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Mainland China’s smartphone market shipped approximately 68.46 million devices in Q3 2025, a 0.5% year-on-year decline, according to IDC’s later tracker update. The small contraction masks a more important shift in the competitive order: vivo remained the largest vendor by shipments, while Apple moved into second place behind stronger demand for the iPhone 17 series.
For investors, suppliers and retailers, the result points to a flat-to-declining market with intensified share redistribution—not a collapse in Chinese smartphone demand.
What IDC’s Q3 2025 figure measures
IDC’s figure refers to smartphone shipments in mainland China during calendar Q3, from July 1 through September 30, 2025. It is not the same as retail sell-through, activations or revenue. Shipments can reflect vendor inventory, channel stocking and product-launch timing as well as immediate consumer purchases.
IDC’s tracker covers new branded devices and excludes refurbished phones. Its figures are preliminary market-tracker data and may be revised. “Year over year” means Q3 2025 compared with Q3 2024. IDC’s methodology notes provide additional detail.
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The headline numbers
| Metric | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|
| Mainland China smartphone shipments | Approximately 68.46 million |
| Year-on-year change | Down 0.5% |
| Foldable-phone shipments | 2.63 million |
| Foldable year-on-year change | Up 17.8% |
| First-nine-month foldable shipments | 7.62 million, up 14.3% |
IDC’s earlier preliminary release on October 15 described the quarter as approximately 68.4 million shipments, down 0.6%. The later November figure of 68.46 million and 0.5% decline is the preferred estimate, while the earlier number explains why both figures appear in coverage. IDC’s later China market update contains the revised headline data.
Vendor rankings: a close race at the top
The six leading brands were separated by only about two million shipments. That means launch timing, promotions, channel inventory and product mix could materially change the rankings even when the overall market barely moved.
| Vendor | Shipments | Approx. share | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| vivo | 11.8 million | 17.2%–17.3% | Down 7.8% |
| Apple | 10.8 million | 15.8% | Up 0.6% |
| Huawei | 10.4 million | 15.2% | Down 1.0% |
| Xiaomi | 10.0 million | 14.7% | Down 1.7% |
| OPPO | 9.9 million | 14.5% | Up 0.4% |
| Honor | 9.8 million | 14.4% | Down 2.1% |
The shipment and share figures are approximate because the available summaries round the underlying data. OPPO and Honor were effectively tied for fifth place. The detailed vendor table was reported by Beijing Business Today.
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vivo: still first, but losing momentum
vivo retained the No. 1 shipment position, yet its 7.8% decline was substantially worse than the market’s 0.5% fall. Leadership by volume therefore did not equal positive momentum. In a tightly packed market, a brand can remain first while losing share relative to faster-moving competitors.
Apple: a modest increase with a major ranking effect
Apple shipped about 10.8 million iPhones, up 0.6% year over year, and moved into second place. IDC linked the improvement to the iPhone 17 series, particularly the base iPhone 17’s appeal to value-conscious buyers. Reuters also reported the 10.8 million figure and Apple’s 0.6% increase.
The timing matters. The iPhone 17 launch occurred near the end of Q3, so its Q3 contribution represented only part of the product cycle. A modest unit increase was enough to lift Apple’s ranking because the market leaders were so closely grouped. The result is evidence of improved quarterly positioning, not proof that Apple had resolved all of its longer-term challenges in China.
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Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and Honor
Huawei remained close behind Apple in third place, with approximately 10.4 million shipments and a 1.0% decline. Xiaomi ranked fourth at about 10 million units, down 1.7%. OPPO’s roughly 9.9 million shipments represented slight 0.4% growth, while Honor shipped approximately 9.8 million, down 2.1%.
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Why the market softened
IDC described Q3 as a traditional low season for smartphones in China and pointed to three additional pressures:
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- Fewer major launches: Many important annual flagships arrived from mid-to-late September, leaving less time to affect Q3 shipments and potentially shifting their impact into Q4.
- Weaker subsidy support: IDC said national subsidy policies became less supportive. That can raise the effective purchase price, reduce urgency and shift demand toward eligible or lower-priced models. This does not establish that subsidies were withdrawn nationwide.
- Demand pulled forward: Some purchases may have moved into the first half of 2025, leaving less replacement demand for Q3.
IDC also characterized consumer spending as more rational. That should be read as an analyst interpretation rather than proof that consumers stopped buying phones. The shipment decline was slight, and the data does not support describing demand as collapsed.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Foldables show where demand remained resilient
Foldable phones moved in the opposite direction from the broader market. IDC recorded 2.63 million foldable shipments in Q3, up 17.8% year over year. First-nine-month shipments reached 7.62 million, up 14.3%, and IDC expected the full-year Chinese foldable market to approach 10 million units.
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Why another tracker reported a larger decline
Omdia estimated that mainland China’s smartphone shipments fell 3% year over year in Q3 2025—materially weaker than IDC’s later 0.5% estimate. Omdia also placed vivo first, with about 11.8 million shipments, while Apple ranked among the top three with approximately 10.1 million units.
The estimates should not be averaged or treated as a simple contradiction. Market trackers can differ in channel coverage, shipment definitions, brand classifications and revision schedules. For an article about IDC’s report, IDC remains the source of record. Omdia’s estimate is useful as a reminder that the precise size of the decline depends on methodology. Both trackers pointed to a soft market and intense competition.
See Omdia’s Q3 release for its estimate and ranking.
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What happened after Q3
Later IDC data showed that the weakness continued through the year, although Q3 was not the worst quarter. China’s smartphone shipments declined 0.6% for full-year 2025, while Q4 shipments fell 0.8% year over year to 75.8 million units. IDC cited rising memory costs and fading subsidy effects as additional pressures in the later period.
Apple’s momentum also strengthened after Q3: IDC later said Apple led China’s monthly sales data in October and November 2025 with more than 20% share and raised its China Q4 forecast. That is subsequent evidence, not something that should be treated as fully known when the initial Q3 result was published. The later figures are available in IDC’s press-release archive.
Quick Recap
What the quarter means for market observers
- For investors: The aggregate market offers little volume growth, so share gains and premium product mix matter more than headline shipments.
- For manufacturers: Product timing, differentiated form factors and pricing discipline can determine rank in a market where the leading vendors are tightly clustered.
- For retailers and distributors: Subsidy availability and flagship launch calendars can change quarterly inventory patterns, making sell-in data an imperfect proxy for immediate consumer demand.
- For consumers: A declining market does not mean every segment or brand is weakening. Premium launches and foldables continued to attract demand, while price-sensitive purchases were more exposed to subsidy changes.
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