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The smartphone market returned to growth in 2024, but it did not return to its old growth model. After two years of decline, global shipments recovered modestly. The industry’s more important shift was economic: manufacturers increasingly relied on premium phones, longer software support, generative AI, foldables, 5G adoption and refurbished-device demand rather than dramatic increases in unit sales.
For consumers, that means the future is not necessarily a radically different phone every year. It is more likely to be a better-supported device that lasts longer, offers selectively useful AI tools and costs more at the premium end. Whether upgrading makes financial sense depends on your phone’s condition, remaining software support and the specific problem a new device would solve.
2024 was a recovery, not a return to the smartphone boom
The global smartphone market had declined for two consecutive years before 2024. In 2024, shipments began growing again, helped by replacement demand, improving inventory conditions, stronger sales in China and emerging markets, promotional offers and the arrival of new premium devices.
Estimates differ because research firms do not measure exactly the same thing. Omdia estimated approximately 1.223 billion smartphones shipped globally in 2024, up 7.1% year over year. Counterpoint’s earlier forecast anticipated about 1.23 billion units and 5% growth, while its year-end analysis also described 2024 as a recovery year. See Omdia’s 2024 shipment data and Counterpoint’s year-end analysis.
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“Shipments” are units sent through manufacturers and distribution channels. They are not identical to phones sold to final consumers. Revenue, retail sell-through, average selling price, installed-base size and upgrade frequency can all move differently. A shipment recovery therefore does not mean that every household upgraded or that smartphones became more affordable.
Why estimates vary
- Shipments versus sell-through: A phone may be counted when delivered to a distributor rather than when purchased by a consumer.
- Forecast versus final estimate: Counterpoint’s 5% figure was a forecast made before the full year ended; Omdia’s figure was a later annual estimate.
- Brand classification: Research firms may classify subsidiaries and affiliated brands differently.
- Regional timing: Product launches, promotions and inventory adjustments do not occur simultaneously worldwide.
The safest conclusion is that 2024 marked a genuine but uneven global recovery. It was not evidence that consumers everywhere had resumed buying new phones as frequently as they did earlier in the smartphone era.
Premium phones became the industry’s economic center
The industry increasingly wants to sell fewer, more expensive phones. Premium devices generate more revenue per unit and are the first to receive advanced processors, displays, cameras, security features and AI capabilities. They also allow manufacturers to defend margins when overall unit growth is limited.
Counterpoint reported that smartphones priced above $800 gained share in the second quarter of 2024, while sub-$400 devices lost share. The same quarter recorded 8% year-over-year shipment growth and a record-high second-quarter average selling price, according to Counterpoint’s Q2 analysis.
Several forces support premiumization:
- Consumers are holding phones longer and may prefer a device designed to remain useful for several years.
- Trade-in credits, carrier financing and promotional pricing reduce the upfront cost of expensive models.
- High-end phones offer better cameras, battery efficiency, displays and gaming performance.
- Manufacturers use premium hardware as the foundation for AI services and ecosystem features.
- Strong resale values can reduce the effective cost of ownership for some models.
But a higher average selling price does not automatically mean consumers are better off. It may reflect genuine improvements, higher component costs, aggressive premium marketing or a shift in what manufacturers choose to release. A $1,000 phone that remains supported for six years may offer better value than a $500 phone abandoned after two or three years, but the comparison depends on support, repair cost, battery health and actual use.
Apple and Samsung remained especially important in the premium segment, but unit leadership and financial leadership are different. In Counterpoint’s Q2 2024 data, Samsung held the largest shipment share, while Apple generated 42% of smartphone revenue. That is why “market leader” should always be qualified by period, geography and metric.
Generative AI moved from the cloud into the phone
Generative AI was the defining smartphone product story of 2024. Samsung positioned the Galaxy S24 family around Galaxy AI; Google integrated Gemini-related capabilities into the Pixel 9 family; Apple introduced Apple Intelligence-era features with the iPhone 16 generation; and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and MediaTek’s Dimensity 9300 promoted dedicated neural-processing capabilities.
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- AI-capable hardware: The chipset can run or accelerate machine-learning workloads.
- AI availability: The manufacturer provides particular functions on a supported device, operating system, language and region.
- AI adoption: Owners use those functions frequently enough for them to influence satisfaction or justify an upgrade.
Market statistics usually measure the first category, sometimes combined with a manufacturer’s feature definition. They do not necessarily show whether people repeatedly use the features.
Counterpoint estimated that GenAI-capable smartphones represented approximately 11% of overall shipments in 2024 and forecast that the share could reach 43% by 2027 under its methodology. Gartner used a different category definition and forecast 295 million combined AI PC and GenAI smartphone shipments in 2024, with GenAI smartphones representing 22% of basic and premium smartphones. These figures are not directly interchangeable. Compare Counterpoint’s forecast with Gartner’s forecast definition.
How smartphone AI works
- On-device AI: The phone processes a task locally. This can improve responsiveness and reduce the need to upload sensitive information, although local processing uses battery, storage and computing resources.
- Cloud-assisted AI: The request is sent to remote servers. Cloud models may be more capable, but they require connectivity and raise additional data-governance questions.
- Hybrid AI: The phone handles some work locally and sends more demanding tasks to the cloud.
Common 2024 applications included translation, transcription, note and webpage summaries, writing assistance, call screening, search, photo editing and object removal. These are most valuable when they solve recurring problems, such as making meetings searchable or helping a user communicate across languages.
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The weaker use cases were novelty demonstrations that were impressive once but did not improve a frequent task. Before paying a premium for an AI-branded phone, check:
- Which features work without an internet connection.
- Whether your language and country are supported.
- How photos, recordings, messages and prompts are handled.
- Whether features are free for the expected ownership period.
- Whether the phone’s battery and storage can handle the workload.
- How long the manufacturer promises updates and AI-feature support.
Apple Intelligence availability, for example, depends on device generation, operating-system version, language and region. Feature availability can also change after launch. The label “AI smartphone” is therefore not a guarantee of a fixed, universal feature set.
Foldables found a strategic role, but not the mainstream
Foldables were commercially meaningful in 2024 without becoming a mass-market replacement for conventional phones. Clamshell models such as the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip6 and Motorola Razr 2024 fold into a smaller footprint. Book-style models such as the Galaxy Z Fold6 open into a larger, tablet-like workspace.
The benefits are clear:
- A larger display without carrying a full-size tablet.
- New multitasking and hands-free viewing formats.
- A distinctive design in an otherwise mature product category.
- A way for manufacturers to defend premium prices.
The trade-offs remain substantial: higher prices, thickness, weight, screen creases, uncertain durability, expensive repairs, battery compromises and inconsistent app layouts. A foldable can be the right purchase for someone who values the form factor, but it is not automatically better value than a conventional flagship.
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IDC’s smartphone market commentary continues to frame foldables as a small-volume category, even though they can help manufacturers defend premium pricing. See IDC’s market commentary. The next stage of foldable growth depends on thinner designs, stronger hinges and screens, lower repair costs, better battery life, dependable software support and meaningful price reductions.
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5G became infrastructure rather than a headline feature
5G continued to expand in 2024, particularly in developing markets where consumers were moving from older 4G or 3G devices. IDC forecast 5G shipments to grow 15.9% in 2024, with 5G representing 67.2% of smartphone shipments in that forecast. That was a forecast, not a final audited result; the summary is available through IDC’s forecast listing.
By 2024, 5G was increasingly standard in mid-range and premium phones rather than an exclusive flagship feature. But a 5G logo does not guarantee a noticeably better experience. Real-world value depends on local coverage, spectrum, carrier plans, congestion, modem quality and battery impact.
For a buyer, 5G matters most when:
- Your carrier offers reliable 5G where you live and work.
- Your current phone lacks compatible bands or has poor network performance.
- You plan to keep the phone for several years as networks expand.
If your local network is weak or your plan does not provide meaningful 5G access, paying extra solely for the logo may not be worthwhile.
Regional competition changed the global balance
There is no single “global smartphone consumer.” The economics of a phone differ sharply by region.
China
Domestic brands remained highly influential. Huawei’s recovery was particularly significant in China, while Apple faced stronger local competition and discounting pressure. A Canalys result cited in secondary coverage indicated that vivo and Huawei outperformed Apple in China during 2024; that comparison should be treated cautiously because the available source is a secondary citation rather than a directly reviewed Canalys report. The broader point is more durable: premium competition in China is no longer simply Apple versus Samsung.
India and other emerging markets
Growth was supported by affordable Android phones, 5G migration, expanding smartphone adoption, local manufacturing and aggressive competition across price tiers. Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, realme, Motorola, Transsion and HONOR each have different regional strengths. Transsion, for example, is especially important in Africa and selected emerging markets, while other brands are stronger in Asia or Latin America.
The United States and other affluent markets
Longer replacement cycles, carrier financing and trade-in programs shaped purchasing decisions. Apple retained a strong premium position, but buyers increasingly compared software support, ecosystem integration, resale value and total ownership cost rather than specifications alone.
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Omdia’s 2024 annual shipment table reported the following approximate figures:
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- LIVE FAST. CHARGE FASTER: Focus more on the moment and less on your battery percentage with Galaxy A17 5G. Super Fast Charging powers up your battery so you can get back to life sooner.²
- MEMORIES MADE PICTURE PERFECT: Capture every angle in stunning clarity, from wide family photos to close-ups of friends, with the triple-lens camera on Galaxy A17 5G.
- NEED MORE STORAGE? WE HAVE YOU COVERED: With an improved 2TB of expandable storage, Galaxy A17 5G makes it easy to keep cherished photos, videos and important files readily accessible whenever you need them.³
- BUILT TO LAST: With an improved IP54 rating, Galaxy A17 5G is even more durable than before.⁴ It’s built to resist splashes and dust and comes with a stronger yet slimmer Gorilla Glass Victus front and Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer back.
| Brand | Shipments | Approx. share | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 225.9 million | 18% | -1.4% |
| Samsung | 222.9 million | 18% | -1.1% |
| Xiaomi | 168.6 million | 14% | +15.4% |
| vivo | 100.9 million | 8% | +13.9% |
| OPPO | 90.4 million | 7% | +7.3% |
| HONOR | 64.0 million | 5% | +13.4% |
| Lenovo/Motorola | 57.5 million | 5% | +24.3% |
| Huawei | 48.4 million | 4% | +35.8% |
These are shipment estimates, not revenue rankings or a measure of customer satisfaction. Apple’s premium concentration makes its financial importance much larger than its unit share alone suggests. Motorola is reported under Lenovo in some datasets, and different firms may classify brands and affiliated companies differently. Avoid treating Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, HONOR, Transsion and Huawei as interchangeable competitors; their geographic footprints, distribution models and product strategies differ.
The Omdia figures are available in its 2024 smartphone report.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Longer ownership may be the most important smartphone trend
In a mature category, progress is not limited to faster processors or more megapixels. Longer software and security support, replaceable batteries, repair access, reliable cameras, efficient displays and better resale value can matter more over the full ownership period.
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Sustainability is similarly broader than recycled-material percentages. Manufacturing a new phone has an environmental cost, so keeping a device in use longer can be highly consequential. A phone made with recycled materials but replaced every two years may have a less favorable lifecycle than a repairable phone used for five or six years. The outcome depends on manufacturing, energy use, repair rates, software support, resale, recycling and user behavior.
Relevant developments include recycled materials, smaller packaging, battery replacement programs, repairability initiatives and the growth of refurbished markets. The GSMA’s report on mobile phones and circularity provides broader context.
There are also trade-offs. Sealed designs can improve water resistance while making repairs more difficult. A long support promise is less useful if replacement batteries are unavailable or repairs cost nearly as much as a replacement. Sustainability claims should therefore be assessed through the entire ownership cycle rather than a single marketing statistic.
Privacy, security and regulation will shape the next market
On-device processing can reduce the need to upload sensitive information, but it does not automatically guarantee privacy. Cloud AI services create questions about retention, access, training use and data location. Buyers should read the manufacturer’s privacy documentation for the specific feature instead of assuming that all AI processing happens locally.
Longer security-update commitments also have a direct financial benefit: they make it safer to keep a phone rather than replacing it early. Regional right-to-repair rules, USB-C requirements, app-store policies and platform regulation can affect product design, repair access and feature availability. These rules differ by country, so a claim about a smartphone feature or repair right should be geographically qualified.
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What is likely to persist after 2024?
AI will spread, but usefulness will determine its value
AI capabilities are likely to move into more mid-range phones as specialized hardware becomes common. The durable winners will probably be features that save time or improve accessibility: translation, transcription, organization, spam filtering, camera assistance and contextual search. A product label alone will not prove that an AI phone is worth upgrading to.
Premiumization will continue alongside affordability pressure
Manufacturers will continue emphasizing expensive models, financing and trade-ins. At the same time, consumers will compare older flagships, discounted previous-generation devices, repair and refurbished alternatives more carefully. Market value can rise even while unit growth remains modest.
Foldables will improve before they become mainstream
Foldables provide valuable differentiation, but their mainstream future depends on solving durability, repair, thickness, battery and price problems. They are a strategic premium category, not yet evidence that conventional slab phones are disappearing.
Support lifetime will become a stronger buying criterion
As phones become more expensive and replacement cycles lengthen, buyers will pay more attention to security updates, operating-system support, battery replacement, repair networks and resale value.
Refurbished devices will become part of the normal upgrade decision
A two-year-old iPhone, Galaxy S-series model or Pixel may offer most of the experience of a new flagship at a lower price. The trade-off is remaining support, battery condition, warranty coverage, cosmetic quality and carrier compatibility. Certified refurbished devices offer more predictable standards than anonymous used listings, but they still require careful checking.
Should you upgrade? A personal-finance decision framework
The 2024 market suggests evaluating the ownership economics first, not the launch event.
- Check your current phone. Review battery health, security-update status, storage capacity, screen and charging-port condition, network compatibility and repair options.
- Identify the actual need. A new phone may be justified by failing battery life, unsupported software, poor camera performance, accessibility requirements, gaming demands or a genuinely useful AI feature. “New” alone is not a financial reason.
- Estimate the ownership horizon. Divide the total cost by the realistic years of use. Include expected battery replacement and repair costs.
- Calculate the full price. Include financing interest, trade-in assumptions, insurance, accessories, cloud storage, AI subscriptions, taxes, carrier lock-in and the opportunity cost of using savings.
- Compare alternatives. Consider a battery replacement, repair, previous-generation flagship, certified refurbished phone or lower-cost new model.
- Verify regional features. Confirm that AI tools, 5G bands, satellite services, warranty coverage and software support apply in your country and language.
A premium phone can be good value when it replaces an unreliable device and will be supported for many years. It can be poor value when purchased on expensive credit for features you will rarely use.
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2024 showed a smartphone market recovering in shipments while becoming more expensive, more regionally fragmented and more dependent on premium features. Generative AI became the central product narrative, but useful adoption remains separate from AI hardware capability. Foldables created meaningful differentiation without becoming mainstream, and 5G continued its transition from novelty to infrastructure.
The most durable future trend may be simpler: phones will increasingly be judged by how long they remain secure, repairable, useful and valuable—not just by what they can do on launch day. For many buyers, keeping an existing phone, replacing its battery or choosing a well-supported refurbished model may be a smarter financial decision than buying the newest flagship.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
