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Some 2026 health insurance costs are rising well above inflation, but there is no single increase that applies to most people across every type of coverage. ACA Marketplace benchmark premiums rose sharply, while the widely cited employer figure is a forecast of total benefit costs—not a measured increase in every worker’s paycheck deduction. What you pay depends on your market, plan, employer contribution and, for Marketplace coverage, tax credits.
What the 2026 figures show
The answer depends on which premium is being measured. Marketplace benchmark premiums, an employer plan’s total cost and an employee’s share of that cost are different measures. Inflation is a separate comparison: a premium increase above inflation means coverage costs are rising faster than the general price level, not that every household’s bill rose by the same percentage.
| Coverage measure | 2026 or latest reported figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| ACA Marketplace benchmark premiums | Average increase of 21.7% in 2026, in Urban Institute analysis summarized by the Commonwealth Fund. | A benchmark full-premium measure; it is not the amount every enrollee pays after tax credits. |
| Employer health benefit costs | Mercer’s 2025 survey projected a 6.5% average increase per employee in total employer health benefit costs for 2026, after planned cost-reduction measures; its projection without those changes was nearly 9%. | A forecast of total benefit costs, not a verified increase in each worker’s premium contribution. |
| Employer-sponsored family coverage | KFF’s 2025 employer survey found an average annual premium of $26,993, up 6% from 2024. | The total premium for family coverage, not necessarily the amount paid by an employee. |
For context, KFF reported 2.7% inflation in 2025 alongside the 6% year-over-year increase in employer-sponsored family premiums. Across the five years through 2025, family premiums rose 26%, compared with 23.5% inflation. The one-year comparison shows faster growth; the five-year comparison is closer. Neither supports a claim that health premiums have outpaced inflation by the same margin in every year or market.
Why Marketplace enrollees may feel a larger increase
The 21.7% figure measures the full premium for a benchmark plan, not an enrollee’s net monthly bill. What an individual pays after financial assistance depends on the plan, location, income and applicable tax credits. In addition to the benchmark increase, enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired at the start of 2026, raising net premiums for many people who had benefited from them.
In May 2026, the Associated Press reported KFF analysis estimating that average ACA premium payments had risen 58%. That is a reported midyear estimate, not a final federal tally. The same reporting described KFF’s estimate that Marketplace enrollment could fall 21%, from 22.3 million in 2025 to around 17.5 million in 2026; that, too, was an estimate rather than a final federal enrollment count. These figures concern Marketplace enrollees and should not be applied to employer coverage or all Americans.
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Why employer coverage costs are rising
Employer forecasts reflect the cost of providing benefits, which can include both the employer’s share and the employee’s share. Mercer’s 2025 survey identified higher healthcare prices and greater use of services as the two main cost drivers. Its US Chief Actuary for Health and Benefits, Sunit Patel, said: “Health benefit cost trend has two primary components –healthcare price and utilization. Right now, both are rising.”
- Higher prices: Mercer cited costly new treatments, provider consolidation and healthcare wages among factors affecting what care costs.
- More utilization: When people use more healthcare services, total plan spending can rise even if the price of each service is unchanged.
- Marketplace-specific effects: The subsidy expiration affects what eligible enrollees pay after credits. Changes associated with enrollment and the composition of the remaining risk pool can also affect Marketplace costs; these effects are distinct from the underlying cost of medical care.
Employers can respond to rising benefit costs by changing plan design as well as by paying more. Mercer advised employers to review benefit choices and enrollment. A plan that holds down the monthly premium may shift more costs to workers when they receive care.
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How to estimate your own increase
Start with your actual renewal or plan-year documents rather than applying a national percentage to your current bill. Compare the same coverage type and separate the total premium from the amount you personally pay.
- Identify your coverage market. Is it an ACA Marketplace plan, an employer plan, or another type of coverage? Do not use the Marketplace benchmark increase to estimate an employer-plan change.
- Compare like with like. Use the same location, coverage tier, plan year, subsidy assumptions and premium measure. For employer coverage, check whether the quoted amount is the total premium or only your payroll contribution.
- For Marketplace coverage, check the net premium. Review the amount after any tax credit and confirm the income and household information used to calculate eligibility. A full-premium increase and a net-premium increase are not interchangeable.
- Compare the costs of using the plan. Check the deductible, copays or coinsurance, annual out-of-pocket maximum and provider network, as well as the monthly premium. A lower premium can come with higher cost sharing or a network that does not include the providers you need.
- For an employer plan, inspect the renewal options. Compare each available plan’s payroll deductions and cost-sharing terms before choosing. An employer’s forecast of total benefit costs does not tell you the exact change to your own contribution.
What these figures do not establish
The available 2026 figures do not establish that premiums rose above inflation for every person or every insurance market. The Marketplace benchmark increase is an average for a specific measure, and Marketplace net costs vary with tax credits. The employer numbers are survey results and projections, not a confirmed 2026 increase for every worker. The cited evidence also does not establish final observed 2026 Medicare Part B or Part D amounts, so those programs should not be assigned a definitive increase based on these figures.
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