to lift growth in 2025?
CTA’s projected acceleration rested partly on a hardware refresh cycle. As pandemic-era computers and devices aged, more owners might replace them. The association also pointed to AI-enabled computers as a possible reason to upgrade: it expected dozens of AI PC laptop models to enter the market during 2024. That was a forecast of a potential demand driver, not proof that AI features would cause consumers to buy new computers.
Computing indicators in the July outlook were comparatively encouraging. CTA expected U.S. laptop shipments to reach about 53 million units in 2024, up 4% year over year. It also expected six of 12 major hardware categories to ship more units than in 2023, including computing (up 3.6%), digital health devices (up 1.2%) and digital cameras (up 6.2%). Those are shipment projections, not growth rates for revenue. Price declines and product mix can make revenue growth smaller than unit growth.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesEntertainment was another expected support. CTA projected gaming spending would exceed $50 billion in 2024, up 3%, citing factors including cross-platform games, independent titles and gaming subscriptions. It forecast live-TV streaming revenue of nearly $11.8 billion, an 11% increase, with sports programming and wider access to live sports among the expected attractions. Those category forecasts help explain the role of services and content, but they do not mean all games, streaming platforms or households would see the same trend.
Software and services: why the published figures differ
CTA published more than one estimate for software and services, and the numbers should be tied to their reports rather than blended. The July 2024 industry forecast put the segment at roughly 33% of total consumer technology. A separate earlier CTA forecast projected $157 billion in 2024 consumer-technology software and services spending, up 3.7%. CTA’s broader 2024 state-of-the-industry report described a $163 billion opportunity, around 31% of industry revenue.
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The $157 billion and $163 billion figures come from reports with different dates and definitions; they are not necessarily competing estimates of an identical measure. The respective sources are CTA’s software-and-services forecast and its 2024 industry report. The practical point is that services were a substantial part of CTA’s industry picture, but a figure from one report should not be substituted for a share or total in another without checking the methodology.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Other forecasters saw a weaker 2024
CTA was not the only forecaster, and its outlook was not universally shared. In July 2024, Circana forecast a 2% decline in U.S. consumer-technology sales revenue for the year, citing weak first-half performance and economic pressure. In January 2025, Circana said preliminary results indicated 2024 dollar sales would finish 1.3% below 2023, and projected 1.6% growth in 2025. It expected computers, portable audio and televisions to account for more than 70% of the projected gains.
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Those estimates differ from CTA’s, but the providers may not be measuring exactly the same market. CTA’s forecast covers a broad range of products and services, while Circana’s retail tracking may place more emphasis on a narrower set of retail sales. The coverage of subscriptions and services, the revenue basis and the forecast date can all affect the total. Compare the direction and assumptions carefully rather than treating a percentage from one provider as a direct correction of another.
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Sources: Circana’s July 2024 outlook and January 2025 update.
What this kind of forecast means for consumers
An industry revenue forecast is not a prediction that every household will spend more, or that every device will cost more. For consumers, the underlying forces can point in different directions at once: delayed upgrades and discounting may make hardware purchases more affordable, while new features such as AI capabilities may encourage some buyers to replace older computers. Streaming, gaming and connected services can continue adding costs even when a household puts off buying a device.
CTA’s January 2025 outlook also warned that proposed tariffs could threaten the sector’s price advantages and consumers’ purchasing power. That was a risk attached to its later forecast, not evidence in itself that tariffs had been implemented or that retail prices had risen by a specific amount. Any actual effect depends on policy, supply chains and how companies respond.
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