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Yes: a tiny device can attempt to mine a Bitcoin block and, if it finds one that the network accepts, earn the full block subsidy and transaction fees. But the Raspberry Pi Zero project behind “lottery mining” was a technical experiment, not a practical income plan. The Pi managed the setup; a USB AntMiner ASIC did the specialized hashing. For a small miner, the chance of a block is so low that the sensible reasons to run one are learning or entertainment.
What the tiny Bitcoin miner actually did
In a project reported by Hackaday on May 13, 2023, a Raspberry Pi Zero acted as the controller for an AntMiner USB device. Bitcoin mining requires enormous numbers of SHA-256 calculations; the ASIC peripheral performed that specialized work, while the Pi handled the general-purpose computing and connection tasks. A Pi Zero on its own is not a competitive Bitcoin miner. Hackaday’s project report described the setup as a way to make a tiny device attempt the mining lottery.
The report’s headline estimate was roughly one chance in two billion under the conditions measured at the time. That is a historical estimate, not a current probability: the result depends on the device’s actual hashrate and the network’s mining conditions, which change. The report does not establish enough detail to treat its configuration as definitively direct mining against Bitcoin Core, a conventional pool, or a particular solo-mining service. “Lottery mining” is best understood as a description of the goal, not proof of one specific network architecture.
How Bitcoin mining works
Mining software assembles a candidate block and repeatedly hashes its header, changing values such as the nonce and additional coinbase data. A hash is a valid proof of work only if it falls below the network’s target. The miner is searching for an unpredictable result; more hashes mean more chances, but no guarantee of success. Bitcoin’s developer guide to mining explains block templates, targets, and the work needed to produce and submit a block.
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The Raspberry Pi’s role is therefore closer to a coordinator than a mining engine. It runs or connects the mining software, manages work and networking, and can be configured with an address for a potential reward. The ASIC is what performs Bitcoin’s repeated SHA-256 calculations. A wallet receiving address is not the same thing as a seed phrase or private key; mining software should never need a wallet’s secret recovery information.
Solo mining versus pool mining
Solo mining means attempting to find a complete Bitcoin block for yourself. If your block is accepted, the reward belongs to you. Pool mining instead combines participants’ work: miners submit partial proofs called shares, and the pool distributes payouts according to its rules. A share is evidence of work at the pool’s easier target; it is not necessarily a valid Bitcoin block.
| Feature | Solo mining | Pool mining |
|---|---|---|
| Potential payout | Full block subsidy and fees if your block is accepted | Smaller payouts allocated under the pool’s rules |
| Payment pattern | Extremely irregular; a miner may never find a block | Generally more regular, depending on pool terms and contributed work |
| Variance | Very high | Lower than solo mining |
| Infrastructure | A node or a service that submits work as solo mining | A pool connection and its payout arrangement |
| Typical purpose | Experimentation or a high-variance attempt at the full reward | Sharing work and smoothing payouts |
A “solo pool” can be a server that supplies work and submits a candidate block without sharing the reward among miners. The label alone does not tell you who gets paid. Check the service’s payout rules. Some small-device services, including the one described by NerdMiner, accept a Bitcoin address as the worker identity for a true-solo setup. Validate the address and make sure it is compatible before mining.
Why it is like a lottery—and why the odds are not fixed
Every hash is a trial against the network target. If a miner controls a fraction of the network’s total hashing work, its chance of finding the next block is approximately that same fraction. For a period expected to contain N blocks, an approximate probability of at least one success is:
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P(at least one block) = 1 − (1 − h/H)N
Here, h is the miner’s hashrate and H is the network hashrate. When the probability is very small, the expression is approximately N × h/H. This estimates chance, not a schedule: the expected time to a block is an average, not a promise. A small miner could get lucky early, or run indefinitely without a win.
For the Raspberry Pi Zero and USB ASIC setup, the roughly one-in-two-billion estimate belongs to Hackaday’s 2023 report and its then-current conditions. It should not be repeated as today’s odds. To calculate a current estimate, you need the exact device hashrate and contemporaneous network data. A recent report of a small miner winning a block proves that the outcome is possible, not that it is likely: exceptional wins attract attention precisely because most attempts do not succeed. Reports of 2026 solo wins, including a palm-sized Bitaxe, are examples of outliers, not a revised probability for every small miner (2026 solo-mining reports; reported palm-sized Bitaxe win).
What a genuine block win means
A winning hash is only the start of the process. Mining software must produce a complete candidate block, which is broadcast to the network. Bitcoin nodes check its proof of work, transactions, and coinbase transaction. If accepted into the chain, the coinbase reward is subject to Bitcoin’s maturity rule before it can be spent; additional blocks building on the winner reduce the practical risk that a competing block displaces it.
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- Accepted share: The pool or service has accepted a proof meeting its share target. This does not mean you have earned a Bitcoin block reward.
- Valid block: A candidate meets Bitcoin’s network target and passes validation, making it eligible for the block subsidy and included transaction fees.
- Confirmed block: Later blocks build on it. A valid solution that loses a race to a competing block may not become a lasting, spendable reward.
As of August 18, 2026, the block subsidy is 3.125 BTC, in addition to transaction fees included in the block. The next halving is expected in 2028, when the subsidy is scheduled to fall to 1.5625 BTC. The subsidy is denominated in bitcoin; its dollar value changes with the market price. See the Bitcoin mining guide and the 2026 Federal Register document.
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Does a tiny miner make financial sense?
As an expected-value investment, a Raspberry Pi and small USB ASIC are generally a poor choice. The device’s low electricity use does not offset the fact that its share of Bitcoin’s total hashing work is tiny. Industrial miners operate at vastly larger scales, and network difficulty adjusts to keep blocks arriving near the protocol’s target interval. Cheap-to-run is not the same as favorable odds.
Even a basic power estimate needs actual consumption and your local electricity rate:
Annual electricity cost = watts × 8.76 × electricity price per kWh
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A continuously operating 1-watt device uses about 8.76 kWh in a year. Multiply that by your rate to estimate electricity expense; this does not account for hardware cost, service fees, maintenance, or the value of your time. For a complete assessment, compare those costs with a highly uncertain reward, device failure and resale value, and Bitcoin’s price volatility. FutureBit’s explanation of solo mining likewise distinguishes the full-block upside from the extreme variance and lack of dependable monthly income.
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Choose hardware for the purpose, not the jackpot story
| Option | Best suited to | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Raspberry Pi Zero with USB ASIC | Learning how a controller and dedicated hashing hardware work together | The 2023 report does not establish current odds or a clearly specified mining architecture |
| ESP32 NerdMiner | A low-power educational or novelty desk device | Extremely limited hashing power; a displayed share is not a block win |
| Bitaxe-class ASIC | Open-source hardware experimentation with substantially more hashing power than an ESP32 | Still has very low solo-block odds compared with the network; revisions and specifications vary |
| Home miner such as FutureBit Apollo III | A more substantial home-mining and node project | Higher upfront cost, heat and power needs, and continued solo-mining variance |
| Industrial ASIC with a pool | Readers seeking mining payouts that are more regular than solo rewards | Hardware, electricity, cooling, noise, and pool terms determine the economics |
NerdMiner’s official site describes compatibility with ESP32 and Bitaxe devices and lists a Bitaxe Gamma 601 at approximately 1.2 TH/s; confirm the exact revision and firmware before relying on that figure (NerdMiner). FutureBit listed Apollo III preorders starting at $899 and a Solo Node starting at $299 during the August 2026 information snapshot (FutureBit products). Availability and pricing can change, and a higher hashrate improves odds without making a block win predictable.
If the goal is regular mining income, pooled mining reduces payout variance but does not remove hardware and electricity costs. If the goal is Bitcoin exposure, buying Bitcoin directly may be simpler than buying a lottery miner, but that choice carries its own market and custody risks and is not a guaranteed return.
Practical checks before connecting a small miner
- Confirm the mining mode: Determine whether the device mines to a conventional pool, a true solo service, or your own node, and read who receives any block reward.
- Verify the receiving address: Use a valid compatible Bitcoin address, check it character by character, and test the configuration before leaving the miner unattended.
- Keep wallet secrets private: A miner may need a receiving address, never a seed phrase or private key.
- Match firmware to hardware: Check the exact board revision, chip, display, and firmware instructions. ESP32 and Bitaxe devices are not interchangeable in every detail.
- Check power and cooling: Use a suitable power supply and provide cooling appropriate to the specific ASIC and its operating settings.
- Interpret the dashboard carefully: A reported share or accepted share confirms work at a pool target; it is not proof that a Bitcoin block has been found.
- Expect stale work: Once another miner finds a block, miners need updated work. Hashes spent against an obsolete block template do not help find the next one.
- Assess service and software risk: Verify downloaded firmware and software, and remember that third-party mining services can change or disappear.
The useful verdict
A tiny Bitcoin miner is real in the narrow technical sense: with suitable ASIC hardware and valid work submission, it can participate in the search for a block. The Raspberry Pi Zero itself is the controller, not the source of meaningful hashing power. Treat the project as a way to learn Bitcoin mining or enjoy a very long-shot experiment—not as a dependable way to earn bitcoin or a substitute for serious mining equipment.
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