What’s actually slowing this PC down?
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Yes, the warning is credible—but it does not mean every laptop or desktop will suddenly cost the same amount more. IDC currently forecasts global PC average selling prices to rise approximately 18.3% in 2026 while shipments fall about 11.3%. IDC also expects the memory shortage to persist without meaningful relief before the end of 2027. [IDC]
For U.S. buyers, the practical answer is conditional: buy sooner if you need a computer or a high-memory configuration, but do not panic-buy an unsuitable system. If your current PC works well, waiting for a sale can still make sense—provided you compare the exact RAM, SSD, upgradeability, and warranty.
Why the original warning needs an update
The warning originated in a December 21, 2025 report that cited possible supplier price increases and a projected 4.9% decline in PC shipments. That coverage was directionally right, but the later public outlook is more severe. IDC now forecasts an approximately 11.3% decline in global PC shipments and an 18.3% increase in average selling prices during 2026. It says the market could worsen toward a roughly 20% year-over-year shipment decline in the fourth quarter. [Original report] [Updated IDC outlook]
Those are global forecasts, not guarantees for every U.S. retail model. Currency movements, tariffs, retailer inventory, promotions, supply contracts, and product mix can produce very different results from one computer to another.
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What is actually in short supply?
“Memory shortage” is an umbrella term covering several related markets:
- DRAM: System memory, including DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR5 and LPDDR5X used in desktops, laptops, and servers.
- HBM: High-bandwidth memory used with many AI accelerators. It is not interchangeable with ordinary desktop DIMMs, but it competes for manufacturing capacity, wafer allocation, advanced packaging, and investment.
- NAND flash: The storage technology inside SSDs. NAND conditions can raise SSD prices independently of RAM prices.
- Graphics memory: GDDR and HBM supply can affect graphics cards, although GPU silicon, board supply, demand, and retailer inventory also matter.
- Finished modules: Chip availability and the supply of retail RAM kits or OEM-ready memory are not identical. A store can have modules in stock while manufacturers face tighter allocation.
The central issue is product mix and capacity allocation—not that AI systems literally use ordinary PC RAM in place of desktop memory. IDC and TrendForce report that suppliers are prioritizing high-capacity server memory and HBM for AI infrastructure. [IDC] [TrendForce]
How AI servers put pressure on PC prices
- Cloud providers and hyperscalers expand AI infrastructure.
- AI servers consume large quantities of HBM and high-capacity server DRAM.
- Memory manufacturers have stronger incentives to direct limited capacity toward those higher-margin products.
- PC and smartphone manufacturers compete for the remaining conventional DRAM and NAND supply.
- When several large buyers seek allocation at the same time, suppliers gain pricing power.
Windows 10 also matters, but for a different reason. Windows 10 support ended in October 2025, helping create a replacement and upgrade cycle. It increased PC demand; it did not itself cause the memory shortage. AI-server investment affected the supply-demand balance. [Micron investor materials]
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What the memory-price figures really mean
TrendForce has reported unusually large increases in contract pricing:
| Market measure | Reported forecast or update |
|---|---|
| Conventional DRAM | Up 55–60% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026 |
| NAND flash | Up 33–38% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026 |
| Conventional DRAM | Up 58–63% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026 |
| NAND flash | Up 70–75% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026 |
| Separate 1Q26 industry update | Approximately 93–98% quarter-over-quarter conventional DRAM increase |
[TrendForce Q1 outlook] [TrendForce February update] [TrendForce Q2 outlook] [TrendForce industry update]
A 60% increase in a memory contract does not mean a finished laptop will cost 60% more. RAM and storage are only parts of a computer’s bill of materials. Manufacturers may absorb some costs, use older inventory, change specifications, reduce discounts, or adjust product tiers.
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Which buyers face the most risk?
Laptop buyers
Laptops are vulnerable because memory is often soldered and cannot be upgraded. Buyers may see higher prices for 16GB, 24GB, and 32GB configurations, fewer high-memory models at lower prices, and larger price gaps between otherwise similar systems. TrendForce lowered its 2026 notebook-shipment forecast to a 9.4% decline while expecting sharp increases in notebook DRAM and SSD contract pricing. [TrendForce]
If you expect to use virtual machines, creative software, large projects, or local AI tools, paying for the required RAM at purchase can be safer than assuming a future upgrade will be inexpensive—or possible.
Desktop and DIY buyers
Desktop builders see component prices more directly, particularly for DIMMs and SSDs. They also have more ways to reduce exposure: reuse a case, power supply, graphics card, or existing storage; buy a barebones system; or upgrade one component at a time.
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- Dell Optiplex 3050 SFF Desktop computer PC, Intel Quad Core i5-6500 up to 3.6GHz, 16GB DDR4, 256GB SSD
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- Port: Front: USB 3.0(2), USB 2.0(2); Rear: DP, HDMI, USB 3.0(2), USB 2.0(2), RJ-45.
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DIY is not automatically cheaper during a component shortage. Buying several scarce parts separately can cost more than a prebuilt system assembled from an OEM’s earlier inventory or volume contracts. Adding a second, mismatched memory kit can also create stability problems, especially at advertised XMP or EXPO speeds.
Gaming-PC buyers
Gaming systems are affected by RAM and SSD costs, but not every price change is a memory story. Graphics-card pricing also depends on GPU silicon, board supply, demand, and retailer inventory. Evaluate the complete system rather than attributing every increase to DRAM or NAND.
Business buyers
Large businesses may benefit from volume contracts, allocation agreements, and existing inventory. A business prebuilt can therefore be more competitive than an equivalent retail parts list, even when its headline specifications look similar.
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- Connectivity: Includes WiFi, Bluetooth, and LAN for wireless and wired connections
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AI-PC buyers
IDC notes that Copilot+ PCs require at least 16GB of RAM. That makes this category particularly exposed to memory costs. However, 16GB is a minimum requirement, not a promise that every demanding local-AI or professional workload will run comfortably. “AI PC” is also a broad marketing label, so compare the actual processor, RAM, storage, and software needs. [IDC]
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How manufacturers may raise prices without raising the sticker price
The shortage may appear in less obvious ways:
- Higher prices for the same configuration.
- Fewer discounts or shorter promotional periods.
- Less RAM or a smaller SSD at the same advertised price.
- Removal or delay of particular configurations.
- Higher price premiums for 32GB or larger systems.
- More emphasis on efficient processors and software to soften performance differences.
- Priority allocation for enterprise or premium products.
IDC specifically identifies new silicon, a more efficient operating system, aggressive promotions, and changes to product portfolios as possible vendor responses. [IDC]
Should you buy a PC now?
Buy sooner when:
- Your current computer is failing or no longer meets work or school requirements.
- You need a Windows 11-compatible replacement.
- You need 32GB or more of RAM.
- You have found acceptable RAM or SSD pricing for a planned desktop build.
- You need a specific laptop with a particular display, port selection, GPU, or upgrade path.
- A reliable sale applies to the exact configuration you want.
Waiting is reasonable when:
- Your current PC is adequate.
- You want a mainstream 16GB system with flexible specifications.
- You can wait for normal sales cycles.
- You are open to refurbished or previous-generation hardware.
- You are waiting for a specific processor or GPU launch—not merely hoping memory prices will quickly return to their old pattern.
The best approach is to set a target configuration first, then track its total cost. Do not compare a discounted laptop with 8GB RAM and a 256GB SSD against a full-price model with 32GB and a 1TB SSD as though they were equivalent.
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- Check system RAM: Compare 16GB, 24GB, 32GB, or more based on your workload.
- Check the memory type: Identify DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR5/LPDDR5X, and whether it is soldered or socketed.
- Verify upgradeability: Confirm the number of slots, maximum supported capacity, module type, and the exact model—not just the product family.
- Inspect storage: Compare SSD capacity, form factor, interface, and replaceability. A smaller SSD can hide a price-preserving downgrade.
- Separate GPU memory from system RAM: VRAM does not replace ordinary system memory.
- Calculate upgrade cost: Include RAM, SSD, tools, labor, and any warranty implications.
- Prefer compatible matched kits: For desktops, use memory listed for the motherboard and processor platform rather than combining unrelated kits.
- Consider lifetime value: A repairable or upgradeable system may justify a higher initial price.
Framework, ThinkPad, Latitude, and other repair-oriented or business systems can be worth considering, but upgradeability must be confirmed for the exact model. Retailers and component brands can help with price discovery, yet buyers should check seller identity, return terms, warranty coverage, and whether a listing is new, used, or refurbished.
Refurbished PCs may be a practical alternative
Used business laptops and desktops can reduce exposure to new-system pricing, particularly when the required workload is modest. Check battery health, warranty, Windows licensing, firmware locks, soldered memory, storage condition, and upgrade options before buying. A refurbished computer with adequate existing RAM may be better value than a new entry-level system that cannot be upgraded.
What could improve the outlook?
The market could ease if new memory capacity and packaging become available, AI-server demand weakens, PC demand falls further, inventories correct, or suppliers change their allocation strategy. These are possible scenarios, not reliable predictions. IDC’s current view is that meaningful relief is unlikely before the end of 2027. [IDC]
Quick Recap
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